删失截断情形下Weibull分布多变点模型的参数估计

通过添加缺失的寿命变量数据,得到了删失截断情形下Weibull分布多变点模型的完全数据似然函数,研究了变点位置参数和形状参数以及尺度参数的满条件分布.利用Gibbs抽样与Metropolis-Hastings算法相结合的MCMC方法得到了参数的Gibbs样本,把Gibbs样本的均值作为各参数的Bayes估计.详细介绍了MCMC方法的实施步骤.随机模拟试验的结果表明各参数Bayes估计的精度都较高.     

Analytic hypoellipticity in the presence of nonsymplectic characteristic points

Recently, N. Hanges proved that the operator

     

Stability in the presence of degeneracy and error estimation

Received February 10, 1997 / Revised version received June 6, 1998 Published online October 9, 1998     

Testing for multiple change points

In this paper we concentrate on testing for multiple changes in the mean of a series of independent random variables. Suggested method applies a maximum type test statistic. Our primary focus is on an effective calculation of critical values for very large sample sizes comprising (tens of) thousands of observations and a moderate to large number of segments. To that end, Monte Carlo simulations and a modified Bellman’s principle of optimality are used. It is shown that, indisputably, computer memory becomes a critical bottleneck in solving a problem of such a size. Thus, minimization of the memory requirements and appropriate order of calculations appear to be the keys to success. In addition, the formula that can be used to get approximate asymptotic critical values using the theory of exceedance probability of Gaussian fields over a high level is presented.     

Critical points for nondifferentiable functions in presence of splitting

A classical critical point theorem in presence of splitting established by Brézis-Nirenberg is extended to functionals which are the sum of a locally Lipschitz continuous term and of a convex, proper, lower semicontinuous function. The obtained result is then exploited to prove a multiplicity theorem for a family of elliptic variational-hemivariational eigenvalue problems.     

Higher order estimation at Lebesgue points

The symmetric derivative of a probability measure at a Lebesgue point can often be specified by an exact relation involving a regularity index. Knowledge of this index is of practical interest, for example to specify the local behavior of the measure under study and to evaluate bandwidths or number of neighbors to take into account in smoothing techniques. This index also determines local rates of convergence of estimators of particular points of curves and surfaces, like minima and maxima. In this paper, we consider the estimation of the d-dimensional regularity index. We introduce an estimator and derive the basic asymptotic results. Our estimator is inspired by an estimator proposed in Drees and Kaufmann (1998, Stochastic Processes and their Applications, 75, 149–172) in the context of extreme value statistics. Then, we show how (estimates of) the regularity index can be used to solve practical problems in nearest neighbor density estimation, such as removing bias or selecting the number of neighbors. Results of simulations are presented.     

Consistent multiple testing for change points

The change point problem for independent normal means is considered as a multiple testing problem. Two stepwise methods are considered. Namely, the binary segmentation method of Vostrikova (1981) [7] and the maximum residual down method of Cohen et al. (2009) [5]. Both of these methods are shown to be consistent. Consistent here means that as sample sizes tend to infinity, the probability of making an error (false rejection or false acceptance) tends to zero.     

Proportion estimation in ranked set sampling in the presence of tie information

Ranked set sampling (RSS) is a statistical technique that uses auxiliary ranking information of unmeasured sample units in an attempt to select a more representative sample that provides better estimation of population parameters than simple random sampling. However, the use of RSS can be hampered by the fact that a complete ranking of units in each set must be specified when implementing RSS. Recently, to allow ties declared as needed, Frey (Environ Ecol Stat 19(3):309–326, 2012) proposed a modification of RSS, which is to simply break ties at random so that a standard ranked set sample is obtained, and meanwhile record the tie structure for use in estimation. Under this RSS variation, several mean estimators were developed and their performance was compared via simulation, with focus on continuous outcome variables. We extend the work of Frey (2012) to binary outcomes and investigate three nonparametric and three likelihood-based proportion estimators (with/without utilizing tie information), among which four are directly extended from existing estimators and the other two are novel. Under different tie-generating mechanisms, we compare the performance of these estimators and draw conclusions based on both simulation and a data example about breast cancer prevalence. Suggestions are made about the choice of the proportion estimator in general.     

