Absolute binding free energies for the SAMPL6 cucurbit[8]uril host–guest challenge via the AMOEBA polarizable force field

As part of the SAMPL6 host–guest blind challenge, the AMOEBA force field was applied to calculate the absolute binding free energy for a cucurbit[8]uril host complexed with 14 diverse guests, ranging from small, rigid structures to drug molecules. The AMOEBA results from the initial submission prompted an investigation into aspects of the methodology and parameterization employed. Lessons learned from the blind challenge include: a double annihilation scheme (electrostatics and van der Waals) is needed to obtain proper sampling of guest conformations, annihilation of key torsion parameters of the guest are recommended for flexible guests, and a more thorough analysis of torsion parameters is warranted. When put in to practice with the AMOEBA model, the lessons learned improved the MUE from 2.63 to 1.20 kcal/mol and the RMSE from 3.62 to 1.68 kcal/mol, respectively. Overall, the AMOEBA protocol for determining absolute binding free energies benefitted from participation in the SAMPL6 host–guest blind challenge and the results suggest the implementation of the methodology in future host–guest calculations.     

Overview of the SAMPL6 host–guest binding affinity prediction challenge

Accurately predicting the binding affinities of small organic molecules to biological macromolecules can greatly accelerate drug discovery by reducing the number of compounds that must be synthesized to realize desired potency and selectivity goals. Unfortunately, the process of assessing the accuracy of current computational approaches to affinity prediction against binding data to biological macromolecules is frustrated by several challenges, such as slow conformational dynamics, multiple titratable groups, and the lack of high-quality blinded datasets. Over the last several SAMPL blind challenge exercises, host–guest systems have emerged as a practical and effective way to circumvent these challenges in assessing the predictive performance of current-generation quantitative modeling tools, while still providing systems capable of possessing tight binding affinities. Here, we present an overview of the SAMPL6 host–guest binding affinity prediction challenge, which featured three supramolecular hosts: octa-acid (OA), the closely related tetra-endo-methyl-octa-acid (TEMOA), and cucurbit[8]uril (CB8), along with 21 small organic guest molecules. A total of 119 entries were received from ten participating groups employing a variety of methods that spanned from electronic structure and movable type calculations in implicit solvent to alchemical and potential of mean force strategies using empirical force fields with explicit solvent models. While empirical models tended to obtain better performance than first-principle methods, it was not possible to identify a single approach that consistently provided superior results across all host–guest systems and statistical metrics. Moreover, the accuracy of the methodologies generally displayed a substantial dependence on the system considered, emphasizing the need for host diversity in blind evaluations. Several entries exploited previous experimental measurements of similar host–guest systems in an effort to improve their physical-based predictions via some manner of rudimentary machine learning; while this strategy succeeded in reducing systematic errors, it did not correspond to an improvement in statistical correlation. Comparison to previous rounds of the host–guest binding free energy challenge highlights an overall improvement in the correlation obtained by the affinity predictions for OA and TEMOA systems, but a surprising lack of improvement regarding root mean square error over the past several challenge rounds. The data suggests that further refinement of force field parameters, as well as improved treatment of chemical effects (e.g., buffer salt conditions, protonation states), may be required to further enhance predictive accuracy.     

Blind prediction of host–guest binding affinities: a new SAMPL3 challenge

The computational prediction of protein-ligand binding affinities is of central interest in early-stage drug-discovery, and there is a widely recognized need for improved methods. Low molecular weight receptors and their ligands--i.e., host-guest systems--represent valuable test-beds for such affinity prediction methods, because their small size makes for fast calculations and relatively facile numerical convergence. The SAMPL3 community exercise included the first ever blind prediction challenge for host-guest binding affinities, through the incorporation of 11 new host-guest complexes. Ten participating research groups addressed this challenge with a variety of approaches. Statistical assessment indicates that, although most methods performed well at predicting some general trends in binding affinity, overall accuracy was not high, as all the methods suffered from either poor correlation or high RMS errors or both. There was no clear advantage in using explicit versus implicit solvent models, any particular force field, or any particular approach to conformational sampling. In a few cases, predictions using very similar energy models but different sampling and/or free-energy methods resulted in significantly different results. The protonation states of one host and some guest molecules emerged as key uncertainties beyond the choice of computational approach. The present results have implications for methods development and future blind prediction exercises.     

