On the numerical evaluation of the distribution of aggregate claims and its stop-loss premiums

The paper develops a method for the numerical evaluation of the distribution of aggregate claims and its stop-loss premiums.     

On a family of aggregate claims distributions

This paper gives a family of aggregate claims distributions using an integral equation representation. The Kernel of the integral equation is chosen so that the compound distributions such as Poisson and binomial are members of the same family. Furthermore, the aggregate claims distribution can be determined by the mean and variance of the number of claims.     

The asymptotic estimate for the sum of two correlated classes of discounted aggregate claims with heavy tails

Consider a risk model with two correlated classes of insurance business and a constant force of interest. We assume that the correlation comes from a common shock and that the claim-size distribution is heavy-tailed. Under this setting, we investigate the tail behavior of the sum of the two correlated classes of discounted aggregate claims. We obtain the uniform asymptotic formulas for some subclass of subexponential distributions.     

Approximation of aggregate claims distributions by compound poisson distributions

New error bounds are derived for the approximation of aggregate claims distributions by compound Poisson distributions. These approximations can be recommended in most cases in which the normal approximation fails.     

On a compound Poisson risk model with delayed claims and random incomes

The main focus of this paper is to analyze the Gerber-Shiu penalty function of a compound Poisson risk model with delayed claims and random incomes. It is assumed that every main claim will produce a by-claim which can be delayed with a certain probability. We derive the integral equation satisfied by the Gerber-Shiu penalty function. Given that the premium size is exponentially distributed, the explicit expression for the Laplace transform of the Gerber-Shiu penalty function is derived. Finally, when the premium sizes have rational Laplace transforms, we also obtain the Laplace transform of the Gerber-Shiu penalty function.     

On the expected discounted penalty function for the compound Poisson risk model with delayed claims

In this paper, we consider an extension to the compound Poisson risk model for which the occurrence of the claim may be delayed. Two kinds of dependent claims, main claims and by-claims, are defined, where every by-claim is induced by the main claim and may be delayed with a certain probability. Both the expected discounted penalty functions with zero initial surplus and the Laplace transforms of the expected discounted penalty functions are obtained from an integro-differential equations system. We prove that the expected discounted penalty function satisfies a defective renewal equation. An exact representation for the solution of this equation is derived through an associated compound geometric distribution, and an analytic expression for this quantity is given for when the claim amounts from both classes are exponentially distributed. Moreover, the closed form expressions for the ruin probability and the distribution function of the surplus before ruin are obtained. We prove that the ruin probability for this risk model decreases as the probability of the delay of by-claims increases. Finally, numerical results are also provided to illustrate the applicability of our main result and the impact of the delay of by-claims on the expected discounted penalty functions.     

Analysis of the Gerber-Shiu function and dividend barrier problems for a risk process with two classes of claims

In this paper we consider a risk model with two independent classes of insurance risks. We assume that the two independent claim counting processes are, respectively, the Poisson and the generalized Erlang(2) process. We prove that the Gerber-Shiu function satisfies some defective renewal equations. Exact representations for the solutions of these equations are derived through an associated compound geometric distribution and an analytic expression for this quantity is given when the claim severities have rationally distributed Laplace transforms. Further, the same risk model is considered in the presence of a constant dividend barrier. A system of integro-differential equations with certain boundary conditions for the Gerber-Shiu function is derived and solved. Using systems of integro-differential equations for the moment-generating function as well as for the arbitrary moments of the discounted sum of the dividend payments until ruin, a matrix version of the dividends-penalty is derived. An extension to a risk model when the two independent claim counting processes are Poisson and generalized Erlang(ν), respectively, is considered, generalizing the aforementioned results.     

Risk aggregation in multivariate dependent Pareto distributions

In this paper we obtain closed expressions for the probability distribution function of aggregated risks with multivariate dependent Pareto distributions. We work with the dependent multivariate Pareto type II proposed by Arnold (1983, 2015), which is widely used in insurance and risk analysis. We begin with an individual risk model, where the probability density function corresponds to a second kind beta distribution, obtaining the VaR, TVaR and several other tail risk measures. Then, we consider a collective risk model based on dependence, where several general properties are studied. We study in detail some relevant collective models with Poisson, negative binomial and logarithmic distributions as primary distributions. In the collective Pareto–Poisson model, the probability density function is a function of the Kummer confluent hypergeometric function, and the density of the Pareto–negative binomial is a function of the Gauss hypergeometric function. Using data based on one-year vehicle insurance policies taken out in 2004–2005 (Jong and Heller, 2008) we conclude that our collective dependent models outperform other collective models considered in the actuarial literature in terms of AIC and CAIC statistics.     

