Second-order preferences in group decision making

We propose an aggregation method based on the concept of second-order preferences, which is capable of assigning a value function on the finite set of alternatives for each group member. This study incorporates a criterion of equity among individuals, in which everybody influences the group ranking to the same degree.     

Offshore outsourcing decision making: A policy-maker’s perspective

This research aims at finding the best governing policy for offshore outsourcing of business activities. We use Analytical Network Process, a multicriteria decision making methodology, to create the evaluation framework. From the perspective of decision makers, stakeholders, and influence groups, four policy options are evaluated with respect to approximately 50 economic, political, technological and other factors. The model provides both long-term and short-term views of the outsourcing issue concerned to all parties. The all-inclusive approach helps policy makers to decide on the best policy and has the potential to ease tension between proponents and opponents of offshore outsourcing.     

Modeling subjective evaluation for fuzzy group multicriteria decision making

This paper presents a new fuzzy multicriteria decision making (MCDM) approach for evaluating decision alternatives involving subjective judgements made by a group of decision makers. A pairwise comparison process is used to help individual decision makers make comparative judgements, and a linguistic rating method is used for making absolute judgements. A hierarchical weighting method is developed to assess the weights of a large number of evaluation criteria by pairwise comparisons. To reflect the inherent imprecision of subjective judgements, individual assessments are aggregated as a group assessment using triangular fuzzy numbers. To obtain a cardinal preference value for each decision alternative, a new fuzzy MCDM algorithm is developed by extending the concept of the degree of optimality to incorporate criteria weights in the distance measurement. An empirical study of aircraft selection is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the approach.     

Improving decision making by using performance feedback: An empirical study

This paper examines the impact of 3 levels of performance feedback on the production scheduling decision in both quadratic and linear cost environments. Increased feedback was shown to improve learning rate and reduce erratic or search behavior. The level of performance feedback necessary to obtain the improved learning differs between the quadratic and linear cost environments.     

Possibilistic sequential decision making

When the information about uncertainty cannot be quantified in a simple, probabilistic way, the topic of possibilistic decision theory is often a natural one to consider. The development of possibilistic decision theory has lead to the proposition a series of possibilistic criteria, namely: optimistic and pessimistic possibilistic qualitative criteria [7], possibilistic likely dominance [2], [9], binary possibilistic utility [11] and possibilistic Choquet integrals [24]. This paper focuses on sequential decision making in possibilistic decision trees. It proposes a theoretical study on the complexity of the problem of finding an optimal strategy depending on the monotonicity property of the optimization criteria – when the criterion is transitive, this property indeed allows a polytime solving of the problem by Dynamic Programming. We show that most possibilistic decision criteria, but possibilistic Choquet integrals, satisfy monotonicity and that the corresponding optimization problems can be solved in polynomial time by Dynamic Programming. Concerning the possibilistic likely dominance criteria which is quasi-transitive but not fully transitive, we propose an extended version of Dynamic Programming which remains polynomial in the size of the decision tree. We also show that for the particular case of possibilistic Choquet integrals, the problem of finding an optimal strategy is NP-hard. It can be solved by a Branch and Bound algorithm. Experiments show that even not necessarily optimal, the strategies built by Dynamic Programming are generally very good.     

A model of the executive's decision processes in new product development

This paper introduces the concept of fuzziness to deal quantitatively with the imprecision of the meaning of the executive's judgment stated in a natural language and presents a model of the executive's decision processes for the new product introduction which contain fuzzy-2 states, fuzzy-2 information systems, fuzzy-2 information signals, fuzzy-2 strategy are presented. The committee decision problem under fuzzy-2 constraints is dealt with.     

Self-consistency of decision rules for group decision making

The author treats, in this paper, a group of decision makers, where each of them already has preference on a given set of alternatives but the group as a whole does not have a decision rule to make their group decision, yet. Then, the author examines which decision rules are appropriate. As a criterion of “appropriateness” the author proposes the concepts of self-consistency and universal self-consistency of decision rules. Examining the existence of universally self-consistent decision rules in two cases: (1) decision situations with three decision makers and two alternatives, and (2) those with three decision makers and three alternatives, the author has found that all decision rules are universally self-consistent in the case (1), whereas all universally self-consistent decision rules have one and just one vetoer in the essential cases in (2). The result in the case (2) implies incompatibility of universal self-consistency with symmetry. An example of applications of the concept of self-consistency to a bankruptcy problem is also provided in this paper, where compatibility of self-consistency with symmetry in a particular decision situation is shown.     