Asymptotics of orthonormal polynomials in the presence of a denumerable set of mass points

Let be a positive measure whose support is an interval plus a denumerable set of mass points which accumulate at the boundary points of only. Under the assumptions that the mass points satisfy Blaschke's condition and that the absolutely continuous part of satisfies Szegö's condition, asymptotics for the orthonormal polynomials on and off the support are given. So far asymptotics were only available if the set of mass points is finite.

     

On detection of change points using mean vectors

In this paper, the authors consider the problem of change points within the framework of model selection and propose a procedure for estimating the locations of change points when the number of change points is known. The strong consistency of this procedure is also established. The problem of detecting change points is discussed within the framework of the simultaneous test procedure. The case where the number of change points is unknown will be discussed in another paper.This project is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and by the Air Office of Scientific Research of the United States.     

Robust estimation of periodic autoregressive processes in the presence of additive outliers

This paper suggests a robust estimation procedure for the parameters of the periodic AR (PAR) models when the data contains additive outliers. The proposed robust methodology is an extension of the robust scale and covariance functions given in, respectively, Rousseeuw and Croux (1993) [28], and Ma and Genton (2000) [23] to accommodate periodicity. These periodic robust functions are used in the Yule-Walker equations to obtain robust parameter estimates. The asymptotic central limit theorems of the estimators are established, and an extensive Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to evaluate the performance of the robust methodology for periodic time series with finite sample sizes. The quarterly Fraser River data was used as an example of application of the proposed robust methodology. All the results presented here give strong motivation to use the methodology in practical situations in which periodically correlated time series contain additive outliers.     

Modelling by a planar map: Lyapunov-type numbers in the presence of spiral points

Lyapunov-type numbers are usually defined for diffeomorphisms with a smooth invariant manifold. We consider here the case of a planar diffeomorphism with an invariant curve that contains spiral points. The limits defining the Lyapunov-type numbers are shown to exist. Numerical results for the delayed logistic map illustrate the analysis.     

Rate optimal estimation with the integration method in the presence of many covariates

For multivariate regressors, integrating the Nadaraya–Watson regression smoother produces estimators of the lower-dimensional marginal components that are asymptotically normally distributed, at the optimal rate of convergence. Some heuristics, based on consistency of the pilot estimator, suggested that the estimator would not converge at the optimal rate of convergence in the presence of more than four covariates. This paper shows first that marginal integration with its internally normalized counterpart leads to rate-optimal estimators of the marginal components. We introduce the necessary modifications and give central limit theorems. Then, it is shown that the method apply also to more general models, in particular we discuss feasible estimation of partial linear models. The proofs reveal that the pilot estimator shall over-smooth the variables to be integrated, and, that the resulting estimator is itself a lower-dimensional regression smoother. Hence, finite sample properties of the estimator are comparable to those of low-dimensional nonparametric regression. Further advantages when starting with the internally normalized pilot estimator are its computational attractiveness and better performance (compared to its classical counterpart) when the covatiates are correlated and nonuniformly distributed. Simulation studies underline the excellent performance in comparison with so far known methods.     

Fourier transform methods for pathwise covariance estimation in the presence of jumps

We provide a new non-parametric Fourier procedure to estimate the trajectory of the instantaneous covariance process (from discrete observations of a multidimensional price process) in the presence of jumps extending the seminal work of Malliavin and Mancino (2002, 2009). Our approach relies on a modification of (classical) jump-robust estimators of integrated realized covariance to estimate the Fourier coefficients of the covariance trajectory. Using Fourier–Féjer inversion we reconstruct the path of the instantaneous covariance. We prove consistency and a central limit theorem (CLT) and in particular that the asymptotic estimator variance is smaller by a factor 2/3 in comparison to classical local estimators.