The Monte Carlo EM method for estimating multinomial probit latent variable models

We propose a multinomial probit (MNP) model that is defined by a factor analysis model with covariates for analyzing unordered categorical data, and discuss its identification. Some useful MNP models are special cases of the proposed model. To obtain maximum likelihood estimates, we use the EM algorithm with its M-step greatly simplified under Conditional Maximization and its E-step made feasible by Monte Carlo simulation. Standard errors are calculated by inverting a Monte Carlo approximation of the information matrix using Louis’s method. The methodology is illustrated with a simulated data.     

The breakdown behavior of the maximum likelihood estimator in the logistic regression model

In this note we discuss the breakdown behavior of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator in the logistic regression model. We formally prove that the ML-estimator never explodes to infinity, but rather breaks down to zero when adding severe outliers to a data set. An example confirms this behavior.     

多项Probit模型参数的极大似然估计

本文考虑多项probit模型中参数的极大似然估计(MLE)的存在性.在协方差阵已知和均匀结构两种情况下,给出MLE存在的充要条件.     

A threshold accepting heuristic with intense local search for the solution of special instances of the traveling salesman problem

In real life scheduling, variations of the standard traveling salesman problem are very often encountered. The aim of this work is to present a new heuristic method for solving three such special instances with a common approach. The proposed algorithm uses a variant of the threshold accepting method, enhanced with intense local search, while the candidate solutions are produced through an insertion heuristic scheme. The main characteristic of the algorithm is that it does not require modifications and parameter tuning in order to cope with the three different problems. Computational results on a variety of real life and artificial problems are presented at the end of this work and prove the efficiency and the ascendancy of the proposed method over other algorithms found in the literature.     

A scatter search algorithm for the distributed permutation flowshop scheduling problem

The distributed permutation flowshop problem has been recently proposed as a generalization of the regular flowshop setting where more than one factory is available to process jobs. Distributed manufacturing is a common situation for large enterprises that compete in a globalized market. The problem has two dimensions: assigning jobs to factories and scheduling the jobs assigned to each factory. Despite being recently introduced, this interesting scheduling problem has attracted attention and several heuristic and metaheuristic methods have been proposed in the literature. In this paper we present a scatter search (SS) method for this problem to optimize makespan. SS has seldom been explored for flowshop settings. In the proposed algorithm we employ some advanced techniques like a reference set made up of complete and partial solutions along with other features like restarts and local search. A comprehensive computational campaign including 10 existing algorithms, together with statistical analyses, shows that the proposed scatter search algorithm produces better results than existing algorithms by a significant margin. Moreover all 720 known best solutions for this problem are improved.     

A hybrid scatter search heuristic for personalized crew rostering in the airline industry

The crew scheduling problem in the airline industry is extensively investigated in the operations research literature since efficient crew employment can drastically reduce operational costs of airline companies. Given the flight schedule of an airline company, crew scheduling is the process of assigning all necessary crew members in such a way that the airline is able to operate all its flights and constructing a roster line for each employee minimizing the corresponding overall cost for personnel. In this paper, we present a scatter search algorithm for the airline crew rostering problem. The objective is to assign a personalized roster to each crew member minimizing the overall operational costs while ensuring the social quality of the schedule. We combine different complementary meta-heuristic crew scheduling combination and improvement principles. Detailed computational experiments in a real-life problem environment are presented investigating all characteristics of the procedure. Moreover, we compare the proposed scatter search algorithm with optimal solutions obtained by an exact branch-and-price procedure and a steepest descent variable neighbourhood search.     

The asymptotic equivalence of Bayes and maximum likelihood estimation

Let (X, $\text{A}$) be a measurable space, Θ ? $\text{R}$ an open interval and P_Ω ∥ $\text{A}$, Ω ? Θ, a family of probability measures fulfilling certain regularity conditions. Let $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}$ be the maximum likelihood estimate for the sample size n. Let λ be a prior distribution on Θ and let $\text{R}{}_{\mathrm{<mtext>n,</mtext><mtext>x</mtext>}}$ be the posterior distribution for the sample size n given $\text{x}\text{? X}{}^{\mathrm{n}}$. $\text{L:}\text{Θ}\text{× Θ →}\text{R}$ denotes a loss function fulfilling certain regularity conditions and T_n denotes the Bayes estimate relative to λ and L for the sample size n. It is proved that for every compact K ? Θ there exists c_K ≥ 0 such that

This theorem improves results of Bickel and Yahav [3], and Ibragimov and Has'minskii [4], as far as the speed of convergence is concerned.     

