Numerical study of a diffusive epidemic model of influenza with variable transmission coefficient

A diffusive epidemic model for H1N1 influenza is formulated with a view to gain basic understanding of the virus behavior. All newborns are assumed to be susceptible. Mortality rate for infective individuals in the population is assumed to be greater than natural mortality rate. Latent, infectious and immune periods are assumed to be constants throughout this study. The numerical solutions of this model are carried out under three different initial populations distribution. In order to investigate the effect of the disease transmission coefficient on the spread of disease, β is taken to be constant as well as a function of seasonally varying time t and a function of spatial variable x  . The threshold quantity (_R0)$({\mathfrak{R}}_0)$ that governs the disease dynamics is derived. Numerical simulation shows that the system supports the existence of sustained and damped oscillations depending on initial populations distribution, the disease transmission rate and diffusion.     

Development and analysis of a malaria transmission mathematical model with seasonal mosquito life-history traits

In this paper, we develop and analyze a malaria model with seasonality of mosquito life-history traits: periodic-mosquitoes per capita birth rate, -mosquitoes death rate, -probability of mosquito to human disease transmission, -probability of human to mosquito disease transmission, and -mosquitoes biting rate. All these parameters are assumed to be time dependent leading to a nonautonomous differential equation system. We provide a global analysis of the model depending on two threshold parameters and (with ). When , then the disease-free stationary state is locally asymptotically stable. In the presence of the human disease-induced mortality, the global stability of the disease-free stationary state is guarantied when . On the contrary, if , the disease persists in the host population in the long term and the model admits at least one positive periodic solution. Moreover, by a numerical simulation, we show that a sub-critical (backward) bifurcation is possible at . Finally, the simulation results are in accordance with the seasonal variation of the reported cases of a malaria-epidemic region in Mpumalanga province in South Africa.     

一类随机细粒棘球蚴病传播动力学模型的研究

研究了一类具有随机环境波动和时滞的细粒棘球蚴病传播动力学模型,证明了在感染再生数R_01和噪声强度阈值R_0~N1时,感染平衡点E~*是依概率稳定的.探讨了环境噪声和时滞对控制细粒棘球蚴病传播的影响.     

Techniques for approximating a spatially varying Euler-Bernoulli model with a constant coefficient model

Developing accurate models to describe the behaviour of a physical system often results in differential equations with spatially varying coefficients. A notable example of this that appears in many applications is the Euler-Bernoulli beam equation for transverse vibrations. This equation with spatially varying coefficients, such as when the bending stiffness or mass per unit length varies along the length of the beam, is of interest in the current research. Methods for approximating the Euler-Bernoulli equation with periodically varying coefficients have been proposed yet there is still a need for methods that approximate the more general, non-periodically varying, cases. The goal of this research is to obtain a constant coefficient Euler-Bernoulli equation that accurately approximates the original spatially varying equation using an inverse problem approach. Obtaining such an approximation has advantages in control applications where a constant coefficient model is strongly preferred for computational efficiency. The motivation for this research stems from previous work by the authors on modelling cable-harnessed structures. The spatially varying equation is solved using the Lindstedt-Poincaré perturbation method and these results are used to determine the approximate model. Multiple inverse problem methods for determining the coefficients in the approximate model are considered including metric minimization, the modal participation factor (MPF), and the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD). Continuous version of POD and MPF methods are obtained. Several wrapping patterns and boundary conditions are considered for comparison and the results are in good agreement with analytical and finite element analysis (FEA) results.     

Dynamics of an age‐structured host‐vector model for malaria transmission

In this paper, we propose a host‐vector model for malaria transmission by incorporating infection age in the infected host population and nonlinear incidence for transmission from infectious vectors to susceptible hosts. One novelty of the model is that the recovered hosts only have temporary immunity and another is that successfully recovered infected hosts may become susceptible immediately. Firstly, the existence and local stability of equilibria is studied. Secondly, rigorous mathematical analyses on technical materials and necessary arguments, including asymptotic smoothness and uniform persistence of the system, are given. Thirdly, by applying the fluctuation lemma and the approach of Lyapunov functionals, the threshold dynamics of the model for a special case were established. Roughly speaking, the disease‐free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than one and otherwise the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when no reinfection occurs. It is shown that the infection age and nonlinear incidence not only impact on the basic reproduction number but also could affect the values of the endemic steady state. Numerical simulations were performed to support the theoretical results.     

Regional control for a spatially structured malaria model

A two‐component reaction‐diffusion system to describe the spread of malaria is considered. The model describes the dynamics of the infected mosquitoes and of the infected humans. The spread of the disease is controlled by three actions (controls) implemented in a subdomain of the habitat: killing mosquitoes, treating the infected humans, and reducing the contact rate mosquitoes‐humans. To start with, the problem of the eradicability of the disease is considered, while the cost of the controls is ignored. We prove that it is possible to decrease exponentially both the human and the vector infective population everywhere in the relevant habitat by acting only in a suitable subdomain. Later, the regional control problem of reducing the total cost of the damages produced by the disease, of the controls, and of the intervention in a certain subdomain is treated for the finite time horizon case. An iterative algorithm to decrease the total cost is proposed; apart from the three controls considered above, the logistic structure of the habitat is taken into account. The level set method is used as a key ingredient for describing the subregion of intervention. Some numerical simulations are given to illustrate the applicability of the theoretical results.     

