Dynamical analysis of public health education on HIV/AIDS transmission

An Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immuno‐Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic model for sexual transmission with asymptomatic and symptomatic phase is proposed as a system of differential equations. The threshold and steady state for the model are determined and stabilities of disease free steady state is investigated. We use the model and study the effect of public health education on the spread of HIV/AIDS as a single‐strategy in HIV prevention. The education, including basic reproduction number for the model with public health education, is compared with the basic reproduction number for the HIV/AIDS in the absence of public health education. By comparing these two values, influence of public health education appears. According to property of , threshold proportion of educated adolescents, education rate for susceptible individuals and education efficacy is obtained. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global stability for an HIV/AIDS epidemic model with different latent stages and treatment

An HIV/AIDS epidemic model with different latent stages and treatment is constructed. The model allows for the latent individuals to have the slow and fast latent compartments. Mathematical analyses establish that the global dynamics of the spread of the HIV infectious disease are determined by the basic reproduction number under some conditions. If R₀ < 1, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and if R₀ > 1, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable for a special case. Some numerical simulations are also carried out to confirm the analytical results.     

Modeling sexual transmission of HIV/AIDS in Jiangsu province,China

HIV transmission by sexual activities exhibits a substantial increase and has become a primary transmission mode in China recently. A mathematical model is formulated so as to identify the key processes and parameters that could explain the quick increase in the proportion of heterosexual transmission and further to assist in suggesting control measures urgently. On the basis of surveillance data on a number of people living with HIV/AIDS in Jiangsu province, we parameterize the model and estimate the reproduction number by using the least squares method. The basic reproduction number was estimated to be R₀ = 3.52 for the therapy scenario of heterosexual transmission. The model predicts that the epidemic will peak in 2020. New infections are sensitive to the transmission coefficient, dependent on condom use rate, and the risky activities during the early period, whereas are sensitive to the recruitment rate in the late period of the transmission respectively. Antiviral therapy can either increase or decrease the new infections depending on both the extended life span of treated individuals and the infectiousness of the treated individuals. Hence, effective control measures during different transmission periods can be suggested, and antiretroviral therapy is a contentious issue for disease control. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global dynamics of a pine wilt disease transmission model with nonlinear incidence rates

In this study, we investigate a pine wilt transmission model with nonlinear incidence rates. The stability of the system is analyzed for disease-free and endemic equilibria. It is proved that the global dynamics are completely by the basic reproduction number _R0$R_0$. If _R0$R_0$ is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and in such a case, the endemic equilibrium does not exist. If _R0$R_0$ is greater than one, the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.     

Effect of a preventive vaccine on the dynamics of HIV transmission

A deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of HIV infection in the presence of a preventive vaccine is considered. Although the equilibria of the model could not be expressed in closed form, their existence and threshold conditions for their stability are theoretically investigated. It is shown that the disease-free equilibrium is locally–asymptotically stable if the basic reproductive number (thus, HIV disease can be eradicated from the community) and unstable if (leading to the persistence of HIV within the community). A robust, positivity-preserving, non-standard finite-difference method is constructed and used to solve the model equations. In addition to showing that the anti-HIV vaccine coverage level and the vaccine-induced protection are critically important in reducing the threshold quantity , our study predicts the minimum threshold values of vaccine coverage and efficacy levels needed to eradicate HIV from the community.     

Stability analysis of an HIV/AIDS epidemic model with treatment

An HIV/AIDS epidemic model with treatment is investigated. The model allows for some infected individuals to move from the symptomatic phase to the asymptomatic phase by all sorts of treatment methods. We first establish the ODE treatment model with two infective stages. Mathematical analyses establish that the global dynamics of the spread of the HIV infectious disease are completely determined by the basic reproduction number _ℜ0${\Re }_0$. If _ℜ0≤1${\Re }_0\le 1$, the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable, whereas the unique infected equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if _ℜ0>1${\Re }_0>1$. Then, we introduce a discrete time delay to the model to describe the time from the start of treatment in the symptomatic stage until treatment effects become visible. The effect of the time delay on the stability of the endemically infected equilibrium is investigated. Moreover, the delay model exhibits Hopf bifurcations by using the delay as a bifurcation parameter. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the results.     

