A fuzzy outranking relation in multicriteria decision making

It frequently happens that a decision maker must establish a ranking within a finite set of alternatives with respect to multiple criteria. The subjective evaluation of each alternative according to each criterion is expressed in the form of a distributive evaluation. To capture the preferences of one alternative over another, a concept of fuzzy outranking relation can be used. This fuzzy outranking relation is characterized by a degree of credibility which is computed from two indices: a confidence index and a doubt index. Each of these indices is calculated from the distributive evaluations over the various criteria. In this paper, such a fuzzy outranking relation (fuzzy binary relation) is constructed and an application is presented.     

How to select and how to rank projects: The Promethee method

In this paper, we present the Promethee methods, a new class of outranking methods in multicriteria analysis. Their main features are simplicity, clearness and stability. The notion of generalized criterion is used to construct a valued outranking relation. All the parameters to be defined have an economic signification, so that the decision maker can easily fix them. Two ways of treatment are proposed: It is possible to obtain either a partial preorder (Promethee I) or a complete one (Promethee II), both on a finite set of feasible actions. A comparison is made with the Electre III method. The stability of the results given by the two methods is analysed. Numerical applications are given in order to illustrate the properties of the new methods and some further problems are discussed.     

Building a binary outranking relation in uncertain, imprecise and multi-experts contexts: The application of evidence theory

We consider multicriteria decision problems where the actions are evaluated on a set of ordinal criteria. The evaluation of each alternative with respect to each criterion may be uncertain and/or imprecise and is provided by one or several experts. We model this evaluation as a basic belief assignment (BBA). In order to compare the different pairs of alternatives according to each criterion, the concept of first belief dominance is proposed. Additionally, criteria weights are also expressed by means of a BBA. A model inspired by ELECTRE I is developed and illustrated by a pedagogical example.     

Aspiration level approach in stochastic MCDM problems

The paper considers a discrete stochastic multiple criteria decision making problem. This problem is defined by a finite set of actions A, a set of attributes X and a set of evaluations of actions with respect to attributes E. In stochastic case the evaluation of each action with respect to each attribute takes form of a probability distribution. Thus, the comparison of two actions leads to the comparison of two vectors of probability distributions. In the paper a new procedure for solving this problem is proposed. It is based on three concepts: stochastic dominance, interactive approach, and preference threshold. The idea of the procedure comes from the interactive multiple objective goal programming approach. The set of actions is progressively reduced as the decision maker specifies additional requirements. At the beginning the decision maker is asked to define preference threshold for each attribute. Next, at each iteration the decision maker is confronted with the set of considered actions. If the decision maker is able to make a final choice then the procedure ends, otherwise he/she is asked to specify aspiration level. A didactical example is presented to illustrate the proposed technique.     

Preference relations on actions and criteria in multicriteria decision making

Let A be a finite set of feasible actions which are judged following several criteria. An outranking relation is defined on A by considering preference of the decision maker as a weak order on each criterion and the relation among criteria as a semi-order on the given set of criteria.Several ways of constructing outranking relations have been proposed. One of the most popular, introduced by B. Roy, for instance ELECTRE(s), is based on the use of weights related to criteria. In our approach, the knowledge of weights is replaced by the existence of a semi-order.A case study is developed. It deals with a computer selection problem.     

A choice model with imprecise ordinal evaluations

We consider multicriteria choice problems where the actions are evaluated on ordinal criteria and where they can be assessed imprecisely. In order to select the subset of best actions, the pairwise comparisons between the actions on each criterion are modeled by basic belief assignments (BBAs). Dempsterʼs rule of combination is used for the aggregation of the BBAs of each pair of alternatives in order to express a global comparison between them on all the criteria. A model inspired by ELECTRE I is also proposed and illustrated by a pedagogical example.     

A ranking model in uncertain, imprecise and multi-experts contexts: The application of evidence theory

We consider ranking problems where the actions are evaluated on a set of ordinal criteria. The evaluation of each alternative with respect to each criterion may be imperfect and is provided by one or several experts. We model each imperfect evaluation as a basic belief assignment (BBA). In order to rank the BBAs characterizing the performances of the actions according to each criterion, a new concept called RBBD and based on the comparison of these BBAs to ideal or nadir BBAs is proposed. This is performed using belief distances that measure the dissimilarity of each BBA to the ideal or nadir BBAs. A model inspired by Xu et al.’s method is also proposed and illustrated by a pedagogical example.     

Multicriteria Analysis Represented by Artificial Intelligence Techniques

This paper presents a possible representation of multicriteria analysis by means of artificial intelligence techniques. The decision process activities characterized by the existence of formal and technical knowledge were identified and attention was focused on the area of multicriteria outranking methods. The knowledge characteristics suggested the use of artificial intelligence techniques, based on a conceptualization in which the domain of discourse is the set of the multicriteria methodology concepts used in the analysed area of activities, and the relational set is the union of the admissible relations among the concepts and the relations elicited from experience. The suitable AI techniques were tested by implementing a knowledge-based interface between the outranking methods and a user who was not very familiar with this approach.     