Diversified local search strategy under scatter search framework for the probabilistic traveling salesman problem

This paper focuses on introducing a concept of diversified local search strategy under the scatter search framework for the probabilistic traveling salesman problem (PTSP). Different combinations of three commonly used local search methods in the PTSP, i.e., 1-shift, 2-opt, and 3-opt, were used to investigate its effects. A set of numerical experiments were conducted to test the validity of the proposed strategy based on randomly generated test instances. The numerical results and the permutation test showed that the diversified local search strategy, especially by combining 1-shift and 2-opt algorithms, can most effectively solve the homogeneous and heterogeneous PTSP in most of the tested instances in comparison with the single local search strategy under scatter search framework.     

A matrix formula for the skewness of maximum likelihood estimators

We give a general matrix formula for computing the second-order skewness of maximum likelihood estimators. The formula was firstly presented in a tensorial version by Bowman and Shenton (1998). Our matrix formulation has numerical advantages, since it requires only simple operations on matrices and vectors. We apply the second-order skewness formula to a normal model with a generalized parametrization and to an ARMA model.     

Limit theorems for the maximum likelihood estimate under general multiply Type II censoring

Assume n items are put on a life-time test, however for various reasons we have only observed the r ₁-th,..., r _k-th failure times % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXafv3ySLgzGmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2D% aebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaibaiiYdd9qrFfea0dXdf9vqai-hEir8Ve% ea0de9qq-hbrpepeea0db9q8as0-LqLs-Jirpepeea0-as0Fb9pgea% 0lrP0xe9Fve9Fve9qapdbaqaaeGacaGaaiaabeqaamaabaabcaGcba% GaamiEamaaBaaaleaamiaadkhadaWgaaqaaSGaaGymaiaacYcaaWqa% baGaamOBaiaacYcacaGGUaGaaiOlaiaac6caaSqabaGccaGGSaGaam% iEamaaBaaaleaamiaadkhadaWgaaqaaSGaam4AaiaacYcaaWqabaGa% amOBaaWcbeaaaaa!48BB!\[x_{r_{1,} n,...} ,x_{r_{k,} n} \]with % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXafv3ySLgzGmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2D% aebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaibaiiYdd9qrFfea0dXdf9vqai-hEir8Ve% ea0de9qq-hbrpepeea0db9q8as0-LqLs-Jirpepeea0-as0Fb9pgea% 0lrP0xe9Fve9Fve9qapdbaqaaeGacaGaaiaabeqaamaabaabcaGcba% GaaGimaiabgsMiJkaadIhadaWgaaWcbaadcaWGYbWaaSbaaeaaliaa% igdacaGGSaaameqaaiaad6gaaSqabaGccqGHKjYOcqWIVlctcqGHKj% YOcaWG4bWaaSbaaSqaaWGaamOCamaaBaaabaWccaWGRbGaaiilaaad% beaacaWGUbaaleqaaeXatLxBI9gBaGqbaOGae8hpaWJaeyOhIukaaa!521B!\[0 \le x_{r_{1,} n} \le \cdots \le x_{r_{k,} n} > \infty \]. This is a multiply Type II censored sample. A special case where each x _ri ,n goes to a particular percentile of the population has been studied by various authors. But for the general situation where the number of gaps as well as the number of unobserved values in some gaps goes to , the asymptotic properties of MLE are still not clear. In this paper, we derive the conditions under which the maximum likelihood estimate of is consistent, asymptotically normal and efficient. As examples, we show that Weibull distribution, Gamma and Logistic distributions all satisfy these conditions.This research was supported in part by the Designated Research Initiative Fund, University of Maryland Baltimore County.     

Maximum likelihood estimation in the proportional hazards cure model

The proportional hazards cure model generalizes Cox’s proportional hazards model which allows that a proportion of study subjects may never experience the event of interest. Here nonparametric maximum likelihood approach is proposed to estimating the cumulative hazard and the regression parameters. The asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established using the modern empirical process theory. And the estimators for the regression parameters are shown to be semiparametric efficient.     