Spatial-temporal risk index and transmission of a nonlocal dengue model

The nonlocal incidence and free boundaries are introduced into a classic SIR-SI model describing the transmission dynamics of dengue fever, where the nonlocal incidence allows for interactions of susceptible population at a given location with infected mosquitoes in the whole area, and free boundaries represent the expanding front of the area contaminated by dengue virus. We derive a spatial–temporal risk index in terms of the basic reproduction number, which depends on the nonlocal incidence and time variable. More importantly, we explore the relationships between different model variants regarding these risk indices. We additionally find sufficient conditions to ensure the vanishing and spreading of dengue fever, and demonstrate, for a special case, the asymptotic behavior of its solution when spreading occurs. Finally, we carry out numerical simulations to demonstrate our analytical findings and further provide their epidemiological explanations.     

Transmission dynamics and the control of hepatitis B in China: a population dynamics view

Though the prevalence of hepatitis B began to decline for the first time in 2010, it remains unclear whether this downward trend is permanent and the disease will be eradicated in mainland China under the current measures. Because a large number of hepatitis B virus (HBV) carriers and unknown HBV infections is characteristic of HBV infections in China, a mathematical model was designed and fitted to the reported hepatitis B data. The estimated basic reproduction number is 1.2861 (95\% confidence interval (CI) 1.2386-1.3302), which remains greater than one. Thus, the decline in 2010 may be part of the temporary benefits of public policy measures and should not be interpreted as indicative of successful intervention, although interventions do provide some benefits. To assess the effects of various interventions, the global uncertainty and sensitivity analyses revealed that the contribution of carriers is always greater than that of acute infections, and the prevalence of hepatitis B in China may be primarily a result of transmission by unknown patients. Therefore, strategies for controlling the HBV endemic, which target known patients, are unlikely to be highly effective. Additionally, three feasible strategies are proposed, although the benefits of these strategies may change radically over time.     

Global results for an HIV/AIDS model with multiple susceptible classes and nonlinear incidence

In this paper, an HIV/AIDS epidemic model is proposed in which there are two susceptible classes. Two types of general nonlinear incidence functions are employed to depict the scenarios of infection among cautious and incautious individuals. Qualitative analyses are performed, in terms of the basic reproduction number $\R_0$, to gain the global dynamics of the model: the disease-free equilibrium is of global asymptotic stability when $\R_0\leq 1$; a unique endemic equilibrium exists and globally asymptotically stable $\R_0> 1$. The introduction of cautious susceptible and the resulting multiple transmission functions has positive effect on HIV/AIDS prevalence. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate and extend the obtained analytical results.     

Mathematical analysis of the dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in the Sudan

In this paper we develop a mathematical model to study the dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in the Sudan. To develop this model we consider the dynamics of the disease between three different populations, human, reservoir and vector populations. The model is analyzed at equilibrium and the stability of the equilibria is analyzed. The basic reproduction number is derived, and the threshold conditions for disease elimination established. Results show that the disease can be eliminated under certain conditions. Simulations of the model show that human treatment helps in disease control, and its synergy with vector control will more likely result in the elimination of the disease.     

The effect of vaccines on backward bifurcation in a fractional order HIV model

In this paper, a homogeneous-mixing population fractional model for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission, which incorporates anti-HIV preventive vaccines, is proposed. The dynamics of the model indicate that the basic reproduction number being the unity is a strict threshold for disease eradication when there is no vaccine. However, it has been shown that when the efficacy or dosage of vaccines is low, the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium point (DFE) coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium point (EE) when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Therefore, driving the basic reproduction number below the unity is not enough to eradicate the disease. A new critical value at the turning point should be deduced as a new threshold of disease eradication. We have generalized the integer LaSalle invariant set theorem into fractional system and given some sufficient conditions for the disease-free equilibrium point being globally asymptotical stability. Mathematical results in this paper suggest that improving the efficiency and dosage of vaccines are all valid methods for the control of disease.     

