Simplified mean-variance portfolio optimisation

We propose a simplified approach to mean-variance portfolio problems by changing their parametrisation from trading strategies to final positions. This allows us to treat, under a very mild no-arbitrage-type assumption, a whole range of quadratic optimisation problems by simple mathematical tools in a unified and model-independent way. We provide explicit formulas for optimal positions and values, connections between the solutions to the different problems, two-fund separation results, and explicit expressions for indifference values.     

Optimal mean-variance portfolio selection

Assuming that the wealth process \(X^u\) is generated self-financially from the given initial wealth by holding its fraction u in a risky stock (whose price follows a geometric Brownian motion with drift \(\mu \in \mathbb {R}\) and volatility \(\sigma >0\)) and its remaining fraction \(1 -u\) in a riskless bond (whose price compounds exponentially with interest rate \(r \in \mathbb {R}\)), and letting \(\mathsf{P}_{t,x}\) denote a probability measure under which \(X^u\) takes value x at time t, we study the dynamic version of the nonlinear mean-variance optimal control problem

Open image in new window

where t runs from 0 to the given terminal time \(T>0\), the supremum is taken over admissible controls u, and \(c>0\) is a given constant. By employing the method of Lagrange multipliers we show that the nonlinear problem can be reduced to a family of linear problems. Solving the latter using a classic Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman approach we find that the optimal dynamic control is given by

$$\begin{aligned} u_*(t,x) = \frac{\delta }{2\; c\; \sigma }\; \frac{1}{x}\, e^{(\delta ^2-r)(T-t)} \end{aligned}$$

where \(\delta = (\mu -r)/\sigma \). The dynamic formulation of the problem and the method of solution are applied to the constrained problems of maximising/minimising the mean/variance subject to the upper/lower bound on the variance/mean from which the nonlinear problem above is obtained by optimising the Lagrangian itself.

     

Epsilon-dominating solutions in mean-variance portfolio analysis

In this paper the problem of finding the effcient set of portfolios, in a general constraint set, is replaced by finding a set of epsilon-dominating protfolios, the number of which is determined by the size of epsilon. Algorithms, and associated theory are given, together with some possible modifications.     

Markowitz’s mean-variance asset-liability management with regime switching: A continuous-time model

This paper considers an asset-liability management (ALM) problem under a continuous-time Markov regime-switching model. By adopting the techniques of [Zhou, X.Y., Yin, G., 2003. Markowitz’s mean-variance portfolio selection with regime switching: A continuous-time model. SIAM J. Control Optim. 42, 1466–1482], we investigate the feasibility, obtain the optimal strategy, delineate the efficient frontier, and establish the associated mutual fund theorem.     

A new method for mean-variance portfolio optimization with cardinality constraints

Several portfolio selection models take into account practical limitations on the number of assets to include and on their weights in the portfolio. We present here a study of the Limited Asset Markowitz (LAM) model, where the assets are limited with the introduction of quantity and cardinality constraints. We propose a completely new approach for solving the LAM model based on a reformulation as a Standard Quadratic Program, on a new lower bound that we establish, and on other recent theoretical and computational results for such problem. These results lead to an exact algorithm for solving the LAM model for small size problems. For larger problems, such algorithm can be relaxed to an efficient and accurate heuristic procedure that is able to find the optimal or the best-known solutions for problems based on some standard financial data sets that are used by several other authors. We also test our method on five new data sets involving real-world capital market indices from major stock markets. We compare our results with those of CPLEX and with those obtained with very recent heuristic approaches in order to illustrate the effectiveness of our method in terms of solution quality and of computation time. All our data sets and results are publicly available for use by other researchers.     

Timber harvest scheduling with price uncertainty using Markowitz portfolio optimization