Multivariate Gaussian criteria in SMAA

We consider stochastic multicriteria decision-making problems with multiple decision makers. In such problems, the uncertainty or inaccuracy of the criteria measurements and the partial or missing preference information can be represented through probability distributions. In many real-life problems the uncertainties of criteria measurements may be dependent. However, it is often difficult to quantify these dependencies. Also, most of the existing methods are unable to handle such dependency information.In this paper, we develop a method for handling dependent uncertainties in stochastic multicriteria group decision-making problems. We measure the criteria, their uncertainties and dependencies using a stochastic simulation model. The model is based on decision variables and stochastic parameters with given distributions. Based on the simulation results, we determine for the criteria measurements a joint probability distribution that quantifies the uncertainties and their dependencies. We then use the SMAA-2 stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis method for comparing the alternatives based on the criteria distributions. We demonstrate the use of the method in the context of a strategic decision support model for a retailer operating in the liberated European electricity market.     

Learning multicriteria classification models from examples: Decision rules in continuous space

The classification problem statement of multicriteria decision analysis is to model the classification of the alternatives/actions according to the decision maker's preferences. These models are based on outranking relations, utility functions or (linear) discriminant functions. Model parameters can be given explicitly or learnt from a preclassified set of alternatives/actions.In this paper we propose a novel approach, the Continuous Decision (CD) method, to learn parameters of a discriminant function, and we also introduce its extension, the Continuous Decision Tree (CDT) method, which describes the classification more accurately.The proposed methods are results of integration of Machine Learning methods in Decision Analysis. From a Machine Learning point of view, the CDT method can be considered as an extension of the C4.5 decision tree building algorithm that handles only numeric criteria but applies more complex tests in the inner nodes of the tree. For the sake of easier interpretation, the decision trees are transformed to rules.     

Choosing realistic values of indifference,preference and veto thresholds for use with environmental criteria within ELECTRE

The ELECTRE III outranking model is particularly suited to aiding the choice between project alternatives on the basis of mainly environmental criteria. The model requires values of three criterion thresholds, the indifference threshold (q), the preference threshold (p) and the veto threshold (v). These allow the uncertainties inherent in the criteria valuations to be incorporated into the decision process. There is, at present, a high degree of subjectivity involved in determining these thresholds, which are expressed in terms of the error/uncertainty associated with the valuations of each of the criteria under scrutiny. If, however, the ELECTRE III outranking model is to be used within a formal environmental appraisal system, the thresholds which govern the outranking relationship of one project option over another must take account of the effect on human beings of the difference between any two criterion scores. The authors suggest a new method for applying the standard ELECTRE III model to decision-aid problems within the formal mechanism of environmental impact assessment. This involves a new, more comprehensive approach for specifying realistic limits for p, q and v, within the context of an environmental appraisal, where both criterion error/uncertainty and human sensitivity to differing levels of the criterion are taken into account. Threshold valuations for noise impacts from a highway project are used to illustrate the proposed method.     

MPOC: an agglomerative algorithm for multicriteria partially ordered clustering

In the field of multicriteria decision aid, considerable attention has been paid to supervised classification problems where the purpose is to assign alternatives into predefined ordered classes. In these approaches, often referred to as sorting methods, it is usually assumed that classes are either known a priori or can be identified by the decision maker. On the other hand, when the objective is to identify groups (clusters) of alternatives sharing similar characteristics, the problem is known as a clustering problem, also called an unsupervised learning problem. This paper proposes an agglomerative clustering method based on a crisp outranking relation. The method regroups alternatives into partially ordered classes, based on a quality of partition measure which reflects the percentage of pairs of alternatives that are compatible with a decision-maker’s multicriteria preference model.     

A multicriteria accreditation system for information technology skills and qualifications

Employees must acquire new competences and qualifications throughout their lives, in order to be able to deal with the multiple changes in the labour market. The specific knowledge and competences, acquired either formally or non-formally, must be recognized so that they can be transferred and utilized. The existing titles of studies and accreditation mechanisms do not generally cover this need. This paper aims to propose an integrated approach for the evaluation of information technology knowledge and skills, regardless of where and how they have been acquired, so as to apply a continuous education and training policy. The proposed multicriteria methodology for the evaluation of qualifications and skills concerns candidates wishing to be accredited in an information technology specialization or profession. The methodology refers to the evaluation of the professional experience, studies and vocational training of the candidates for accreditation. It contains the analysis and modelling of the qualitative criteria as well as the implementation of multicriteria aggregation–disaggregation techniques attributing value to each criterion. Then, the candidates are classified in categories of professionals using the Electre Tri method, accepting as input data the multicriteria assessments on each criterion. The proposed evaluation approach has been adapted to the Greek educational system and is applied to a specific example of candidate.     