Binding free energies in the SAMPL6 octa-acid host–guest challenge calculated with MM and QM methods

We have estimated free energies for the binding of eight carboxylate ligands to two variants of the octa-acid deep-cavity host in the SAMPL6 blind-test challenge (with or without endo methyl groups on the four upper-rim benzoate groups, OAM and OAH, respectively). We employed free-energy perturbation (FEP) for relative binding energies at the molecular mechanics (MM) and the combined quantum mechanical (QM) and MM (QM/MM) levels, the latter obtained with the reference-potential approach with QM/MM sampling for the MM → QM/MM FEP. The semiempirical QM method PM6-DH+ was employed for the ligand in the latter calculations. Moreover, binding free energies were also estimated from QM/MM optimised structures, combined with COSMO-RS estimates of the solvation energy and thermostatistical corrections from MM frequencies. They were performed at the PM6-DH+ level of theory with the full host and guest molecule in the QM system (and also four water molecules in the geometry optimisations) for 10–20 snapshots from molecular dynamics simulations of the complex. Finally, the structure with the lowest free energy was recalculated using the dispersion-corrected density-functional theory method TPSS-D3, for both the structure and the energy. The two FEP approaches gave similar results (PM6-DH+/MM slightly better for OAM), which were among the five submissions with the best performance in the challenge and gave the best results without any fit to data from the SAMPL5 challenge, with mean absolute deviations (MAD) of 2.4–5.2 kJ/mol and a correlation coefficient (R²) of 0.77–0.93. This is the first time QM/MM approaches give binding free energies that are competitive to those obtained with MM for the octa-acid host. The QM/MM-optimised structures gave somewhat worse performance (MAD?=?3–8 kJ/mol and R²?=?0.1–0.9), but the results were improved compared to previous studies of this system with similar methods.     

Energy–entropy method using multiscale cell correlation to calculate binding free energies in the SAMPL8 host–guest challenge

Free energy drives a wide range of molecular processes such as solvation, binding, chemical reactions and conformational change. Given the central importance of binding, a wide range of methods exist to calculate it, whether based on scoring functions, machine-learning, classical or electronic structure methods, alchemy, or explicit evaluation of energy and entropy. Here we present a new energy–entropy (EE) method to calculate the host–guest binding free energy directly from molecular dynamics (MD) simulation. Entropy is evaluated using Multiscale Cell Correlation (MCC) which uses force and torque covariance and contacts at two different length scales. The method is tested on a series of seven host–guest complexes in the SAMPL8 (Statistical Assessment of the Modeling of Proteins and Ligands) “Drugs of Abuse” Blind Challenge. The EE-MCC binding free energies are found to agree with experiment with an average error of 0.9 kcal mol^?1. MCC makes clear the origin of the entropy changes, showing that the large loss of positional, orientational, and to a lesser extent conformational entropy of each binding guest is compensated for by a gain in orientational entropy of water released to bulk, combined with smaller decreases in vibrational entropy of the host, guest and contacting water.

     

Prediction of CB[8] host–guest binding free energies in SAMPL6 using the double-decoupling method

This study reports the results of binding free energy calculations for CB[8] host–guest systems in the SAMPL6 blind challenge (receipt ID 3z83m). Force-field parameters were developed specific for each of host and guest molecules to improve configurational sampling. We used quantum mechanical (QM) implicit solvent calculations and QM force matching to determine non-bonded (partial atomic charges) and bonded terms, respectively. Free energy calculations were carried out using the double-decoupling method (DDM) combined with Hamiltonian replica exchange method (HREM) and Bennett acceptance ratio (BAR) method. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the predicted values using DDM with respect to the experimental results was 4.32 kcal/mol. The coefficient of determination (R²) and Kendall rank coefficient (τ) were 0.49 and 0.52, respectively, highest of all submissions. In addition, these were compared to the results obtained by umbrella sampling (US) and weighted histogram analysis method (WHAM). Overall, DDM achieved a higher prediction accuracy than the US method. Results are discussed in terms of parameterization and free energy simulations.     