A host-vector model for malaria with infective immigrants

This paper considers a host-vector mathematical model for the spread of malaria that incorporates recruitment of human population through a constant immigration, with a fraction of infective immigrants. The model analysis is carried out to find the steady states and their stability. It is found that in the presence of infective immigrant humans, there is no disease-free equilibrium point. However, the model exhibits a unique endemic equilibrium state if the fraction of the infective immigrants ? is positive. When the fraction of infective immigrants approaches a small value, there is sharp threshold for which the disease can be reduced in the community. The unique endemic equilibrium for which there is a fraction of infective immigrants is globally asymptotically stable.     

Threshold dynamics for a cholera epidemic model with periodic transmission rate

A cholera epidemic model with periodic transmission rate is presented. The basic reproduction number is defined. It is shown that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the cholera eventually disappears if the basic reproduction number is less than one. And if the basic reproduction number is greater than one, there exists a positive periodic solution which is globally asymptotically stable. Numerical simulations are provided to illustrate analytical results.     

A model for hyperparasitism in malaria with environmental fluctuations

The present paper deals with the problem of enhancement of host fitness in malaria, due to the effect of hyperparasitism. The experimental evidence for such situations is reviewed. A mathematical model for host-parasite-parasitoid (tritrophic) is considered to analyze the experimental observations. The effect of environmental fluctuation in the tritrophic system is also observed and optimum values of the inaccessible parameters involved in the system are estimated for purposes of biological control.     

Empirical likelihood for a varying coefficient partially linear model with diverging number of parameters

The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, for the estimation or inference about the parameters of interest in semiparametric models, the commonly used plug-in estimation for infinite-dimensional nuisance parameter creates non-negligible bias, and the least favorable curve or under-smoothing is popularly employed for bias reduction in the literature. To avoid such strong structure assumptions on the models and inconvenience of estimation implementation, for the diverging number of parameters in a varying coefficient partially linear model, we adopt a bias-corrected empirical likelihood (BCEL) in this paper. This method results in the distribution of the empirical likelihood ratio to be asymptotically tractable. It can then be directly applied to construct confidence region for the parameters of interest. Second, different from all existing methods that impose strong conditions to ensure consistency of estimation when diverging the number of the parameters goes to infinity as the sample size goes to infinity, we provide techniques to show that, other than the usual regularity conditions, the consistency holds under moment conditions alone on the covariates and error with a diverging rate being even faster than those in the literature. A simulation study is carried out to assess the performance of the proposed method and to compare it with the profile least squares method. A real dataset is analyzed for illustration.     

A linear varying coefficient ARCH-M model with a latent variable

Motivated by the psychological factor of time-varying risk-return relationship, this article studies a linear varying coefficient ARCH-M model with a latent variable. Due to the unobservable property of the latent variable, a corrected likelihood method is employed for parametric estimation. Estimators are proved to be consistent and asymptotically normal under certain regularity conditions. A simple test statistic is also proposed for testing latent variable effect. Simulation results confirm that the proposed estimators and test perform well. The model is further applied to examine whether the risk-return relationship depends on investor’s sentiment in American Market and some explainable results are obtained.     

Lyapunov functions for a dengue disease transmission model

In this paper, we study a model for the dynamics of dengue fever when only one type of virus is present. For this model, Lyapunov functions are used to show that when the basic reproduction ratio is less than or equal to one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and when it is greater than one there is an endemic equilibrium which is also globally asymptotically stable.     

Global analysis of a dynamical model for transmission of tuberculosis with a general contact rate

This paper deals with the global analysis of a dynamical model for the spread of tuberculosis with a general contact rate. The model exhibits the traditional threshold behavior. We prove that when the basic reproduction ratio is less than unity, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and when the basic reproduction ratio is great than unity, a unique endemic equilibrium exists and is globally asymptotically stable under certain conditions. The stability of equilibria is derived through the use of Lyapunov stability theory and LaSalle’s invariant set theorem. Numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the theoretical results.     

Dynamics of an intra-host model of malaria with a constant drug efficiency

In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of an intra-host model of malaria with logistic red blood growth, treatment and immune response. We provide a theoretical study of the model. We derive the basic reproduction number $\mathcal R_f$ which determines the extinction and the persistence of malaria within the body of a host. We compute equilibria and study their stability. More precisely, we show that there exists a threshold parameter $\zeta$ such that if $\mathcal R_f\leq\zeta\leq1$, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. However, if $\mathcal R_f>1$, there exist two malaria infection equilibria which are locally asymptotically stable: one malaria infection equilibrium without immune response and one malaria infection equilibrium with immune response. The sensitivity analysis of the model has been performed in order to determine the impact of related parameters on outbreak severity. The theory is supported by numerical simulations. We also derive a spatio-temporal model, using Diffusion-Reaction equations to model parasites dispersal. Finally, we provide numerical simulations for parasites spreading, and test different treatment scenarios.     

一类具有标准发生率和双垂直传播的媒介传染病模型分析

建立了一类具有标准发生率和双垂直传播的媒介传染病模型,通过构造Lyapunov函数,利用LaSalle不变集原理等理论,证明了无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的存在性和稳定性,并对其进行数值模拟.得出通过采取降低人群与媒介之间接触率或者提高医疗水平等措施,能够控制疾病的蔓延.     

Analysis of an epidemic model with peer-pressure and information-dependent transmission with high-order distributed delay

Ricerche di Matematica - In this paper, we propose and analyze a behavioral model for the spread of high-risk alcohol consumption. The model is given by ordinary differential equations and includes...