Spare parts management: Linking distributional assumptions to demand classification

Spare parts are known to be associated with intermittent demand patterns and such patterns cause considerable problems with regards to forecasting and stock control due to their compound nature that renders the normality assumption invalid. Compound distributions have been used to model intermittent demand patterns; there is however a lack of theoretical analysis and little relevant empirical evidence in support of these distributions. In this paper, we conduct a detailed empirical investigation on the goodness of fit of various compound Poisson distributions and we develop a distribution-based demand classification scheme the validity of which is also assessed in empirical terms. Our empirical investigation provides evidence in support of certain demand distributions and the work described in this paper should facilitate the task of selecting such distributions in a real world spare parts inventory context. An extensive discussion on parameter estimation related difficulties in this area is also provided.     

An inventory model for slow moving items subject to obsolescence

In this paper, we consider a continuous review inventory system of a slow moving item for which the demand rate drops to a lower level at a known future time instance. The inventory system is controlled according to a one-for-one replenishment policy with a fixed lead time. Adapting to lower demand is achieved by changing the control policy in advance and letting the demand take away the excess stocks. We show that the timing of the control policy change primarily determines the tradeoff between backordering penalties and obsolescence costs. We propose an approximate solution for the optimal time to shift to the new control policy minimizing the expected total cost during the transient period. We find that the advance policy change results in significant cost savings and the approximation yields near optimal expected total costs.     

An order-revenue inventory model with returns and sudden obsolescence

This paper introduces an EOQ-like state-dependent inventory model with returns and sudden obsolescence. Returns arrive according to a MAP process governed by the underlying Markov chain. Additionally, the system is totally obsoleted at stationary renewal times. Hitting level 0 yields an order of size $Q$. We assume order, loss, and shortage costs in addition to revenue. By applying hitting-time transforms and martingales we derive the cost functionals under the discounted criterion. Numerical results, insights, and a comparative study are provided.     

A two-step method for forecasting spare parts demand using information on component repairs

Forecasting spare parts demand is notoriously difficult, as demand is typically intermittent and lumpy. Specialized methods such as that by Croston are available, but these are not based on the repair operations that cause the intermittency and lumpiness of demand. In this paper, we do propose a method that, in addition to the demand for spare parts, considers the type of component repaired. This two-step forecasting method separately updates the average number of parts needed per repair and the number of repairs for each type of component. The method is tested in an empirical, comparative study for a service provider in the aviation industry. Our results show that the two-step method is one of the most accurate methods, and that it performs considerably better than Croston’s method. Moreover, contrary to other methods, the two-step method can use information on planned maintenance and repair operations to reduce forecasts errors by up to 20%. We derive further analytical and simulation results that help explain the empirical findings.     

Inventory models for perishable items with inventory level dependent demand rate

This paper presents inventory models for perishable items with inventory level dependent demand rate. The models with and without backlogging are studied. In the backlogging model, it is assumed that the backlogging rate is dependent on the waiting time and the amount of products already backlogged simultaneously. Two cases that holding inventory is profitable or not are studied, respectively. The smallest shelf space to ensure shortage not occur when holding inventory is not profitable is obtained. In the model without backlogging, it is assumed that the remaining stock at the end of the inventory cycle is disposed of with salvage value. The necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of the optimal solution of these models are investigated. At last, some numerical examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. The model in this paper is generalization of present ones. In particularly, the model is reduced to Padmanabhan and Vrat’s when δ₁ = 0, and Dye and Ouyang’s when δ₂ = 0. If S = s and δ₂ = 0, it is Chang, Goyal and Teng’s model.     

