A non-stationary periodic review production–inventory model with uncertain production capacity and uncertain demand

In this paper we consider a nonstationary periodic review dynamic production–inventory model with uncertain production capacity and uncertain demand. The maximum production capacity varies stochastically. It is known that order up-to (or base-stock, critical number) policies are optimal for both finite horizon problems and infinite horizon problems. We obtain upper and lower bounds of the optimal order up-to levels, and show that for an infinite horizon problem the upper and the lower bounds of the optimal order up-to levels for the finite horizon counterparts converge as the planning horizons considered get longer. Furthermore, under mild conditions the differences between the upper and the lower bounds converge exponentially to zero.     

Dynamic dairy facility location and supply chain planning under traffic congestion and demand uncertainty: A case study of Tehran

In this paper, dynamic dairy facility location and supply chain planning are studied through minimizing the costs of facility location, traffic congestion and transportation of raw/processed milk and dairy products under demand uncertainty. The proposed model dynamically incorporates possible changes in transportation network, facility investment costs, monetary value of time and changes in production process. In addition, the time variation and the demand uncertainty for dairy products in each period of the planning horizon is taken into account to determine the optimal facility location and the optimal production volumes. Computational results are presented for the model on a number of test problems. Also, an empirical case study is conducted in order to investigate the dynamic effects of traffic congestion and demand uncertainty on facility location design and total system costs.     

A dynamic production planning and scheduling algorithm for two products processed on one line

This paper presents a dynamic production planning and scheduling algorithm for two products processed on one line over a fixed time horizon. Production rates are assumed fixed, and restrictions are placed or inventory levels and production run lengths. The resulting problem is a nonlinear binary program, which is solved using an implicit enumeration strategy. The algorithm focuses on the run changeover period while developing tighter bounds on the length of the upcoming run to improve computational efficiency. About 99% pf 297 randomly generated problems with varying demand patterns are solved in less than 15 seconds of CPU time on a CDC Cyber 172 Computer. A mixed integer programming formulation of the generalized multi-product case under no-backlogging of demand is also given.     

Operations policy for a supply chain system with fixed-interval delivery and linear demand

This research addresses a production-supply problem for a supply-chain system with fixed-interval delivery. A strategy that determines the optimal batch sizes, cycle times, numbers of orders of raw materials, and production start times is prescribed to minimize the total costs for a given finite planning horizon. The external demands are time-dependent following a life-cycle pattern and the shipment quantities follow the demand pattern. The shipment quantities to buyers follow various phases of the demand pattern in the planning horizon where demand is represented by piecewise linear model. The problem is formulated as an integer, non-linear programming problem. The model also incorporates the constraint of inventory capacity. The problem is represented using the network model where an optimal characteristic has been analysed. To obtain an optimal solution with N shipments in a planning horizon, an algorithm is proposed that runs with the complexity of Θ(N²) for problems with a single-phase demand and O(N³) for problems with multi-phase demand.     

A branch and bound algorithm for disassembly scheduling with assembly product structure

This paper considers a production planning problem in disassembly systems, which is the problem of determining the quantity and timing of disassembling end-of-use/life products in order to satisfy the demand of their parts or components over a planning horizon. The case of single product type without parts commonality is considered for the objective of minimizing the sum of setup and inventory holding costs. To show the complexity of the problem, we prove that the problem is NP-hard. Then, after deriving the properties of optimal solutions, a branch and bound algorithm is suggested that incorporates the Lagrangean relaxation-based upper and lower bounds. Computational experiments are performed on a number of randomly generated problems and the test results indicate that the branch and bound algorithm can give optimal solutions up to moderate-sized problems in a reasonable computation time. A Lagrangean heuristic for a viable alternative for large-sized problems is also suggested and compared with the existing heuristics to show its effectiveness.     

