变利率风险模型下破产概率的渐近估计

本文考虑变利率的离散时间风险模型的破产概率．在个体净损失服从ERV族和DnL族时,分别得到了有限时间和无限时间破产概率的渐近估计及上下界表达式,并利用matlab软件对有限时间破产概率的下界进行了数值模拟．     

信用传染违约Aalen加性风险模型

本文考虑了基于加性风险模型的信用风险违约预报模型,不但考虑了宏观因素和公司个体因素,并且通过引入行业因素来刻画公司间可能存在的不同于宏观因素的信用传染效应,由此克服了以往模型对违约相关性的低估.本文在参数加性风险模型下给出极大似然估计及渐近性,提出两种估计方法并比较二者表现,得到最优权估计更加有效.同时本文还考虑了半参数的风险模型,并基于鞅的估计方程得到其估计及渐近性,均得到不错的结果.     

宽象限相依随机变量部分和的中偏差及其在保险中的应用

研究了控制变换尾分布的宽象限相依实值随机变量部分和的中偏差.相应于所得到的理论结果,进一步给出了在相依保险风险模型中的两个应用;一是在基于顾客到达过程的保险风险模型中,保险公司盈余的渐近估计;二是在复合更新风险模型中,有限时和无限时破产概率的一致渐近估计.     

截断分布族中估计的渐近有效性（II）

本文在一般截断型分布族中给出了参数函数的估计的Ｂａｈａｄｕｒ型渐近有效性的一种定义，验证了常用估计德这种渐近有效性，比较了Ｂａｈａｄｕｒ型与竹内启型渐近有效性之间的关系，系统地给出了具有Ｂａｈａｄｕｒ型但不具竹内启型渐近有效性估计的例子。     

常利息力下非标准连续时间更新风险模型破产概率的渐近性态

讨论一个非标准连续时间更新风险模型,其中理赔变量序列为一列两两尾拟渐近独立(TQAI)非负随机变量,在常数利息力假定下,得到了其有限时间破产概率的渐近估计式,并进一步讨论了估计的一致性,推广了[1,2,8]等文献的结果.     

保费随机的离散风险模型的罚金期望函数

本文把经典的复合二项风险模型进行推广,其中保费收取方式不再是时间的线性函数而是一个二项过程.我们把它的罚金期望看成初始资本的函数,得到了罚金期望函数的递推公式和渐近估计,最后利用罚金期望函数的递推公式和渐近估计给出了几个重要的破产量的递推公式及其渐近估计.     

重尾索赔下带干扰更新模型的破产理论

研究了带干扰的更新风险模型,得到了重尾索赔下罚金折现期望函数的渐近表达式.     

索赔为稀疏过程的风险模型的研究

提出了一种保费收取过程为二项过程而索赔过程为其稀疏过程的风险模型,讨论了该模型的Gerber-Shiu折现罚金函数,得到了Gerber-Shiu折现罚金函数所满足的更新方程和渐近估计式,并且根据Gerber-Shiu折现罚金函数的特点,还得到了一些相关精算量的渐近估计式.     

截断分布族中估计的渐近有效性（Ⅱ）

本文在一般截断型分布族中给出了参数函数的估计的Ｂａｈａｄｕｒ型渐近有效性的一种定义，验证了常用估计德这种渐近有效性，比较了Ｂａｈａｄｕｒ型与竹内启型渐近有效性之间的关系，系统地给出了具有Ｂａｈａｄｕｒ型但不具竹内启型渐近有效性估计的例子。     

中立型比例延迟微分系统线性θ-方法的渐近估计

本文研究了一类线性非自治中立型比例延迟微分系统线性θ-方法的渐近稳定性,并借助于泛函不等式得到了数值解的渐近估计.此渐近估计不仅比数值渐近稳定性描述得更加精确,而且还能给出非稳定情形数值解的上界估计式.数值算例验证了相关理论结果.     

A weakly supercritical mode in a branching random walk

The case of weakly supercritical branching random walks is considered. A theorem on asymptotic behavior of the eigenvalue of the operator defining the process is obtained for this case. Analogues of the theorems on asymptotic behavior of the Green function under large deviations of a branching random walk and asymptotic behavior of the spread front of population of particles are established for the case of a simple symmetric branching random walk over a many-dimensional lattice. The constants for these theorems are exactly determined in terms of parameters of walking and branching.     