On the bias of Croston’s forecasting method

Croston’s forecasting method (CR) has been shown to be appropriate in dealing with intermittent demand items. The method, however, suffers from a positive bias as discussed by Syntetos and Boylan [Syntetos, A.A., Boylan, J.E., 2005a. The accuracy of intermittent demand estimates. International Journal of Forecasting 21, 303–314] who proposed a modification (SB). Unfortunately, the modification ignores the damping effect on the bias of the probability that a demand occurs. This leads to overcompensation and a negative bias, which can in fact be larger than the positive bias of the original method. Syntetos [Syntetos, A.A., 2001. Forecasting for Intermittent Demand, Unpublished Ph.D thesis, Buckinghamshire Chilterns University College, Brunel University] proposed another modification (SY) that takes the damping effect into account, thereby reducing the bias. However, he eventually disregarded it from the empirical analysis, because of the analytical results that SY never dominates SB as well as CR when both bias and variance are considered. Levén and Segerstedt [Levén, E., Segerstedt, A., 2004. Inventory control with a modified Croston procedure and Erlang distribution. International Journal of Production Economics 90, 361–367] also proposed a modified Croston method (LS) and claimed it to be unbiased. We compare all four methods in a numerical study. Our results strengthen the finding from Boylan and Syntetos [Boylan, J.E., Syntetos A.A., 2007. The accuracy of a modified Croston procedure. International Journal of Production Economics 107, 511–517] that LS suffers from a much more severe bias that the other methods. They also confirm SB as the best method when the Mean Square Error is considered. However, SY has a much smaller average absolute bias of 1% compared to 5% for the SB method. From an inventory control point of view, this is an important advantage of the SY method, since biases distort calculations of the expected lead time demand as well as safety stock calculations. An additional advantage of the SY method is its robust performance over the range of parameter values that we considered. Based on these results, we suggest that the SY method should receive more consideration as an alternative to CR and SB.     

Optimal ordering and transfer policy for an inventory with stock dependent demand

This paper deals with an ordering-transfer inventory model to determine the retailer’s optimal order quantity and the number of transfers per order from the warehouse to the display area. It is assumed that the amount of display space is limited and the demand rate depends on the display stock level. The objective is to maximize the average profit per unit time yielded by the retailer. The proposed models and algorithms are developed to find the optimal strategy by retailer. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the models developed and the sensitivity analysis is also reported.     

Triple seasonal methods for short-term electricity demand forecasting

Online short-term load forecasting is needed for the real-time scheduling of electricity generation. Univariate methods have been developed that model the intraweek and intraday seasonal cycles in intraday load data. Three such methods, shown to be competitive in recent empirical studies, are double seasonal ARMA, an adaptation of Holt–Winters exponential smoothing for double seasonality, and another, recently proposed, exponential smoothing method. In multiple years of load data, in addition to intraday and intraweek cycles, an intrayear seasonal cycle is also apparent. We extend the three double seasonal methods in order to accommodate the intrayear seasonal cycle. Using six years of British and French data, we show that for prediction up to a day-ahead the triple seasonal methods outperform the double seasonal methods, and also a univariate neural network approach. Further improvement in accuracy is produced by using a combination of the forecasts from two of the triple seasonal methods.     

Joint management of capacity and inventory in make-to-stock production systems with multi-class demand

We evaluate the benefits of coordinating capacity and inventory decisions in a make-to-stock production environment. We consider a firm that faces multi-class demand and has additional capacity options that are temporary and randomly available. We formulate the model as a Markov decision process (MDP) and prove that a solution to the optimal joint control problem exists. For several special cases we characterize the structure of the optimal policy. For the general case, however, we show that the optimal policy is state-dependent, and in many instances non-monotone and difficult to implement. Therefore, we consider three pragmatic heuristic policies and assess their performance. We show that the majority of the savings originate from the ability to dynamically adjust capacity, and that a simple heuristic that can adjust production capacity (based on workload fluctuation) but uses a static production/rationing policy can result in significant savings.     