Production planning with time-dependent capacity bounds

In this paper, we examine the problem of finding minimum-cost production schedules that satisfy known demands over a finite planning horizon. A dynamic programming algorithm is developed to find these schedules for cases in which production in each period is constrained by a time-dependent capacity bound. The costs considered are production and inventory holding costs, and all cost functions are assumed to be nondecreasing and concave. The algorithm is an extension of Florian and Klein's method developed for problems in which capacity bounds are the same in all periods. Although the problem with time-dependent bounds is NP-complete, the algorithm is shown to be efficient when the capacity bounds are integer multiples of a common divisor and the largest multiplier is small. Hence, it is useful in applications in which production capacity is periodically increased by adding facilities of the same size.     

Flexible capacity strategy with multiple market periods under demand uncertainty and investment constraint

We establish a flexible capacity strategy model with multiple market periods under demand uncertainty and investment constraints. In the model, a firm makes its capacity decision under a financial budget constraint at the beginning of the planning horizon which embraces n market periods. In each market period, the firm goes through three decision-making stages: the safety production stage, the additional production stage and the optimal sales stage. We formulate the problem and obtain the optimal capacity, the optimal safety production, the optimal additional production and the optimal sales of each market period under different situations. We find that there are two thresholds for the unit capacity cost. When the capacity cost is very low, the optimal capacity is determined by its financial budget; when the capacity cost is very high, the firm keeps its optimal capacity at its safety production level; and when the cost is in between of the two thresholds, the optimal capacity is determined by the capacity cost, the number of market periods and the unit cost of additional production. Further, we explore the endogenous safety production level. We verify the conditions under which the firm has different optimal safety production levels. Finally, we prove that the firm can benefit from the investment only when the designed planning horizon is longer than a threshold. Moreover, we also derive the formulae for the above three thresholds.     

Economic lot sizing problem with inventory bounds

This paper studies a economic lot sizing (ELS) problem with both upper and lower inventory bounds. Bounded ELS models address inventory control problems with time-varying inventory capacity and safety stock constraints. An O(n²) algorithm is found by using net cumulative demand (NCD) to measure the amount of replenishment requested to fulfill the cumulative demand till the end of the planning horizon. An O(n) algorithm is found for the special case, the bounded ELS problem with non-increasing marginal production cost.     

A stochastic programming approach for planning horizons of infinite horizon capacity planning problems

Planning horizon is a key issue in production planning. Different from previous approaches based on Markov Decision Processes, we study the planning horizon of capacity planning problems within the framework of stochastic programming. We first consider an infinite horizon stochastic capacity planning model involving a single resource, linear cost structure, and discrete distributions for general stochastic cost and demand data (non-Markovian and non-stationary). We give sufficient conditions for the existence of an optimal solution. Furthermore, we study the monotonicity property of the finite horizon approximation of the original problem. We show that, the optimal objective value and solution of the finite horizon approximation problem will converge to the optimal objective value and solution of the infinite horizon problem, when the time horizon goes to infinity. These convergence results, together with the integrality of decision variables, imply the existence of a planning horizon. We also develop a useful formula to calculate an upper bound on the planning horizon. Then by decomposition, we show the existence of a planning horizon for a class of very general stochastic capacity planning problems, which have complicated decision structure.     

Optimal Pricing and Production Planning for Multi-product Multi-period Systems with Backorders

In this paper, we develop models for production planning with coordinated dynamic pricing. The application that motivated this research is manufacturing pricing, where the products are non-perishable assets and can be stored to fulfill the future demands. We assume that the firm does not change the price list very frequently. However, the developed model and its solution strategy have the capability to handle the general case of manufacturing systems with frequent time-varying price lists. We consider a multi-product capacitated setting and introduce a demand-based model, where the demand is a function of the price. The key parts of the model are that the planning horizon is discrete-time multi-period, and backorders are allowed. As a result of this, the problem becomes a nonlinear programming problem with the nonlinearities in both the objective function and some constraints. We develop an algorithm which computes the optimal production and pricing policy on a finite time horizon. We illustrate the application of the algorithm through a detailed numerical example.     

