Entry and exit decisions with linear costs under uncertainty

From the viewpoint of stochastic programming, we rigorously analyse entry and exit decisions of a project which were proposed by Dixit [A. Dixit, Entry and exit decisions under uncertainty, J. Polit. Econ. 97 (1989), pp. 620–638]. In this article, instead of assuming that the costs are constant in classical research, we assume that they are linear with respect to the price of the commodity produced by the project. Under this assumption, we obtain a condition which guarantees that investing in the project is worthless; besides, the project may be terminated when the commodity price is greater than a certain value. In contrast, there are no such results provided that the costs are constant. Moreover, we provide an explicit solution of entry and exit decisions if the project is worthy to be invested in.     

On the martingale and free-boundary approaches in sequential detection problems with exponential penalty for delay

We study the connection between the martingale and free-boundary approaches in sequential detection problems for the drift of a Brownian motion, under the assumption of exponential penalty for the delay. By means of the solution of a suitable free-boundary problem, we show that the reward process can be decomposed into the product between a gain function of the boundary point and a positive martingale inside the continuation region.     

Constructing open-loop and closed-loop solutions of linear-quadratic optimal control problems

A linear-quadratic optimal control problem subject to geometric constraints on the controls is studied. Techniques for finding the optimal open-loop control and constructing a closed-loop control are described. The problem solution can include special intervals and sections with chattering modes. The proposed techniques make it possible to find special intervals and construct realizable approximations of unrealizable chattering modes to any degree of accuracy.     

The inverse balayage problem for Markov chains,part II

This paper continues the study of the inverse balayage problem for Markov chains. Let X be a Markov chain with state space $\text{A ? B}{}_2$, let v be a probability measure on B₂ and let M(v) consist of probability measures μ on A whose X-balayage onto B₂ is v. The faces of the compact, convex set M(v) are characterized. For fixed μ?M(v) the set M(μ,v) of the measures ? of the form $\text{?(·) = P}{}^{\mathrm{\mu }}\text{{X(S) ? ·}}$, where S is a randomized stopping time, is analyzed in detail. In particular, its extreme points and edge are explicitly identified. A naturally defined reversed chain X, for which v is an inverse balayage of μ, is introduced and the relation between X and X^ is studied. The question of which $\text{? ? M(μ, v)}$ admit a natural stopping time $\text{S}{}_{\mathrm{?}}$ of X (not involving an independent randomization) such that $\text{?(·) = P}{}^{\mathrm{\mu }}\text{{X(S}{}_{\mathrm{?}}\text{) ? ·}}$, is shown to have rather different answers in discrete and continuous time. Illustrative examples are presented.     

考虑红利支付与提前退休的最优投资组合

研究了在经济代理人通过不可逆退休时间选择来调整劳动时间框架下的最优消费和投资问题,主要考虑风险资产派发红利的情形.运用随机控制方法,求解使得消费-闲暇预期效用最大化的最优策略.最优投资组合及最优退休时刻表明,代理人在为提前退休积累财富的同时,也能最佳享受消费和闲暇所带来的快乐.     

Consumption-Investment Problem with Subsistence Consumption,Bankruptcy, and Random Market Coefficients

We consider a general continuous-time finite-horizon single-agent consumption and portfolio decision problem with subsistence consumption and value of bankruptcy. Our analysis allows for random market coefficients and general continuously differentiable concave utility functions. We study the time of bankruptcy as a problem of optimal stopping, and succeed in obtaining explicit formulas for the optimal consumption and wealth processes in terms of the optimal bankruptcy time. This paper extends the results of Karatzas, Lehoczky, and Shreve (Ref. 1) on the maximization of expected utility from consumption in a financial market with random coefficients by incorporating subsistence consumption and bankruptcy. It also addresses the random coefficients and finite-horizon version of the problem treated by Sethi, Taksar, and Presman (Ref. 2). The mathematical tools used in our analysis are optimal stopping, stochastic control, martingale theory, and Girsanov change of measure.     

Prophet regions and sharp inequalities for pth absolute moments of martingales

Exact comparisons are made relating E|Y₀|^p, E|Y_n−1|^p, and E(max_j≤n−1 |Y_j|^p), valid for all martingales Y₀,…,Y_n−1, for each p ≥ 1. Specifically, for p > 1, the set of ordered triples {(x, y, z) : X = E|Y₀|^p, Y = E |Y_n−1|^p, and Z = E(max_j≤n−1 |Y_j|^p) for some martingale Y₀,…,Y_n−1} is precisely the set {(x, y, z) : 0≤x≤y≤z≤Ψ_n,p(x, y)}, where Ψ_n,p(x, y) = xψ_n,p(y/x) if x > 0, and = a_n−1,py if x = 0; here ψ_n,p is a specific recursively defined function. The result yields families of sharp inequalities, such as E(max_j≤n−1 |Y_j|^p) + ψ_n,p^*(a) E |Y₀|^p ≤ aE |Y_n−1|^p, valid for all martingales Y₀,…,Y_n−1, where ψ_n,p^* is the concave conjugate function of ψ_n,p. Both the finite sequence and infinite sequence cases are developed. Proofs utilize moment theory, induction, conjugate function theory, and functional equation analysis.     

Activity periods of an infinite server queue and performance of certain heavy tailed fluid queues

A fluid queue with ON periods arriving according to a Poisson process and having a long-tailed distribution has long range dependence. As a result, its performance deteriorates. The extent of this performance deterioration depends on a quantity determined by the average values of the system parameters. In the case when the the performance deterioration is the most extreme, we quantify it by studying the time until the amount of work in the system causes an overflow of a large buffer. This turns out to be strongly related to the tail behavior of the increase in the buffer content during a busy period of the M/G/∞ queue feeding the buffer. A large deviation approach provides a powerful method of studying such tail behavior. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Large deviations: An introduction to 2007 Abel prize

2007 Abel prize has been awarded to S R S Varadhan for creating a unified theory of large deviations. We attempt to give a flavour of this branch of probability theory, highlighting the role of Varadhan.     

Start‐up demonstration tests: models,methods and applications,with some unifications

Start‐up demonstration tests were first discussed in the quality/reliability literature about three decades ago. Since then, many variations of these tests have been introduced, and the corresponding distributional characteristics and inferential methods have also been studied. All these developments, based on independent and identically distributed binary trials, have been further generalized to some other forms of trials such as Markov‐dependent trials, exchangeable trials and multistate trials. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive review of all these results and highlight some unifications of the results. We also describe a general estimation method and then present several numerical examples to illustrate some of the models and methods described here. Finally, a number of open issues in this area of research are pointed out. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi-mode resource availability cost problem with recruitment and release dates for resources

This paper investigates the multi-mode resource availability cost problem with recruitment and release dates for resources. This problem is a more realistic model and extended case of the resource availability cost problem. The project contains activities interrelated by finish–start precedence relations with zero time lags, which require a set of renewable resources. First, a mixed integer programming formulation is proposed for the problem. Then, simulated annealing (SA) algorithm is proposed to obtain a satisfying solution for this NP-hard problem. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated through comprehensive experimentation based on 300 test problems. The results are analyzed and discussed.