Modeling special-day effects for forecasting intraday electricity demand

We propose and apply a novel approach for modeling special-day effects to predict electricity demand in Korea. Notably, we model special-day effects on an hourly rather than a daily basis. Hourly specified predictor variables are implemented in the regression model with a seasonal autoregressive moving average (SARMA) type error structure in order to efficiently reflect the special-day effects. The interaction terms between the hour-of-day effects and the hourly based special-day effects are also included to capture the unique intraday patterns of special days more accurately. The multiplicative SARMA mechanism is employed in order to identify the double seasonal cycles, namely, the intraday effect and the intraweek effect. The forecast results of the suggested model are evaluated by comparing them with those of various benchmark models for the following year. The empirical results indicate that the suggested model outperforms the benchmark models for both special- and non-special day predictions.     

Technical note on inventory model with trapezoidal type demand

This note is a response to optimal policy for deteriorating items with trapezoidal type demand and partial backlogging by Cheng et al. [4]. In the above mentioned paper, a new inventory model was created, but both their model and their solution procedure contained some questionable results. In this note a detailed examination of their paper will be provided, offering an enhancement to their important inventory model and solution procedure. Numerical examples and detailed analysis of the four scenarios are used to illustrate our findings.     

On a stochastic demand jump inventory model

This paper considers a Quasi-Variational Inequality (QVI) arising from a stochastic demand jump inventory model in a continuous review setting with a fixed ordering cost and where demand is made up of a deterministic part (which is a function of the stock level) punctuated by random jumps. Under some restrictions on the parameters, a solution to the QVI is found which corresponds to an (s,S) policy.     

Inventory control under temporal demand heteroscedasticity

This paper studies an inventory control problem when the variance of demand is time-varying and exhibits temporal heteroscedasticity. We use a first-order autoregressive process to characterize the dynamic changes in the level of demand over time and a GARCH(1, 1) structure to describe the changes in the variance of demand. Under these demand settings, we quantify the effect of a temporal heterogeneous variance on inventory performance for a system controlled via an order-up-to-level policy. We show that the effect of temporal heteroscedasticity on the forecasting accuracy can be additively decomposed from the total forecasting error variance. The decomposition is used to derive the absolute and relative cost deviations when the temporal heteroscedasticity is ignored. The relationship of these cost deviations to demand autocorrelation and replenishment leadtime is investigated. Computational results show that ignoring temporal heteroscedasticity can increase firm’s inventory costs by as much as 30% when demand autocorrelation is highly positive.     

A note on the inventory models for deteriorating items with ramp type demand rate

In this research we study the inventory models for deteriorating items with ramp type demand rate. We first clearly point out some questionable results that appeared in (Mandal, B., Pal, A.K., 1998. Order level inventory system with ramp type demand rate for deteriorating items. Journal of Interdisciplinary Mathematics 1, 49–66 and Wu, K.S., Ouyang, L.Y., 2000. A replenishment policy for deteriorating items with ramp type demand rate (Short Communication). Proceedings of National Science Council ROC (A) 24, 279–286). And then resolve the similar problem by offering a rigorous and efficient method to derive the optimal solution. In addition, we also propose an extended inventory model with ramp type demand rate and its optimal feasible solution to amend the incompleteness in the previous work. Moreover, we also proposed a very good inventory replenishment policy for this kind of inventory model. We believe that our work will provide a solid foundation for the further study of this sort of important inventory models with ramp type demand rate.     

An inventory model for increasing demand under two levels of trade credit linked to order quantity

During the growth stage of a product life cycle especially for high-tech products, the demand function increases with time. In this paper, we extend the constant demand to a linear non-decreasing demand function of time and incorporate a permissible delay in payment under two levels of trade credit into the model. The supplier offers a permissible delay linked to order quantity, and the retailer also provides a downstream trade credit period to its customers. The objective is to find the optimal replenishment cycle that minimizes the retailer’s annual total relevant cost per unit time. The condition for an optimal solution to the generalized model is presented and some fundamental theoretical results are established. Finally, numerical examples to illustrate the proposed model are provided. Sensitivity analysis is performed and some relevant managerial insights are obtained.     