Absolute binding free energy calculations of CBClip host–guest systems in the SAMPL5 blind challenge

Herein, we report the absolute binding free energy calculations of CBClip complexes in the SAMPL5 blind challenge. Initial conformations of CBClip complexes were obtained using docking and molecular dynamics simulations. Free energy calculations were performed using thermodynamic integration (TI) with soft-core potentials and Bennett’s acceptance ratio (BAR) method based on a serial insertion scheme. We compared the results obtained with TI simulations with soft-core potentials and Hamiltonian replica exchange simulations with the serial insertion method combined with the BAR method. The results show that the difference between the two methods can be mainly attributed to the van der Waals free energies, suggesting that either the simulations used for TI or the simulations used for BAR, or both are not fully converged and the two sets of simulations may have sampled difference phase space regions. The penalty scores of force field parameters of the 10 guest molecules provided by CHARMM Generalized Force Field can be an indicator of the accuracy of binding free energy calculations. Among our submissions, the combination of docking and TI performed best, which yielded the root mean square deviation of 2.94 kcal/mol and an average unsigned error of 3.41 kcal/mol for the ten guest molecules. These values were best overall among all participants. However, our submissions had little correlation with experiments.     

Resolving the problem of trapped water in binding cavities: prediction of host–guest binding free energies in the SAMPL5 challenge by funnel metadynamics

The funnel metadynamics method enables rigorous calculation of the potential of mean force along an arbitrary binding path and thereby evaluation of the absolute binding free energy. A problem of such physical paths is that the mechanism characterizing the binding process is not always obvious. In particular, it might involve reorganization of the solvent in the binding site, which is not easily captured with a few geometrically defined collective variables that can be used for biasing. In this paper, we propose and test a simple method to resolve this trapped-water problem by dividing the process into an artificial host-desolvation step and an actual binding step. We show that, under certain circumstances, the contribution from the desolvation step can be calculated without introducing further statistical errors. We apply the method to the problem of predicting host–guest binding free energies in the SAMPL5 blind challenge, using two octa-acid hosts and six guest molecules. For one of the hosts, well-converged results are obtained and the prediction of relative binding free energies is the best among all the SAMPL5 submissions. For the other host, which has a narrower binding pocket, the statistical uncertainties are slightly higher; longer simulations would therefore be needed to obtain conclusive results.     

SAMPL6 host–guest binding affinities and binding poses from spherical-coordinates-biased simulations

Journal of Computer-Aided Molecular Design - Host–guest binding is a challenging problem in computer simulation. The prediction of binding affinities between hosts and guests is an important...     

On the fly estimation of host–guest binding free energies using the movable type method: participation in the SAMPL5 blind challenge

We review our performance in the SAMPL5 challenge for predicting host–guest binding affinities using the movable type (MT) method. The challenge included three hosts, acyclic Cucurbit[2]uril and two octa-acids with and without methylation at the entrance to their binding cavities. Each host was associated with 6–10 guest molecules. The MT method extrapolates local energy landscapes around particular molecular states and estimates the free energy by Monte Carlo integration over these landscapes. Two blind submissions pairing MT with variants of the KECSA potential function yielded mean unsigned errors of 1.26 and 1.53 kcal/mol for the non-methylated octa-acid, 2.83 and 3.06 kcal/mol for the methylated octa-acid, and 2.77 and 3.36 kcal/mol for Cucurbit[2]uril host. While our results are in reasonable agreement with experiment, we focused on particular cases in which our estimates gave incorrect results, particularly with regard to association between the octa-acids and an adamantane derivative. Working on the hypothesis that differential solvation effects play a role in effecting computed binding affinities for the parent octa-acid and the methylated octa-acid and that the ligands bind inside the pockets (rather than on the surface) we devised a new solvent accessible surface area term to better quantify solvation energy contributions in MT based studies. To further explore this issue a, molecular dynamics potential of mean force (PMF) study indicates that, as found by our docking calculations, the stable binding mode for this ligand is inside (rather than surface bound) the octa-acid cavity whether the entrance is methylated or not. The PMF studies also obtained the correct order for the methylation-induced change in binding affinities and associated the difference, to a large extent to differential solvation effects. Overall, the SAMPL5 challenge yielded in improvements our solvation modeling and also demonstrated the need for thorough validation of input data integrity prior to any computational analysis.     