Random Walks on Directed Covers of Graphs

Directed covers of finite graphs are also known as periodic trees or trees with finitely many cone types. We expand the existing theory of directed covers of finite graphs to those of infinite graphs. While the lower growth rate still equals the branching number, upper and lower growth rates no longer coincide in general. Furthermore, the behavior of random walks on directed covers of infinite graphs is more subtle. We provide a classification in terms of recurrence and transience and point out that the critical random walk may be recurrent or transient. Our proof is based on the observation that recurrence of the random walk is equivalent to the almost sure extinction of an appropriate branching process. Two examples in random environment are provided: homesick random walk on infinite percolation clusters and random walk in random environment on directed covers. Furthermore, we calculate, under reasonable assumptions, the rate of escape with respect to suitable length functions and prove the existence of the asymptotic entropy providing an explicit formula which is also a new result for directed covers of finite graphs. In particular, the asymptotic entropy of random walks on directed covers of finite graphs is positive if and only if the random walk is transient.     

Tail behavior of supremum of a random walk when Cramér’s condition fails

We investigate tail behavior of the supremum of a random walk in the case that Cramer＇s condition fails, namely, the intermediate case and the heavy-tailed ease. When the integrated distribution of the increment of the random walk belongs to the intersection of exponential distribution class and O-subexponential distribution class, under some other suitable conditions, we obtain some asymptotic estimates for the tail probability of the supremum and prove that the distribution of the supremum also belongs to the same distribution class. The obtained results generalize some corresponding results of N. Veraverbeke. Finally, these results are applied to renewal risk model, and asymptotic estimates for the ruin probability are presented.     

A random walk with a branching system in random environments

We consider a branching random walk in random environments, where the particles are reproduced as a branching process with a random environment (in time), and move independently as a random walk on Z with a random environment (in locations). We obtain the asymptotic properties on the position of the rightmost particle at time n, revealing a phase transition phenomenon of the system.     

Edge-reinforced random walk on one-dimensional periodic graphs

In the present paper, linearly edge-reinforced random walk is studied on a large class of one-dimensional periodic graphs satisfying a certain reflection symmetry. It is shown that the edge-reinforced random walk is recurrent. Estimates for the position of the random walker are given. The edge-reinforced random walk has a unique representation as a random walk in a random environment, where the random environment is given by random weights on the edges. It is shown that these weights decay exponentially in space. The distribution of the random weights equals the distribution of the asymptotic proportion of time spent by the edge-reinforced random walker on the edges of the graph. The results generalize work of the authors in Merkl and Rolles (Ann Probab 33(6):2051–2093, 2005; 35(1):115–140, 2007) and Rolles (Probab Theory Related Fields 135(2):216–264, 2006) to a large class of graphs and to periodic initial weights with a reflection symmetry.     

Random walks with non-convolution equivalent increments and their applications

This paper mainly presents some global and local asymptotic estimates for the tail probabilities of the supremum and overshoot of a random walk in “the intermediate case”, where the related distributions of the increments of the random walk may not belong to the convolution equivalent distribution class. Some of the obtained results can include the classical results. For this, the paper first introduces some new distribution classes using the γ-transform of distributions, and investigates their properties and relations with some other existing distribution classes. Based on the above results, some equivalent conditions for the global and local asymptotics of the γ-transform of the distribution of the supremum of the above random walk are given. Applying these results to risk theory and infinitely divisible laws, the paper obtains some asymptotic estimates for the ruin probability and the local ruin probability of the renewal risk model with non-convolution equivalent claims, and the global and local asymptotics of an infinitely divisible law with a non-convolution equivalent Lévy measure.     

Approximation of the expectation of the first exit time from an interval for a random walk

We obtain asymptotic expansions for the expectation of the first exit time from an expanding strip for a random walk trajectory. We suppose that the distribution of random walk jumps satisfies the Cramér condition on the existence of an exponential moment.     

Asymptotic direction for random walks in random environments

In this paper we study the existence of an asymptotic direction for random walks in random i.i.d. environments (RWRE). We prove that if the set of directions where the walk is transient contains a non-empty open set, the walk admits an asymptotic direction. The main tool to obtain this result is the construction of a renewal structure with cones. We also prove that RWRE admits at most two opposite asymptotic directions.     

On the limit behavior of the distribution of the crossing number of a strip by sample paths of a random walk

We find asymptotic representations for the distribution of the crossing number of an expanding strip by sample paths of a random walk in the case when the crossing number is finite with probability 1. The results are obtained under various restrictions on the rate of decrease at infinity for the distribution tails.     

Limit distributions for the number of particles in branching random walks

We study branching random walks with continuous time. Particles performing a random walk on ?², are allowed to be born and die only at the origin. It is assumed that the offspring reproduction law at the branching source is critical and the random walk outside the source is homogeneous and symmetric. Given particles at the origin, we prove a conditional limit theorem for the joint distribution of suitably normalized numbers of particles at the source and outside it as time unboundedly increases. As a consequence, we establish the asymptotic independence of such random variables.