Asymptotics of discounted aggregate claims for renewal risk model with risky investment

Under the assumption that the claim size is subexponentially distributed and the insurance surplus is totally invested in risky asset, a simple asymptotic relation of tail probability of discounted aggregate claims for renewal risk model within finite horizon is obtained. The result extends the corresponding conclusions of related references.     

Joint and supremum distributions in the compound binomial model with Markovian environment

In this paper, we study the compound binomial model in Markovian environment, which is proposed by Cossette, et al. (2003). We obtain the recursive formula of the joint distributions of T, X(T − 1) and |X(T)| (i.e., the time of ruin, the surplus before ruin and the deficit at ruin) by the method of mass function of up-crossing zero points, as given by Liu and Zhao (2007). By using the same method, the recursive formula of supremum distribution is obtained. An example is included to illustrate the results of the model.     

On the analysis of time dependent claims in a class of birth process claim count models

An integral representation is derived for the sum of all claims over a finite interval when the claim value depends upon its incurral time. These time dependent claims, which generalize the usual compound model for aggregate claims, have insurance applications involving models for inflation and payment delays. The number of claims process is assumed to be a (possibly delayed) nonhomogeneous birth process, which includes the Poisson process, contagion models, and the mixed Poisson process, as special cases. Known simplified compound representations in these special cases are easily generalized to the conditional case, given the number of claims at the beginning of the interval. Applications to the case involving “two stages” are also considered.     

Stochastic comparison of aggregate claim amounts between two heterogeneous portfolios and its applications

The aggregate claim amount in a particular time period is a quantity of fundamental importance for proper management of an insurance company and also for pricing of insurance coverages. In this paper, we show that the proportional hazard rates (PHR) model, which includes some well-known distributions such as exponential, Weibull and Pareto distributions, can be used as the aggregate claim amount distribution. We also present some conditions for the use of exponentiated Weibull distribution as the claim amount distribution. The results established here complete and extend the well-known result of Khaledi and Ahmadi (2008).     

A matrix operator approach to a risk model with two classes of claims

In this paper, we study a risk model with two independent classes of risks, in which both claim number processes are renewal processes with phasetype inter-arrival times. Using a generalized matrix Dickson-Hipp operator, a matrix Volterra integral equation for the Gerber-Shiu function is derived. And the analytical solution to the Gerber-Shiu function is also provided.     

Some Finite Time Ruin Problems in Markov-Modulated Risk Model

This paper studies the distribution of finite-time ruin quantities. It gives the probability mass function of finite time number of claims, and find the distribution function of aggregate claims by using discretise method and compared with exact distribution function, which shows that the approximation works very well. In addition, by applying decomposition for density function, it gives the explicit expression for joint density of ruin time and deficit at ruin.     

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??This paper studies the distribution of finite-time ruin quantities. It gives the probability mass function of finite time number of claims, and find the distribution function of aggregate claims by using discretise method and compared with exact distribution function, which shows that the approximation works very well. In addition, by applying decomposition for density function, it gives the explicit expression for joint density of ruin time and deficit at ruin.     

Joint modelling of the total amount and the number of claims by conditionals

In the risk theory context, let us consider the classical collective model. The aim of this paper is to obtain a flexible bivariate joint distribution for modelling the couple (S,N), where N is a count variable and S=X₁+?+X_N is the total claim amount. A generalization of the classical hierarchical model, where now we assume that the conditional distributions of S|N and N|S belong to some prescribed parametric families, is presented. A basic theorem of compatibility in conditional distributions of the type S given N and N given S is stated. Using a known theorem for exponential families and results from functional equations new models are obtained. We describe in detail the extension of two classical collective models, which now we call Poisson-Gamma and the Poisson-Binomial conditionals models. Other conditionals models are proposed, including the Poisson-Lognormal conditionals distribution, the Geometric-Gamma conditionals model and a model with inverse Gaussian conditionals. Further developments of collective risk modelling are given.     

Weight distributions and weight hierarchies of two classes of binary linear codes

Linear codes with a few weights can be applied to communication, consumer electronics and data storage system. In addition, the weight hierarchy of a linear code has many applications such as on the type II wire-tap channel, dealing with t-resilient functions and trellis or branch complexity of linear codes and so on. In this paper, we present a formula for computing the weight hierarchies of linear codes constructed by the generalized method of defining sets. Then, we construct two classes of binary linear codes with a few weights and determine their weight distributions and weight hierarchies completely. Some codes of them can be used in secret sharing schemes.     

The topology of the spaces of regular and absolutely regular Hankel‐transformable distributions

New topologies on the spaces of regular and absolutely regular Hankel‐transformable distributions are proposed and compared. (© 2005 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)