A taxonomy for decision models

Decision models can be classified according to the number of decision makers (x ₁), of decision criteria (x ₂), and of decisions called for (x ₃). If we allow eachx _j to take one of the values 1 or m (many), we have 8 possible triples (x ₁,x ₂,x ₃) each of which defines or describes a class of decision models. The simplest and by far the most prevalent in textbooks and journals are the two (1, 1,m) and (1, 1, 1). The two classes (m, 1,x ₃) include most of game theory and models for fair allocation; the importance of these classes is widely comprehended. The classes (1,m,x ₃) are somewhat less well understood although increasingly recognized in the literature of decision models. The class (m, m, 1) has not achieved broad attention even though it relates to highly important national and worldwide problems. Finally, despite its potential importance, the class (m, m, m) has received almost no attention from modelers.     

Confidence structures in decision making

Decision making is defined in terms of four elements: the set of decisions, the set of outcomes for each decision, a set-valued criterion function, and the decision maker's value judgment for each outcome. Various confidence structures are defined, which give the decision maker's confidence of a given decision leading to a particular outcome. The relation of certain confidence structures to Bayesian decision making and to membership functions in fuzzy set theory is established. A number of schemes are discussed for arriving atbest decisions, and some new types of domination structures are introduced.This research was partly supported by Project No. NR-047-021, ONR Contract No. N-00014-75-C-0569 with the Center for Cybernetic Studies, The University of Texas, Austin, Texas, and by ONR Contract No. N-00014-69-A-0200-1012 with the University of California, Berkeley, California.     

Multicriteria decision making under uncertainty

Formalization for problems of multicriteria decision making under uncertainty is constructed in terms of guaranteed and weak estimates. A relevant definition of the vector maximinimax value is given. Parameterization and approximation of maximum, minimax, and maximinimax values based on the inverse logical convolution are suggested. An application for multicommodity networks is considered. Received: December 13, 2000 / Accepted: August 21, 2001?Published online May 8, 2002     

Approaches to multistage one-shot decision making

In this research, multistage one-shot decision making under uncertainty is studied. In such a decision problem, a decision maker has one and only one chance to make a decision at each stage with possibilistic information. Based on the one-shot decision theory, approaches to multistage one-shot decision making are proposed. In the proposed approach, a decision maker chooses one state amongst all the states according to his/her attitude about satisfaction and possibility at each stage. The payoff at each stage is associated with the focus points at the succeeding stages. Based on the selected states (focus points), the sequence of optimal decisions is determined by dynamic programming. The proposed method is a fundamental alternative for multistage decision making under uncertainty because it is scenario-based instead of lottery-based as in the other existing methods. The one-shot optimal stopping problem is analyzed where a decision maker has only one chance to determine stopping or continuing at each stage. The theoretical results have been obtained.     

Analytic hierarchy process-hesitant group decision making

In this paper, we consider that the judgments provided by the decision makers (DMs) cannot be aggregated and revised, then define them as hesitant judgments to describe the hesitancy experienced by the DMs in decision making. If there exist hesitant judgments in analytic hierarchy process-group decision making (AHP-GDM), then we call it AHP-hesitant group decision making (AHP-HGDM) as an extension of AHP-GDM. Based on hesitant multiplicative preference relations (HMPRs) to collect the hesitant judgments, we develop a hesitant multiplicative programming method (HMPM) as a new prioritization method to derive ratio-scale priorities from HMPRs. The HMPM is discussed in detail with examples to show its advantages and characteristics. The practicality and effectiveness of our methods are illustrated by an example of the water conservancy in China.     