SAMPL6 host–guest blind predictions using a non equilibrium alchemical approach

In this paper, we compute, by means of a non equilibrium alchemical technique, called fast switching double annihilation methods (FSDAM), the absolute standard dissociation free energies of the the octa acids host–guest systems in the SAMPL6 challenge initiative. FSDAM is based on the production of canonical configurations of the bound and unbound states via enhanced sampling and on the subsequent generation of hundreds of fast non-equilibrium ligand annihilation trajectories. The annihilation free energies of the ligand when bound to the receptor and in bulk solvent are obtained from the collection of work values using an estimate based on the Crooks theorem for driven non equilibrium processes. The FSDAM blind prediction, relying on the normality assumption for the annihilation work distributions, ranked fairly well among the submitted blind predictions that were not adjusted with a linear corrections obtained from retrospective data on similar host guest systems. Improved results for FSDAM can be obtained by post-processing the work data assuming mixtures of normal components.     

The SAMPL4 host–guest blind prediction challenge: an overview

Prospective validation of methods for computing binding affinities can help assess their predictive power and thus set reasonable expectations for their performance in drug design applications. Supramolecular host–guest systems are excellent model systems for testing such affinity prediction methods, because their small size and limited conformational flexibility, relative to proteins, allows higher throughput and better numerical convergence. The SAMPL4 prediction challenge therefore included a series of host–guest systems, based on two hosts, cucurbit[7]uril and octa-acid. Binding affinities in aqueous solution were measured experimentally for a total of 23 guest molecules. Participants submitted 35 sets of computational predictions for these host–guest systems, based on methods ranging from simple docking, to extensive free energy simulations, to quantum mechanical calculations. Over half of the predictions provided better correlations with experiment than two simple null models, but most methods underperformed the null models in terms of root mean squared error and linear regression slope. Interestingly, the overall performance across all SAMPL4 submissions was similar to that for the prior SAMPL3 host–guest challenge, although the experimentalists took steps to simplify the current challenge. While some methods performed fairly consistently across both hosts, no single approach emerged as consistent top performer, and the nonsystematic nature of the various submissions made it impossible to draw definitive conclusions regarding the best choices of energy models or sampling algorithms. Salt effects emerged as an issue in the calculation of absolute binding affinities of cucurbit[7]uril-guest systems, but were not expected to affect the relative affinities significantly. Useful directions for future rounds of the challenge might involve encouraging participants to carry out some calculations that replicate each others’ studies, and to systematically explore parameter options.     

The SAMPL5 host–guest challenge: computing binding free energies and enthalpies from explicit solvent simulations by the attach-pull-release (APR) method

The absolute binding free energies and binding enthalpies of twelve host–guest systems in the SAMPL5 blind challenge were computed using our attach-pull-release (APR) approach. This method has previously shown good correlations between experimental and calculated binding data in retrospective studies of cucurbit[7]uril (CB7) and β-cyclodextrin (βCD) systems. In the present work, the computed binding free energies for host octa acid (OA or OAH) and tetra-endo-methyl octa-acid (TEMOA or OAMe) with guests are in good agreement with prospective experimental data, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.8 and root-mean-squared error of 1.7 kcal/mol using the TIP3P water model. The binding enthalpy calculations achieve moderate correlations, with R² of 0.5 and RMSE of 2.5 kcal/mol, for TIP3P water. Calculations using the newly developed OPC water model also show good performance. Furthermore, the present calculations semi-quantitatively capture the experimental trend of enthalpy-entropy compensation observed, and successfully predict guests with the strongest and weakest binding affinity. The most populated binding poses of all twelve systems, based on clustering analysis of 750 ns molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories, were extracted and analyzed. Computational methods using MD simulations and explicit solvent models in a rigorous statistical thermodynamic framework, like APR, can generate reasonable predictions of binding thermodynamics. Especially with continuing improvement in simulation force fields, such methods hold the promise of making substantial contributions to hit identification and lead optimization in the drug discovery process.     