Multiple level production planning in rolling horizon assembly environments

In this paper, nine multiple level planning heuristics are evaluated to characterize how rolling horizon results relate to fixed horizon results in a deterministic demand environment. The weighted order cycle (WOC) is introduced as a single expression of cost structure within a multiple item bill of materials. When planning horizons are restated in terms of WOC (versus time buckets), it becomes apparent that the cost performance of the majority of the heuristics is essentially the same for fixed horizon and rolling horizon conditions when the planning horizon is at least two WOC in length. The horizon sensitive logic of the best two heuristics in cost performance also exhibited less nervousness then several horizon myopic rules, a counter intuitive result. An established multiple level cost modification technique was found to reduce the nervousness of single item rules, in addition to its original goal of schedule cost reduction. To gauge cost performance, Lagrangian relaxation of a binary formulation of the problem was used to find bounds within an average of 1% of the optimal solution cost of each simulation.     

Modeling fuzzy multi-period production planning and sourcing problem with credibility service levels

A great deal of research has been done on production planning and sourcing problems, most of which concern deterministic or stochastic demand and cost situations and single period systems. In this paper, we consider a new class of multi-period production planning and sourcing problem with credibility service levels, in which a manufacturer has a number of plants and subcontractors and has to meet the product demand according to the credibility service levels set by its customers. In the proposed problem, demands and costs are uncertain and assumed to be fuzzy variables with known possibility distributions. The objective of the problem is to minimize the total expected cost, including the expected value of the sum of the inventory holding and production cost in the planning horizon. Because the proposed problem is too complex to apply conventional optimization algorithms, we suggest an approximation approach (AA) to evaluate the objective function. After that, two algorithms are designed to solve the proposed production planning problem. The first is a PSO algorithm combining the AA, and the second is a hybrid PSO algorithm integrating the AA, neural network (NN) and PSO. Finally, one numerical example is provided to compare the effectiveness of the proposed two algorithms.     

An integrated production and preventive maintenance planning model

We are given a set of items that must be produced in lots on a capacitated production system throughout a specified finite planning horizon. We assume that the production system is subject to random failures, and that any maintenance action carried out on the system, in a period, reduces the system’s available production capacity during that period. The objective is to find an integrated lot-sizing and preventive maintenance strategy of the system that satisfies the demand for all items over the entire horizon without backlogging, and which minimizes the expected sum of production and maintenance costs. We show how this problem can be formulated and solved as a multi-item capacitated lot-sizing problem on a system that is periodically renewed and minimally repaired at failure. We also provide an illustrative example that shows the steps to obtain an optimal integrated production and maintenance strategy.     

Single versus multiple supplier sourcing strategies

Successful supply chain management necessitates an effective sourcing strategy to combat uncertainties in both supply and demand. In particular, supply disruption results in excessive downtime of production resources, upstream and downstream supply chain repercussions, and eventually a loss in the market value of the firm. In this paper we analyze single period, single product sourcing decisions under demand uncertainty. Our approach integrates product prices, supplier costs, supplier capacities, historical supplier reliabilities and firm specific inventory costs. A unique feature of our approach is the integration of a firm specific supplier diversification function. We also extend our analysis to examine the impact of minimum supplier order quantities. Our results indicate that single sourcing is a dominant strategy only when supplier capacities are large relative to the product demand and when the firm does not obtain diversification benefits. In other cases, we find that multiple sourcing is an optimal sourcing strategy. We also characterize a non-intuitive trade-off between supplier minimum order quantities, costs, and supplier reliabilities. Finally, we examine the robustness of our results through an extensive numerical analysis of the key parameters of our model.     

An Exact Solution Algorithm for a Class of Production Planning and Scheduling Problems

This paper presents a formulation and an exact solution algorithm for a class of production planning and scheduling problems. The problem is one of optimally specifying production levels for each product in each period of the planning horizon. The objective is to minimize the sum of the set-up, regular time production, overtime and inventory holding costs. The problem has been formulated as a variation of fixed charge transportation problem. The problem discussed here is NP-hard in computational complexity. A numerical example is presented for better understanding of the algorithm.     