Dynamic inventory rationing strategies for inventory systems with two demand classes,Poisson demand and backordering

We study inventory systems with two demand classes (critical and non-critical), Poisson demand and backordering. We analyze dynamic rationing strategies where the number of items reserved for critical demand depends on the remaining time until the next order arrives. Different from results in the literature, we do not discretize demand but derive a set of formulae that determine the optimal rationing level for any possible value of the remaining time. Moreover, we show that the cost parameters can be captured in a single relevant dimension, which allows us to present the optimal rationing levels in charts and lookup tables that are easy to implement. Numerical examples illustrate that the optimal dynamic rationing strategy outperforms all static strategies with fixed rationing levels.     

An integrated production and inventory model to dampen upstream demand variability in the supply chain

We consider a two-echelon supply chain: a single retailer holds a finished goods inventory to meet an i.i.d. customer demand, and a single manufacturer produces the retailer’s replenishment orders on a make-to-order basis. In this setting the retailer’s order decision has a direct impact on the manufacturer’s production. It is a well known phenomenon that inventory control policies at the retailer level often propagate customer demand variability towards the manufacturer, sometimes even in an amplified form (known as the bullwhip effect). The manufacturer, however, prefers to smooth production, and thus he prefers a smooth order pattern from the retailer. At first sight a decrease in order variability comes at the cost of an increased variance of the retailer’s inventory levels, inflating the retailer’s safety stock requirements. However, integrating the impact of the retailer’s order decision on the manufacturer’s production leads to new insights. A smooth order pattern generates shorter and less variable (production/replenishment) lead times, introducing a compensating effect on the retailer’s safety stock. We show that by including the impact of the order decision on lead times, the order pattern can be smoothed to a considerable extent without increasing stock levels. This leads to a situation where both parties are better off.     

Demand seasonality in retail inventory management

We investigate the value of accounting for demand seasonality in inventory control. Our problem is motivated by discussions with retailers who admitted to not taking perceived seasonality patterns into account in their replenishment systems. We consider a single-location, single-item periodic review lost sales inventory problem with seasonal demand in a retail environment. Customer demand has seasonality with a known season length, the lead time is shorter than the review period and orders are placed as multiples of a fixed batch size. The cost structure comprises of a fixed cost per order, a cost per batch, and a unit variable cost to model retail handling costs. We consider four different settings which differ in the degree of demand seasonality that is incorporated in the model: with or without within-review period variations and with or without across-review periods variations. In each case, we calculate the policy which minimizes the long-run average cost and compute the optimality gaps of the policies which ignore part or all demand seasonality. We find that not accounting for demand seasonality can lead to substantial optimality gaps, yet incorporating only some form of demand seasonality does not always lead to cost savings. We apply the problem to a real life setting, using Point-of-Sales data from a European retailer. We show that a simple distinction between weekday and weekend sales can lead to major cost reductions without greatly increasing the complexity of the retailer’s automatic store ordering system. Our analysis provides valuable insights on the tradeoff between the complexity of the automatic store ordering system and the benefits of incorporating demand seasonality.     

Optimal lateral transshipment policies for a two location inventory problem with multiple demand classes

We consider an inventory model for spare parts with two stockpoints, providing repairable parts for a critical component of advanced technical systems. As downtime costs for these systems are expensive, ready–for–use spare parts are kept in stock to be able to quickly respond to a breakdown of a system. We allow for lateral transshipments of parts between the stockpoints upon a demand arrival. Each stockpoint faces demands from multiple demand classes. We are interested in the optimal lateral transshipment policy. There are three ways in which a demand can by satisfied: from own stock, via a lateral transshipment, or via an emergency procedure. Using stochastic dynamic programming, we characterize and prove the structure of the optimal policy, that is, the policy for satisfying the demands which minimizes the average operating costs of the system. This optimal policy is a threshold type policy, with state-dependent thresholds at each stockpoint for every demand class. We show a partial ordering in these thresholds in the demand classes. In addition, we derive conditions under which the so-called hold back and complete pooling policies are optimal, two policies that are often assumed in the literature. Furthermore, we study several model extensions which fit in the same modeling framework.