Free-energy perturbation and quantum mechanical study of SAMPL4 octa-acid host–guest binding energies

We have estimated free energies for the binding of nine cyclic carboxylate guest molecules to the octa-acid host in the SAMPL4 blind-test challenge with four different approaches. First, we used standard free-energy perturbation calculations of relative binding affinities, performed at the molecular-mechanics (MM) level with TIP3P waters, the GAFF force field, and two different sets of charges for the host and the guest, obtained either with the restrained electrostatic potential or AM1-BCC methods. Both charge sets give good and nearly identical results, with a mean absolute deviation (MAD) of 4 kJ/mol and a correlation coefficient (R ²) of 0.8 compared to experimental results. Second, we tried to improve these predictions with 28,800 density-functional theory (DFT) calculations for selected snapshots and the non-Boltzmann Bennett acceptance-ratio method, but this led to much worse results, probably because of a too large difference between the MM and DFT potential-energy functions. Third, we tried to calculate absolute affinities using minimised DFT structures. This gave intermediate-quality results with MADs of 5–9 kJ/mol and R ² = 0.6–0.8, depending on how the structures were obtained. Finally, we tried to improve these results using local coupled-cluster calculations with single and double excitations, and non-iterative perturbative treatment of triple excitations (LCCSD(T0)), employing the polarisable multipole interactions with supermolecular pairs approach. Unfortunately, this only degraded the predictions, probably because of a mismatch between the solvation energies obtained at the DFT and LCCSD(T0) levels.     

Binding free energies in the SAMPL5 octa-acid host–guest challenge calculated with DFT-D3 and CCSD(T)

We have tried to calculate the free energy for the binding of six small ligands to two variants of the octa-acid deep cavitand host in the SAMPL5 blind challenge. We employed structures minimised with dispersion-corrected density-functional theory with small basis sets and energies were calculated using large basis sets. Solvation energies were calculated with continuum methods and thermostatistical corrections were obtained from frequencies calculated at the HF-3c level. Care was taken to minimise the effects of the flexibility of the host by keeping the complexes as symmetric and similar as possible. In some calculations, the large net charge of the host was reduced by removing the propionate and benzoate groups. In addition, the effect of a restricted molecular dynamics sampling of structures was tested. Finally, we tried to improve the energies by using the DLPNO–CCSD(T) approach. Unfortunately, results of quite poor quality were obtained, with no correlation to the experimental data, systematically too positive affinities (by ~50 kJ/mol) and a mean absolute error (after removal of the systematic error) of 11–16 kJ/mol. DLPNO–CCSD(T) did not improve the results, so the accuracy is not limited by the energy function. Instead, four likely sources of errors were identified: first, the minimised structures were often incorrect, owing to the omission of explicit solvent. They could be partly improved by performing the minimisations in a continuum solvent with four water molecules around the charged groups of the ligands. Second, some ligands could bind in several different conformations, requiring sampling of reasonable structures. Third, there is an indication the continuum-solvation model has problems to accurately describe the binding of both the negatively and positively charged guest molecules. Fourth, different methods to calculate the thermostatistical corrections gave results that differed by up to 30 kJ/mol and there is an indication that HF-3c overestimates the entropy term. In conclusion, it is a challenge to calculate binding affinities for this octa-acid system with quantum–mechanical methods.     

Prediction of SAMPL4 host–guest binding affinities using funnel metadynamics

Accurately predicting binding affinities between ligands and macromolecules has been a much sought-after goal. A tremendous amount of resources can be saved in the pharmaceutical industry through accurate binding-affinity prediction and hence correct decision-making for the drug discovery processes. Owing to the structural complexity of macromolecules, one of the issues in binding affinity prediction using molecular dynamics is the adequate sampling of the conformational space. Recently, the funnel metadynamics method (Limongelli et al. in Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110:6358, 2013) was developed to enhance the sampling of the ligand at the binding site as well as in the solvated state, and offer the possibility to predict the absolute binding free energy. We apply funnel metadynamics to predict host–guest binding affinities for the cucurbit[7]uril host as part of the SAMPL4 blind challenge. Using total simulation times of 300–400 ns per ligand, we show that the errors due to inadequate sampling are below 1 kcal/mol. However, despite the large investment in terms of computational time, the results compared to experiment are not better than a random guess. As we obtain differences of up to 11 kcal/mol when switching between two commonly used force fields (with automatically generated parameters), we strongly believe that in the pursuit of accurate binding free energies a more careful force-field parametrization is needed to address this type of system.     

Overview of the SAMPL5 host–guest challenge: Are we doing better?