A way to deal with fuzzy preferences in multi-criteria decision problems

This paper presents a special multiple criteria decision making approach for solving problems in context with fuzzy individual preferences.At first we briefly expose the proposed methodology. The individual preferences are explicitly given by a complete transitive relation R on a set of reference actions. The modelling of the decision-maker's preferences is obtained by means of fuzzy outranking relations. These fuzzy relations are based on a system of additive utility functions which are estimated by means of ordinal regression methods analysing the preference relation R.This is followed by a presentation of two real multicriteria problems which the proposed methodology has been applied to, i.e. a highway plan choice problem and a problem in marketing research dealing with the launching of a new product. In each application we tried to specify this method according to the specific structure of the problem considered.     

Inferring Electre’s veto-related parameters from outranking examples

When considering Electre’s valued outranking relations, aggregation/disaggregation methodologies have difficulties in taking discordance (veto) into account. We present a partial inference procedure to compute the value of the veto-related parameters that best restore a set of outranking statements (i.e., examples that an Electre model should restore) provided by a decision maker, given fixed values for the remaining parameters of the model.This paper complements previous work on the inference of other preference-related parameters (weights, cutting level, category limits, …), advancing toward an integrated framework of inference problems in Electre III and Tri methods. We propose mathematical programs to infer veto-related parameters, first considering only one criterion, then all criteria simultaneously, using the original version of Electre outranking relation and two variants. This paper shows that these inference procedures lead to linear programming, 0–1 linear programming, or separable programming problems, depending on the case.     

Stochastic multicriteria decision making and uncertainty

We define the notion of stochastic multicriteria decision problem to take into account uncertainty in the data. A general approach is proposed to analyse these problems. As a special case, project evaluation by experts is considered. Stochastic independence problems are discussed and the notion of expected preference function is defined to introduce a stochastic extension of the Promethee outranking method.     

Multicriteria sorting using a valued indifference relation under a preference disaggregation paradigm

Most multicriteria decision methods need the definition of a significant amount of preferential information from a decision agent. The preference disaggregation analysis paradigm infers the model’s parameter values from holistic judgments provided by a decision agent. Here, a new method for inferring the parameters of a fuzzy outranking model for multicriteria sorting is proposed. This approach allows us to use most of the preferential information contained in a reference set. The central idea is to characterize the quality of the model by measuring discrepancies and concordances amongst (i) the preference relations derived from the outranking model, and (ii) the preferential information contained in the reference set. The model’s parameters are inferred from a multiobjective optimization problem, according to some additional preferential information from a decision agent. Once the model has been fitted, sorting decisions about new objects are performed by using a fuzzy indifference relation. This proposal performs very well in some examples.     

Multicriteria analysis: survey and new directions

Before the advent of multicriteria analysis, decision problems often took the form of the optimization of an objective function or a utility function. This approach has the advantage of resulting in well-defined mathematical problems but is not always representative of reality: in fact the comparison of several possible decisions is rarely made according to a single point of view and the preferences on a point of view are in many cases only modelled with difficulty by a function. The aim of this paper is to survey the different directions in which multicriteria analysis has developed: multiattribute utility theory, outranking relations, interactive methods. The methodology recently proposed by B. Roy is also presented.     

Handling effects of reinforced preference and counter-veto in credibility of outranking

The aim of this paper is to generalize the way of computing the credibility of outranking in a multiple criteria aggregation procedure, in view of taking into account two new effects called reinforced preference and counter-veto. These effects concern only those criteria for which, as soon as action a is “judged very strongly preferred” to action b, one wishes that the credibility of outranking of a over b is greater than that for the case where (all things equal elsewhere) the preference is not “judged very strong”. To achieve this goal, we propose two complementary ways. The first one involves a reinforced preference threshold which affects the concordance degree, and the second one involves a counter-veto threshold which affects the insertion of discordance degree in the calculation of the credibility of outranking. The introduction of these two new effects remains compatible with the handling of ordinal preference scales. The resulting new index of the credibility of outranking can be used, in particular, in ELECTRE methods.     

Outranking under uncertainty using scenarios

This paper considers the use of scenarios to treat uncertain attribute evaluations in the outranking methods. The scenario-based approach allows the decision maker to think deterministically about the problem by attaching causal links to a small number of potential outcomes, instead of using probability distributions. The scenario approach can be expressed as a simplified version of the comprehensive but practically complex “distributive” outranking method of d’Avignon and Vincke. Using a scenario approach has distinct practical advantages, but also presents the inherent danger that meaningful information is ignored. The extent of this danger is assessed using a simulation experiment, where it is found to be of a magnitude that is non-trivial but still potentially acceptable for certain decision contexts.