Harvest scheduling models need to account for uncertain revenue predictions when minimizing risk of financial loss is an important management objective. In this paper, we present methods for estimating the means and covariances of stumpage prices and incorporating them in harvest scheduling models. We approached the estimation problem by fitting time-series models to loblolly pine sawtimber and pulpwood stumpage prices in Georgia, USA, and deriving formulas for means and covariances of price predictions. Statistical evidence supported integrated autoregressive models, which caused covariances of price predictions to increase with time. The means and covariances of price predictions were combined with timber yield and land value predictions to give exact formulas for the revenue means and covariances of timber management activities. Sawtimber regimes dominated pulpwood regimes by providing higher mean revenues across a wide range of revenue variances. Harvest scheduling results for a hypothetical forest of pine plantations showed that the forest plan that maximized mean income without concern for risk (expressed as the standard deviation of income) involved sawtimber production with a 35-year rotation age. Risk was reduced 30% with little effect on mean income by using shorter-rotation sawtimber regimes. Risk was reduced 80% by using a mix of short-rotation sawtimber and pulpwood regimes because pulpwood price was only weakly correlated with sawtimber price. The latter risk-reduction came at the expense of mean income, which was reduced by as much as 50%. The risks and compositions of optimal forest plans were extremely sensitive to assumptions about the range of future prices that were inherent in different prediction models. This sensitivity emphasizes the importance of carefully determining the decision makers beliefs about stumpage price behavior.     

A general approach to Bayesian portfolio optimization

We develop a general approach to portfolio optimization taking account of estimation risk and stylized facts of empirical finance. This is done within a Bayesian framework. The approximation of the posterior distribution of the unknown model parameters is based on a parallel tempering algorithm. The portfolio optimization is done using the first two moments of the predictive discrete asset return distribution. For illustration purposes we apply our method to empirical stock market data where daily asset log-returns are assumed to follow an orthogonal MGARCH process with t-distributed perturbations. Our results are compared with other portfolios suggested by popular optimization strategies.     

Fuzzy portfolio optimization a quadratic programming approach

The topic of this paper is as, the title shows, to introduce the formulation of fuzzy portfolio optimization problem as a convex quadratic programming approach and then give an acceptable solution to such problem. A numerical example included in the support of this paper for illustration.     

A stochastic programming approach for multi-period portfolio optimization

This paper extends previous work on the use of stochastic linear programming to solve life-cycle investment problems. We combine the feature of asset return predictability with practically relevant constraints arising in a life-cycle investment context. The objective is to maximize the expected utility of consumption over the lifetime and of bequest at the time of death of the investor. Asset returns and state variables follow a first-order vector auto-regression and the associated uncertainty is described by discrete scenario trees. To deal with the long time intervals involved in life-cycle problems we consider a few short-term decisions (to exploit any short-term return predictability), and incorporate a closed-form solution for the long, subsequent steady-state period to account for end effects.     

A moment matching approach to log-normal portfolio optimization

We consider the problem where a manager aims to minimize the probability of his portfolio return falling below a threshold while keeping the expected return no worse than a target, under the assumption that stock returns are Log-Normally distributed. This assumption, common in the finance literature for daily and weekly returns, creates computational difficulties because the distribution of the portfolio return is difficult to estimate precisely. We approximate it with a single Log-Normal random variable using the Fenton–Wilkinson method and investigate an iterative, data-driven approximation to the problem. We propose a two-stage solution approach, where the first stage requires solving a classic mean-variance optimization model and the second step involves solving an unconstrained nonlinear problem with a smooth objective function. We suggest an iterative calibration method to improve the accuracy of the method and test its performance against a Generalized Pareto Distribution approximation. We also extend our results to the design of basket options.     

A stochastic programming approach to multicriteria portfolio optimization

We study a stochastic programming approach to multicriteria multi-period portfolio optimization problem. We use a Single Index Model to estimate the returns of stocks from a market-representative index and a random walk model to generate scenarios on the possible values of the index return. We consider expected return, Conditional Value at Risk and liquidity as our criteria. With stocks from Istanbul Stock Exchange, we make computational studies for the two and three-criteria cases. We demonstrate the tradeoffs between criteria and show that treating these criteria simultaneously yields meaningful efficient solutions. We provide insights based on our experiments.     

A fuzzy goal programming approach to portfolio selection

Portfolio selection is a usual multiobjective problem. This paper will try to deal with the optimum portfolio for a private investor, taking into account three criteria: return, risk and liquidity. These objectives, in general, are not crisp from the point of view of the investor, so we will deal with them in fuzzy terms. The problem formulation is a goal programming (G.P.) one, where the goals and the constraints are fuzzy. We will apply a fuzzy G.P. approach to the above problem to obtain a solution. Then, we will offer the investor help in handling the results.     

Analytical relationships between metric and centrality measures of a network and its dual

The centrality and efficiency measures of a network G are strongly related to the respective measures on the dual G^? and the bipartite B(G) associated networks. We show some relationships between the Bonacich centralities c(G), c(G^?) and c(B(G)) and between the efficiencies E(G) and E(G^?) and we compute the behavior of these parameters in some examples.     