The ability to computationally predict protein-small molecule binding affinities with high accuracy would accelerate drug discovery and reduce its cost by eliminating rounds of trial-and-error synthesis and experimental evaluation of candidate ligands. As academic and industrial groups work toward this capability, there is an ongoing need for datasets that can be used to rigorously test new computational methods. Although protein–ligand data are clearly important for this purpose, their size and complexity make it difficult to obtain well-converged results and to troubleshoot computational methods. Host–guest systems offer a valuable alternative class of test cases, as they exemplify noncovalent molecular recognition but are far smaller and simpler. As a consequence, host–guest systems have been part of the prior two rounds of SAMPL prediction exercises, and they also figure in the present SAMPL5 round. In addition to being blinded, and thus avoiding biases that may arise in retrospective studies, the SAMPL challenges have the merit of focusing multiple researchers on a common set of molecular systems, so that methods may be compared and ideas exchanged. The present paper provides an overview of the host–guest component of SAMPL5, which centers on three different hosts, two octa-acids and a glycoluril-based molecular clip, and two different sets of guest molecules, in aqueous solution. A range of methods were applied, including electronic structure calculations with implicit solvent models; methods that combine empirical force fields with implicit solvent models; and explicit solvent free energy simulations. The most reliable methods tend to fall in the latter class, consistent with results in prior SAMPL rounds, but the level of accuracy is still below that sought for reliable computer-aided drug design. Advances in force field accuracy, modeling of protonation equilibria, electronic structure methods, and solvent models, hold promise for future improvements.     

Detailed potential of mean force studies on host–guest systems from the SAMPL6 challenge

Accurately predicting receptor–ligand binding free energies is one of the holy grails of computational chemistry with many applications in chemistry and biology. Many successes have been reported, but issues relating to sampling and force field accuracy remain significant issues affecting our ability to reliably calculate binding free energies. In order to explore these issues in more detail we have examined a series of small host–guest complexes from the SAMPL6 blind challenge, namely octa-acids (OAs)–guest complexes and Curcurbit[8]uril (CB8)–guest complexes. Specifically, potential of mean force studies using umbrella sampling combined with the weighted histogram method were carried out on both systems with both known and unknown binding affinities. We find that using standard force fields and straightforward simulation protocols we are able to obtain satisfactory results, but that simply scaling our results allows us to significantly improve our predictive ability for the unknown test sets: the overall RMSD of the binding free energy versus experiment is reduced from 5.59 to 2.36 kcal/mol; for the CB8 test system, the RMSD goes from 8.04 to 3.51 kcal/mol, while for the OAs test system, the RSMD goes from 2.89 to 0.95 kcal/mol. The scaling approach was inspired by studies on structurally related known benchmark sets: by simply scaling, the RMSD was reduced from 6.23 to 1.19 kcal/mol and from 2.96 to 0.62 kcal/mol for the CB8 benchmark system and the OA benchmark system, respectively. We find this scaling procedure to correct absolute binding affinities to be highly effective especially when working across a “congeneric” series with similar charge states. It is less successful when applied to mixed ligands with varied charges and chemical characteristics, but improvement is still realized in the present case. This approach suggests that there are large systematic errors in absolute binding free energy calculations that can be straightforwardly accounted for using a scaling procedure. Random errors are still an issue, but near chemical accuracy can be obtained using the present strategy in select cases.     

Converging free energies of binding in cucurbit[7]uril and octa-acid host–guest systems from SAMPL4 using expanded ensemble simulations

Molecular containers such as cucurbit[7]uril (CB7) and the octa-acid (OA) host are ideal simplified model test systems for optimizing and analyzing methods for computing free energies of binding intended for use with biologically relevant protein–ligand complexes. To this end, we have performed initially blind free energy calculations to determine the free energies of binding for ligands of both the CB7 and OA hosts. A subset of the selected guest molecules were those included in the SAMPL4 prediction challenge. Using expanded ensemble simulations in the dimension of coupling host–guest intermolecular interactions, we are able to show that our estimates in most cases can be demonstrated to fully converge and that the errors in our estimates are due almost entirely to the assigned force field parameters and the choice of environmental conditions used to model experiment. We confirm the convergence through the use of alternative simulation methodologies and thermodynamic pathways, analyzing sampled conformations, and directly observing changes of the free energy with respect to simulation time. Our results demonstrate the benefits of enhanced sampling of multiple local free energy minima made possible by the use of expanded ensemble molecular dynamics and may indicate the presence of significant problems with current transferable force fields for organic molecules when used for calculating binding affinities, especially in non-protein chemistries.