A numerical stochastic model of the high-resolution time series of the wind chill index is considered. The model is constructed under the assumption that time series of the wind chill index are non-stationary non-Gaussian random processes with time-dependent one-dimensional distributions. This assumption makes possible to take into account both daily and seasonal variations of real meteorological processes. Data of the long-term real observations at weather stations were used for estimating the model parameters and for the verification of the model. Based on the simulated trajectories, some statistical properties of rare and adverse weather events, like long periods of time with a low wind chill index, are studied. The model is also used to study the dependence of the statistical properties of the wind chill index time series on a climate change.
相似文献In this paper, we propose a stochastic model of the conditional time series of the wind chill index. The model is based on the inverse distribution function method and on the normalization method for simulation of the non-Gaussian non-stationary random processes as well as on the method of conditional distributions for simulation of the conditional Gaussian processes. In the framework of the approach considered, two types of conditions (point conditions and interval conditions) are imposed on the time series. The model in question was verified using the real data collected at the weather stations located in West Siberia (Russia). It is shown that the simulated trajectories are close in their statistical properties to the real time series. The model proposed was used for stochastic forecasting of the wind chill index and the results of the numerical experiments have shown that the accuracy of the short-term forecasts is high enough.
相似文献Multiple linear regression model based on normally distributed and uncorrelated errors is a popular statistical tool with application in various fields. But these assumptions of normality and no serial correlation are hardly met in real life. Hence, this study considers the linear regression time series model for series with outliers and autocorrelated errors. These autocorrelated errors are represented by a covariance-stationary autoregressive process where the independent innovations are driven by shape mixture of skew-t normal distribution. The shape mixture of skew-t normal distribution is a flexible extension of the skew-t normal with an additional shape parameter that controls skewness and kurtosis. With this error model, stochastic modeling of multiple outliers is possible with an adaptive robust maximum likelihood estimation of all the parameters. An Expectation Conditional Maximization Either algorithm is developed to carryout the maximum likelihood estimation. We derive asymptotic standard errors of the estimators through an information-based approximation. The performance of the estimation procedure developed is evaluated through Monte Carlo simulations and real life data analysis.
相似文献We introduce a novel class of features for multidimensional time series that are invariant with respect to transformations of the ambient space. The general linear group, the group of rotations and the group of permutations of the axes are considered. The starting point for their construction is Chen’s iterated-integral signature.
相似文献In this paper, we consider the problem of computing different types of finite time survival probabilities for a Markov-Modulated risk model and a Markov-Modulated risk model with reinsurance, both with varying premium rates. We use the multinomial approximation scheme to derive an efficient recursive algorithm to compute finite time survival probabilities and finite time draw-down survival probabilities. Numerical results show that by comparing with MCMC approximation, discretize approximation and diffusion approximation methods, the proposed scheme performs accurate results in all the considered cases and with better computation efficiency.
相似文献In this paper, we apply local discontinuous Galerkin methods to the pattern formation dynamical model in polymerizing action flocks. Optimal error estimates for the density and filament polarization in different norms are established. We use a semi-implicit spectral deferred correction time method for time discretization, which allows a relative large time step and avoids computation of a Jacobian matrix. Numerical experiments are presented to verify the theoretical analysis and to show the capability for simulations of action wave formation.
相似文献Neural networks have recently been established as state-of-the-art in forecasting financial time series. However, many studies show how one architecture, the Long-Short Term Memory, is the most widespread in financial sectors due to its high performance over time series. Considering some stocks traded in financial markets and a crypto ticker, this paper tries to study the effectiveness of the Boltzmann entropy as a financial indicator to improve forecasting, comparing it with financial analysts’ most commonly used indicators. The results show how Boltzmann’s entropy, born from an Agent-Based Model, is an efficient indicator that can also be applied to stocks and cryptocurrencies alone and in combination with some classic indicators. This critical fact allows obtaining good results in prediction ability using Network architecture that is not excessively complex.
相似文献The Conway–Maxwell–Poisson distribution is a two-parameter generalization of the Poisson distribution that can be used to model data that are under- or over-dispersed relative to the Poisson distribution. The normalizing constant \(Z(\lambda ,\nu )\) is given by an infinite series that in general has no closed form, although several papers have derived approximations for this sum. In this work, we start by using probabilistic argument to obtain the leading term in the asymptotic expansion of \(Z(\lambda ,\nu )\) in the limit \(\lambda \rightarrow \infty \) that holds for all \(\nu >0\). We then use an integral representation to obtain the entire asymptotic series and give explicit formulas for the first eight coefficients. We apply this asymptotic series to obtain approximations for the mean, variance, cumulants, skewness, excess kurtosis and raw moments of CMP random variables. Numerical results confirm that these correction terms yield more accurate estimates than those obtained using just the leading-order term.
相似文献In this paper, we provide a novel approach to capture causal interaction in a dynamical system from time series data. In Sinha and Vaidya (in: IEEE conference on decision and control, pp 7329–7334, 2016), we have shown that the existing measures of information transfer, namely directed information, Granger causality and transfer entropy, fail to capture the causal interaction in a dynamical system and proposed a new definition of information transfer that captures direct causal interactions. The novelty of the information transfer definition used in this paper is the fact that it can differentiate between direct and indirect influences Sinha and Vaidya (2016). The main contribution of this paper is to show that the proposed definition of information transfers in Sinha and Vaidya (2016) and Sinha and Vaidya (in: Indian control conference, pp 303–308, 2017) can be computed from time series data, and thus, the direct influences in a dynamical system can be identified from time series data. We use transfer operator theoretic framework, involving Perron–Frobenius and Koopman operators for the data-driven approximation of the system dynamics and computation of information transfer. Several examples, involving linear and nonlinear system dynamics, are presented to verify the efficiency of the developed algorithm.
相似文献Measuring dependence is a very important tool to analyze pairs of functional data. The coefficients currently available to quantify association between two sets of curves show a non robust behavior under the presence of outliers. We propose a new robust numerical measure of association for bivariate functional data. We extend in this paper Kendall coefficient for finite dimensional observations to the functional setting. We also study its statistical properties. An extensive simulation study shows the good behavior of this new measure for different types of functional data. Moreover, we apply it to establish association for real data, including microarrays time series in genetics.
相似文献In this note, a variety of new formulas for basic hypergeometric series will be derived by an application of a single Bailey-type transform to some q-series formulas which appeared recently in the literature.
相似文献We consider the classical Cramér-Lundberg risk model with claim sizes that are mixtures of phase-type and subexponential variables. Exploiting a specific geometric compound representation, we propose control variate techniques to efficiently simulate the ruin probability in this situation. The resulting estimators perform well for both small and large initial capital. We quantify the variance reduction as well as the efficiency gain of our method over another fast standard technique based on the classical Pollaczek-Khinchine formula. We provide a numerical example to illustrate the performance, and show that for more time-consuming conditional Monte Carlo techniques, the new series representation also does not compare unfavorably to the one based on the Pollaczek-Khinchine formula.
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