Moderate deviation principle for autoregressive processes

A moderate deviation principle for autoregressive processes is established. As statistical applications we provide the moderate deviation estimates of the least square and the Yule–Walker estimators of the parameter of an autoregressive process. The main assumption on the autoregressive process is the Gaussian integrability condition for the noise, which is weaker than the assumption of Logarithmic Sobolev Inequality in [H. Djellout, A. Guillin, L. Wu, Moderate deviations of empirical periodogram and nonlinear functionals of moving average processes, Ann. I. H. Poincaré-PR 42 (2006) 393–416].     

Pitfalls of Fitting Autoregressive Models for Heavy-Tailed Time Series

We consider the analysis of time series data which require models with a heavy-tailed marginal distribution. A natural model to attempt to fit to time series data is an autoregression of order p, where p itself is often determined from the data. Several methods of parameter estimation for heavy tailed autoregressions have been considered, including Yule–Walker estimation, linear programming estimators, and periodogram based estimators. We investigate the statistical pitfalls of the first two methods when the models are mis-specified—either completely or due to the presence of outliers. We illustrate the results of our considerations on both simulated and real data sets. A warning is sounded against the assumption that autoregressions will be an applicable class of models for fitting heavy tailed data.     

Bivariate Birnbaum–Saunders distribution and associated inference

Univariate Birnbaum–Saunders distribution has been used quite effectively to model positively skewed data, especially lifetime data and crack growth data. In this paper, we introduce bivariate Birnbaum–Saunders distribution which is an absolutely continuous distribution whose marginals are univariate Birnbaum–Saunders distributions. Different properties of this bivariate Birnbaum–Saunders distribution are then discussed. This new family has five unknown parameters and it is shown that the maximum likelihood estimators can be obtained by solving two non-linear equations. We also propose simple modified moment estimators for the unknown parameters which are explicit and can therefore be used effectively as an initial guess for the computation of the maximum likelihood estimators. We then present the asymptotic distributions of the maximum likelihood estimators and use them to construct confidence intervals for the parameters. We also discuss likelihood ratio tests for some hypotheses of interest. Monte Carlo simulations are then carried out to examine the performance of the proposed estimators. Finally, a numerical data analysis is performed in order to illustrate all the methods of inference discussed here.     

Robust Estimation of the Generalized Pareto Distribution

One approach used for analyzing extremes is to fit the excesses over a high threshold by a generalized Pareto distribution. For the estimation of the shape and scale parameters in the generalized Pareto distribution, under some restrictions on the value of the scale parameter, maximum likelihood, method of moments and probability weighted moments' estimators are available. However, these are not robust estimators. In this paper we implement a robust estimation procedure known as the method of medians (He and Fung, 1999) to estimate the parameters in the generalized Pareto distribution. The asymptotic distribution of our estimator is normal for any value of the shape parameter except –1.     

Asymptotic properties of a particular nonlinear regression quantile estimation

In this paper we shall be concerned with the asymptotic properties of the regression quantile estimation in the nonlinear regression time series models. For these, first we prove the strong consistency and derive the asymptotic normality of the regression quantile estimators for a particular sinusoidal regression model with a simple harmonic component. Next, we extend the results to more complicated sinusoidal models of several harmonic components.     

Asymptotic normality of the likelihood moment estimators for a stationary linear process with heavy-tailed innovations

The authors recently proved in Martig and Hüsler (2016) that the likelihood moment estimators are consistent estimators for the parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution for the case where the underlying data arises from a (stationary) linear process with heavy-tailed innovations. In this paper we derive the bivariate asymptotic normality under some additional assumptions and give an explicit example on how to check these conditions by using asymptotic expansions. Some finite sample comparisons are presented to investigate the bias and variance behavior for some of the estimators.     

Partial Influence Functions

In this paper we extend the definition of the influence function to functionals of more than one distribution, that is, for estimators depending on more than one sample, such as the pooled variance, the pooled covariance matrix, and the linear discriminant analysis coefficients. In this case the appropriate designation should be “partial influence functions,” following the analogy with derivatives and partial derivatives. Some useful results are derived, such as an asymptotic variance formula. These results are then applied to several estimators of the Mahalanobis distance between two populations and the linear discriminant function coefficients.     

Estimation of matrix valued realized signal to noise ratio

In this paper we derive several estimators of matrix valued realized signal to noise ratio as defined by Khatri and Rao (1987, IEEE Trans. Acoust. Speech Signal Process. ASSP-35, No. 5 671–679) for real and complex cases. To do so we define the matrix valued confluent hypergeometric distribution and establish some of its properties. Also we derive unique admissible estimates under generalized Pitman nearness. Finally a discussion of confidence interval estimation for signal to noise ratio is given.     

Kullback-Leibler Information Consistent Estimation for Censored Data

This paper is intended as an investigation of parametric estimation for the randomly right censored data. In parametric estimation, the Kullback-Leibler information is used as a measure of the divergence of a true distribution generating a data relative to a distribution in an assumed parametric model M. When the data is uncensored, maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is a consistent estimator of minimizing the Kullback-Leibler information, even if the assumed model M does not contain the true distribution. We call this property minimum Kullback-Leibler information consistency (MKLI-consistency). However, the MLE obtained by maximizing the likelihood function based on the censored data is not MKLI-consistent. As an alternative to the MLE, Oakes (1986, Biometrics, 42, 177–182) proposed an estimator termed approximate maximum likelihood estimator (AMLE) due to its computational advantage and potential for robustness. We show MKLI-consistency and asymptotic normality of the AMLE under the misspecification of the parametric model. In a simulation study, we investigate mean square errors of these two estimators and an estimator which is obtained by treating a jackknife corrected Kaplan-Meier integral as the log-likelihood. On the basis of the simulation results and the asymptotic results, we discuss comparison among these estimators. We also derive information criteria for the MLE and the AMLE under censorship, and which can be used not only for selecting models but also for selecting estimation procedures.     