Capacitated procurement planning with price-sensitive demand and general concave-revenue functions

This paper develops effective solution methods for discrete-time, finite-horizon procurement planning problems with economies of scale in procurement, price-sensitive demand, and time-invariant procurement capacities. Our models consider general concave-revenue functions in each time period, and seek to maximize total revenue less procurement and inventory holding costs. We consider the case in which prices may vary dynamically, as well the important practical case in which a constant price is required during the planning horizon. Under mild conditions on the revenue function properties, we provide polynomial-time solution methods for this problem class. The structural properties of optimal solutions that lead to efficient solution methods also serve to sharpen intuition regarding optimal demand management strategies in complex planning situations.     

Production strategies for a stochastic lot-sizing problem with constant capacity

This paper presents a single item capacitated stochastic lot-sizing problem motibated by a Dutch company operating in a Make-To-Order environment. Due to a highly fluctuating and unpredictable demand, it is not possible to keep any finished goods inventory. In response to a customer's order, a fixed delivery date is quoted by the company. The objective is to determine in each period of the planning horizon the optimal size of production lots so that delivery dates are met as closely as possible at the expense of minimal average costs. These include set-up costs, holding costs for orders that are finished before their promised delivery date and penalty costs for orders that are not satisfied on time and are therefore backordered. Given that the optimal production policy is likely to be too complex in this situation, attention is focused on the development of heuristic procedures. In this paper two heuristics are proposed. The first one is an extension of a simple production strategy derived by Dellaert [5] for the uncapacitated version of the problem. The second heuristic is based on the well-known Silver-Meal algorithm for the case of deterministic time-varying demand. Experimental results suggest that the first heuristic gives low average costs especially when the demand variability is low and there are large differences in the cost parameters. The Silver-Meal approach is usually outperformed by the first heuristic in situations where the available production capacity is tight and the demand variability is low.     

A static-dynamic strategy for spare part inventory systems with nonstationary stochastic demand

Inventory control is especially difficult when demand is stochastic and nonstationary. We consider a spare part inventory control problem with multiple-period replenishment lead time, and describe a static-dynamic strategy for the problem. By solving a static-dynamic uncertainty model, the strategy first makes decisions on the replenishment periods and order-up-to-levels over the planning horizon, but implements only the decisions of the first period. It then uses the rolling horizon approach in the next period when the inventory status is revised, and the multi-period problem is updated as better forecasts become available. In light of structural property of the developed static-dynamic uncertainty model, the optimal solution to the model can be obtained without much computational effort and thus the strategy can be easily implemented. Computational experiments and result of a case study verify the efficacy of the proposed strategy.     

Analysis of supply contracts with quantity flexibility

This paper explores a class of supply contracts under which a buyer receives discounts for committing to purchases in advance. The further in advance the commitment is made, the larger the discount. As time rolls forward, the buyer can increase the order quantities for future periods of the rolling horizon based on updated demand forecast information and inventory status. However, the buyer pays a higher per-unit cost for the incremental units. Such contracts are used by automobile and contract manufacturers, and are quite common in fuel oil and natural gas delivery markets. We develop a finite-horizon dynamic programming model to characterize the structure of the optimal replenishment strategy for the buyer. We present heuristic approaches to calculate the order volume in each period of the rolling horizon. Finally, we numerically evaluate the heuristic approaches and draw some managerial insights based on the findings.     

A Heuristic for a Resource-capacitated Multi-stage Lot-sizing Problem with Lead Times

In this paper we propose a heuristic for the resource-capacitated multi-stage lot-sizing problem with general product structures, set-up costs and resource usage, work-in-process inventory costs and lead times. To facilitate the functioning of the heuristic, we use the formulation of the problem based on Echelon Stock in a rolling horizon scheme. The heuristic first obtains a reasonable solution to the corresponding uncapacitated problem and then tries to attain capacity feasibility by shifting production backwards in time. The concept of echelon stock makes the task of checking the inventory feasibility of proposed shifts easier than would be the case with conventional installation stock. The heuristic is first tested computationally for problems with a five-component product structure over a 12 period planning horizon for which optimal solutions were available and for which optimality precision guarantees were also obtained via Lagrangian Relaxation. The heuristic's performance is also explored with two different 40-component product structures, with high and low set-up costs, and is compared with the Lagrangian precision guarantees.