Finding maximum likelihood estimators for the three-parameter Weibull distribution

Much work has been devoted to the problem of finding maximum likelihood estimators for the three-parameter Weibull distribution. This problem has not been clearly recognized as a global optimization one and most methods from the literature occasionally fail to find a global optimum. We develop a global optimization algorithm which uses first order conditions and projection to reduce the problem to a univariate optimization one. Bounds on the resulting function and its first order derivative are obtained and used in a branch-and-bound scheme. Computational experience is reported. It is also shown that the solution method we propose can be extended to the case of right censored samples.     

A hybrid scatter search for the discrete time/resource trade-off problem in project scheduling

We develop a heuristic procedure for solving the discrete time/resource trade-off problem in the field of project scheduling. In this problem, a project contains activities interrelated by finish-start-type precedence constraints with a time lag of zero, which require one or more constrained renewable resources. Each activity has a specified work content and can be performed in different modes, i.e. with different durations and resource requirements, as long as the required work content is met. The objective is to schedule each activity in one of its modes in order to minimize the project makespan. We use a scatter search algorithm to tackle this problem, using path relinking methodology as a solution combination method. Computational results on randomly generated problem sets are compared with the best available results indicating the efficiency of the proposed algorithm.     

Limit theorems for maximum likelihood estimators in the Curie-Weiss-Potts model

The Curie-Weiss-Potts model, a model in statistical mechanics, is parametrized by the inverse temperature β and the external magnetic field h. This paper studies the asymptotic behavior of the maximum likelihood estimator of the parameter β when h = 0 and the asymptotic behavior of the maximum likelihood estimator of the parameter h when β is known and the true value of h is 0. The limits of these maximum likelihood estimators reflect the phase transition in the model; i.e., different limits depending on whether β < β_c, β = β_c or β > β_c, where β_c ε (0, ∞) is the critical inverse temperature of the model.     

Asymptotic behavior of maximum likelihood estimators in a branching diffusion model

In this paper the consistency and asymptotic normality of maximum-likelihood estimations for a super-critical branching diffusion model are obtained under certain conditions on its drift, variance and reproduction law. We proceeded by first studying the limit behavior of the Fisher information measure and related processes, and then verifying conditions established in Barndorff-Nielsen and Sørensen (Int stat Rev 62:133–165, 1994). This in turn uses the Martingale Law of Large Numbers as well as the Martingale Central Limit Theorem.     

A solution procedure for the discrete time, cost and quality tradeoff problem using electromagnetic scatter search

Decisions concerning a project’s expedition, traditionally involved considerations regarding time and cost tradeoff. It was recently suggested that the quality of a project should also be taken into considerations. In this paper, we propose a meta-heuristic solution procedure for the discrete time, cost and quality tradeoff problem. This problem involves the scheduling of project activities in order to minimize the total cost of the project while maximizing the quality of the project and also meeting a given deadline. We apply a so called electromagnetic scatter search to solve this problem. In this process, we initially generate a population of feasible solutions. In so doing, we use frequency memory to well sample the feasible region. A number of these solutions are then selected and improved locally. The improved solutions are then combined to generate new set of solutions. The combination process utilizes attraction–repulsion mechanisms borrowed from the electromagnetism theory. The whole process is stopped when no significant improvement in the set of solutions are observed. The validity of the proposed solution procedure is demonstrated, and its applicability is tested on a randomly generated large and complex problem having 19,900 activities.     

Tail index estimation for heavy tails: accommodation of bias in the excesses over a high threshold

In statistics of extremes, inference is often based on the excesses over a high random threshold. Those excesses are approximately distributed as the set of order statistics associated to a sample from a generalized Pareto model. We then get the so-called “maximum likelihood” estimators of the tail index γ. In this paper, we are interested in the derivation of the asymptotic distributional properties of a similar “maximum likelihood” estimator of a positive tail index γ, based also on the excesses over a high random threshold, but with a trial of accommodation of bias in the Pareto model underlying those excesses. We next proceed to an asymptotic comparison of the two estimators at their optimal levels. An illustration of the finite sample behaviour of the estimators is provided through a small-scale Monte Carlo simulation study. Research partially supported by FCT/POCTI and POCI/FEDER.     

BOOTSTRAP MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF THE PARAMETER IN SPECTRAL DENSITY OF STATIONARY PROCESSES

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