Asymptotic representations for importance-sampling estimators of value-at-risk and conditional value-at-risk

Value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) are important risk measures. They are often estimated by using importance-sampling (IS) techniques. In this paper, we derive the asymptotic representations for IS estimators of VaR and CVaR. Based on these representations, we are able to prove the consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators and to provide simple conditions under which the IS estimators have smaller asymptotic variances than the ordinary Monte Carlo estimators.     

Estimation de Yule–Walker d'un CAR(p) observé à temps discret

Let (X(lδ), l=0,n) be a discrete observation at mesh δ>0 of X, a CAR(p). Classical Yule–Walker estimation are biased and must be corrected. Resultant estimators converge if T=nδ→+∞, are asymptotically normal with rate , and efficient. The diffusion coefficient is also estimated, with rate .     

The standard error of nonparametric density estimates

We study the asymptotic behavior of the errors in the Parzen estimators of normal and Cauchy distribution densities for different kernels.Translated from Statisticheskie Metody, pp. 3–18, 1980.     

Weighted local polynomial estimations of a non-parametric function with censoring indicators missing at random and their applications

In this paper, we consider the weighted local polynomial calibration estimation and imputation estimation of a non-parametric function when the data are right censored and the censoring indicators are missing at random, and establish the asymptotic normality of these estimators. As their applications, we derive the weighted local linear calibration estimators and imputation estimations of the conditional distribution function, the conditional density function and the conditional quantile function, and investigate the asymptotic normality of these estimators. Finally, the simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performance of the estimators.     

Estimating parameters in one-way analysis of covariance model with short-tailed symmetric error distributions

We consider one-way analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) model with a single covariate when the distribution of error terms are short-tailed symmetric. The maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of the parameters are intractable. We, therefore, employ a simple method known as modified maximum likelihood (MML) to derive the estimators of the model parameters. The method is based on linearization of the intractable terms in likelihood equations. Incorporating these linearizations in the maximum likelihood, we get the modified likelihood equations. Then the MML estimators which are the solutions of these modified equations are obtained. Computer simulations were performed to investigate the efficiencies of the proposed estimators. The simulation results show that the proposed estimators are remarkably efficient compared with the conventional least squares (LS) estimators.     

Double k-Class Estimators in Regression Models with Non-spherical Disturbances

In this paper, we consider a family of feasible generalised double k-class estimators in a linear regression model with non-spherical disturbances. We derive the large sample asymptotic distribution of the proposed family of estimators and compare its performance with the feasible generalized least squares and Stein-rule estimators using the mean squared error matrix and risk under quadratic loss criteria. A Monte-Carlo experiment investigates the finite sample behaviour of the proposed family of estimators.     

A sequence of improvements over the James-Stein estimator

In this article, we consider the problem of estimating a p-variate (p ≥ 3) normal mean vector in a decision-theoretic setup. Using a simple property of the noncentral chi-square distribution, we have produced a sequence of smooth estimators dominating the James-Stein estimator and each improved estimator is better than the previous one. It is also shown by using a technique of [5]. J. Multivariate Anal.36 121–126) that our smooth estimators can be dominated by non-smooth estimators.     

On the distribution of penalized maximum likelihood estimators: The LASSO, SCAD, and thresholding

We study the distributions of the LASSO, SCAD, and thresholding estimators, in finite samples and in the large-sample limit. The asymptotic distributions are derived for both the case where the estimators are tuned to perform consistent model selection and for the case where the estimators are tuned to perform conservative model selection. Our findings complement those of Knight and Fu [K. Knight, W. Fu, Asymptotics for lasso-type estimators, Annals of Statistics 28 (2000) 1356–1378] and Fan and Li [J. Fan, R. Li, Variable selection via non-concave penalized likelihood and its oracle properties, Journal of the American Statistical Association 96 (2001) 1348–1360]. We show that the distributions are typically highly non-normal regardless of how the estimator is tuned, and that this property persists in large samples. The uniform convergence rate of these estimators is also obtained, and is shown to be slower than n^−1/2 in case the estimator is tuned to perform consistent model selection. An impossibility result regarding estimation of the estimators’ distribution function is also provided.     

On estimating distribution functions using Bernstein polynomials

It is a known fact that some estimators of smooth distribution functions can outperform the empirical distribution function in terms of asymptotic (integrated) mean-squared error. In this paper, we show that this is also true of Bernstein polynomial estimators of distribution functions associated with densities that are supported on a closed interval. Specifically, we introduce a higher order expansion for the asymptotic (integrated) mean-squared error of Bernstein estimators of distribution functions and examine the relative deficiency of the empirical distribution function with respect to these estimators. Finally, we also establish the (pointwise) asymptotic normality of these estimators and show that they have highly advantageous boundary properties, including the absence of boundary bias.     

Some Spectral Properties of One Sturm-Liouville Type Problem with Discontinuous Weight

We consider a discontinuous weight Sturm-Liouville equation together with eigenparameter dependent boundary conditions and two supplementary transmission conditions at the point of discontinuity. We extend and generalize some approaches and results of the classic regular Sturm-Liouville problems to the similar problems with discontinuities. In particular, we introduce a special Hilbert space formulation in such a way that the problem under consideration can be interpreted as an eigenvalue problem for a suitable selfadjoint operator, construct the Green’s function and resolvent operator, and derive asymptotic formulas for eigenvalues and normalized eigenfunctions.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 Mukhtarov O. Sh. and Kadakal M.__________Translated from Sibirskii Matematicheskii Zhurnal, Vol. 46, No. 4, pp. 860–875, July–August, 2005.