Fuzzy preference orderings in group decision making

In this paper, some use of fuzzy preference orderings in group decision making is discussed. First, fuzzy preference orderings are defined as fuzzy binary relations satisfying reciprocity and max-min transitivity. Then, particularly in the case where individual preferences are represented by utility functions (utility values), group fuzzy preference orderings of which fuzziness is caused by differences or diversity of individual opinions are defined. Those orderings might be useful for proceeding the group decision making process smoothly, in the same manner as the extended contributive rule method.     

Aggregation and decision making using ranked data

Nonparametric procedures are frequently used to rank order alternatives. Often, information from several data sets must be aggregated to derive an overall ranking. When using nonparametric procedures, Simpson-like paradoxes can occur in which the conclusion drawn from the aggregate ranked data set seems contradictory to the conclusions drawn from the individual data sets. Extending previous results found in the literature for the Kruskal–Wallis test, this paper presents a strict condition that ranked data must satisfy in order to avoid this type of inconsistency when using nonparametric pairwise procedures or Bhapkar’s V procedure to extract an overall ranking. Aggregating ranked data poses further difficulties because there exist numerous ways to combine ranked data sets. This paper illustrates these difficulties and derives an upper bound for the number of possible ways that two ranked data sets can be combined.     

Hesitant fuzzy information aggregation in decision making

As a generalization of fuzzy set, hesitant fuzzy set is a very useful tool in situations where there are some difficulties in determining the membership of an element to a set caused by a doubt between a few different values. The aim of this paper is to develop a series of aggregation operators for hesitant fuzzy information. We first discuss the relationship between intutionistic fuzzy set and hesitant fuzzy set, based on which we develop some operations and aggregation operators for hesitant fuzzy elements. The correlations among the aggregation operators are further discussed. Finally, we give their application in solving decision making problems.     

Computerized support systems for emergency decision making

In all fields of human society, occasional emergencies are almost inevitable. Once an emergency occurs, rapid and proper decision making is required. The purpose of this paper is to explore the design and development of computerized support systems for emergency decision making (EDM). First the characteristics of EDM problems are examined. Then, in view of limited human computer rationality, requirements for a computerized support system for EDM are determined. A conceptual structure for knowledge-based distributed emergency decision support systems is proposed. Finally, a prototype system for safety protection and disaster response in coal mines, developed using the proposed structure, is briefly described.This work is partly supported by the State Science and Technology Commission of China, the National Key Laboratory on Industrial Control of China and Fok Ying Tung Education Foundation.     

Risk averse decision making under catastrophic risk

A nonstandard probabilistic setting for modeling of the risk of catastrophic events is presented. It allows random variables to take on infinitely large negative values with non-zero probability, which correspond to catastrophic consequences unmeasurable in monetary terms, e.g. loss of human lives. Thanks to this extension, the safety-first principle is proved to be consistent with traditional axioms on a preference relation, such as monotonicity, continuity, and risk aversion. Also, a robust preference relation is introduced, and an example of a monotone robust preference relation, sensitive to catastrophic events in the sense of Chichilnisky (2002), is provided. The suggested setting is demonstrated in evaluating nuclear power plant projects when the probability of a catastrophe is itself a random variable.     

Approximations of Bayes decision problems: the epigraphical approach

Solving Bayesian decision problems usually requires approximation procedures, all leading to study the convergence of the approximating infima. This aspect is analysed in the context of epigraphical convergence of integral functionals, as minimal context for convergence of infima. The results, applied to the Monte Carlo importance sampling, give a necessary and sufficient condition for convergence of the approximations of Bayes decision problems and sufficient conditions for a large class of Bayesian statistical decision problems.     

Interactive decision making: Equivalence of modified formulations

We discuss the use of a quadratic norm for departures from the bliss value of a decision problem under conflicting objectives. The use of a quadratic norm is, for example, of interest within the dynamic framework of optimal control. The symmetric nature of the quadratic norm is relaxed to allow for nonsymmetric preferences. The possibility of tailoring the quadratic objective function to generate optimal policies which are acceptable to the policy maker is explored with two alternative interactive algorithms. One of these is for objective functions with diagonal weighting matrices and uses updates of the bliss values. The second algorithm proceeds by updating non-diagonal weights, while keeping the bliss values fixed. The equivalence of both algorithms is established.