A discrete epidemic model for SARS transmission and control in China

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a rapidly spreading infectious disease which was transmitted in late 2002 and early 2003 to more than 28 countries through the medium of international travel. The evolution and spread of SARS has resulted in an international effort coordinated by the World Health Organization (WHO).

We have formulated a discrete mathematical model to investigate the transmission of SARS and determined the basic reproductive number for this model to use as a threshold to determine the asymptotic behavior of the model. The dependence of the basic reproductive number on epidemic parameters has been studied. The parameters of the model have been estimated on the basis of statistical data and numerical simulations have been carried out to describe the transmission process for SARS in China. The simulation results matches the statistical data well and indicate that early quarantine and a high quarantine rate are crucial to the control of SARS.     

Mathematical model for assessing the impact of vaccination and treatment on measles transmission dynamics

A deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of measles in a population with fraction of vaccinated individuals is designed and rigorously analyzed. The model with standard incidence exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease‐free equilibrium coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. This phenomenon can be removed if either measles vaccine is assumed to be perfect or disease related mortality rates are negligible. In the latter case, the disease‐free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Furthermore, the model has a unique endemic equilibrium whenever the reproduction threshold exceeds unity. This equilibrium is shown, using a nonlinear Lyapunov function of Goh‐Volterra type, to be globally asymptotically stable for a special case.     

Global properties of a general dynamic model for animal diseases: A case study of brucellosis and tuberculosis transmission

Animal diseases such as brucellosis and tuberculosis can be transmitted through an environmentally mediated mechanism, but the topics of most modeling work are based on infectious contact and direct transmission, which leads to the limited understanding of the transmission dynamics of these diseases. In this paper, we propose a new deterministic model which incorporates general incidences, various stages of infection and a general shedding rate of the pathogen to analyze the dynamics of these diseases. Under the biologically motivated assumptions, we derive the basic reproduction number _R0$R_0$, show the uniqueness of the endemic equilibrium, and prove the global asymptotically stability of the equilibria. Some specific examples are used to illustrate the utilization of our results. In addition, we elaborate the epidemiological significance of these results, which are very important for the prevention and control of animal diseases.     

Modeling the Transmission of West Nile Virus with {\it Wolbachia} in a Heterogeneous Environment

{\it Wolbachia} are maternally transmitted endosymbiotic bacteria. To investigate the effect of {\it Wolbachia} on the spreading and vanishing of West Nile virus, we construct a reaction-diffusion model associated with the {\it Wolbachia} parameter in a heterogeneous environment, which has nonlinear infectious disease parameters. Based on the spectral radius of next infection operator and the related eigenvalue problem, we present a corresponding explicit expression describing the basic reproduction number. Furthermore, utilizing this number, we not only give out the stability of disease-free equilibrium, but also analyze the uniqueness and globally asymptotic behavior of endemic equilibrium. Our theoretical results and numerical simulations indicate that only if {\it Wolbachia} reach a certain magnitude in mosquitoes, it can be effective in the control of West Nile virus.     

A scale‐free network model for HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in China

Objective: The study aimed to analyze sexual networks and sex role preference as factors of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China. Methods: We have developed a new scale‐free network model with a sex role preference framework to study HIV transmission among MSM. We have studied the influence of different sexual networks and the effect of different proportion of sex role preference upon HIV transmission. The results are that the average ones drawn from the scenarios have been simulated for more than 30 times. Results: Compared with the traditional mathematical model, the sexual networks provide a different prediction of the HIV transmission in the next 30 years. Without any intervention, the proportion of HIV carriers will descend after some time. Conclusions: There is significant associations among network characteristics, sex role preference, and HIV infection. Although network‐based intervention is efficient in reducing HIV transmission among MSM, there are only few studies of the characteristics of sexual network, and such gaps deserve more attention and exploration. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.