Robust portfolio optimization: a conic programming approach

The Markowitz Mean Variance model (MMV) and its variants are widely used for portfolio selection. The mean and covariance matrix used in the model originate from probability distributions that need to be determined empirically. It is well known that these parameters are notoriously difficult to estimate. In addition, the model is very sensitive to these parameter estimates. As a result, the performance and composition of MMV portfolios can vary significantly with the specification of the mean and covariance matrix. In order to address this issue we propose a one-period mean-variance model, where the mean and covariance matrix are only assumed to belong to an exogenously specified uncertainty set. The robust mean-variance portfolio selection problem is then written as a conic program that can be solved efficiently with standard solvers. Both second order cone program (SOCP) and semidefinite program (SDP) formulations are discussed. Using numerical experiments with real data we show that the portfolios generated by the proposed robust mean-variance model can be computed efficiently and are not as sensitive to input errors as the classical MMV??s portfolios.     

Default probabilities in a corporate bank portfolio: A logistic model approach

Analysis and management of credit risk has taken on an increased importance in recent years. New regulations force banks and other financial institutions to make a credible effort to chart and manage the risk associated with their client portfolio. Increased competition in the financial market has also improved the motivation of monitoring the risk/reward relationship on various clients. Modern risk measures such as Credit Risk Capital (CRC) and Risk Adjusted Return On Capital (RAROC) are now well established among banks. One problem in such risk frameworks is to find the expected loss (EL) of the bank portfolio. The EL is based on assumptions regarding the estimated default frequency (EDF) for each client or group of clients. Benchmark models for CRC calculations treat EDFs as exogenous and do not devote much attention to how they can be obtained. This article presents a method of estimating such rates for a retail bank portfolio. The analysis is based on a logistic regression model where financial variables as well as other firm characteristics affect the default probability.     

A polynomial optimization approach to constant rebalanced portfolio selection

We address the multi-period portfolio optimization problem with the constant rebalancing strategy. This problem is formulated as a polynomial optimization problem (POP) by using a mean-variance criterion. In order to solve the POPs of high degree, we develop a cutting-plane algorithm based on semidefinite programming. Our algorithm can solve problems that can not be handled by any of known polynomial optimization solvers.     

Tracking customer portfolio composition: A factor analysis approach

In this paper, we address the changing composition of a customer portfolio taking into account actions undertaken by the company to adapt its service offer to market conditions and/or technological innovations. We present a specific methodology to identify clusters of customers in different periods and then compare them over time. The classification process takes into account both qualitative and quantitative aspects of the consumption levels of the services or products offered by the company. The possibility of period‐to‐period variation in the customer portfolio and the service or product offer is also considered, in order to achieve a more realistic scenario. The core of the proposed methodology is related to the family of exploratory factorial and cluster techniques. The customers are classified by using a bicriterial clustering methodology based on ‘tandem’ analysis (multiple factor analysis+cluster analysis of the main factors). The bicriterial approach allows for a compromise between customers' consumption levels (a quantitative criterion) and their consumption/non‐consumption pattern (a qualitative criterion). The evolution of the customer portfolio composition is explored through multiple correspondence analysis. This technique allows visual comparison of the position of different clusters against time and the identification of key changes in customer consumption behavior. The methodology is tested on realistic customer portfolio scenarios for a major telecommunication company. We simulate various scenarios to show the strengths of our proposal. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Elasticity approach to portfolio optimization

We study investment problems in a continuous-time setting and conclude that the proper control variables are elasticities to the traded assets or, in the case of stochastic interest rates, (factor) durations. This formulation of a portfolio problem allows us to solve the problems in a kind of two-step procedure: First, by calculating the optimal elasticities and durations we determine the optimal wealth process and then we compute a portfolio process which tracks these elasticities and durations. Our findings are not only interesting in itself, but the approach also proves useful in many varied applications including portfolios with (path-dependent) options. An important application can be the solution of portfolio problems with defaultable bonds modelled by a firm value approach.     

International portfolio choice and political instability risk: A multi-objective approach

The benefits derived from international portfolio diversification into foreign nations (including the less developed countries) are well documented, yet this practice is discouraged due to market imperfections such as political instability. In practice, nations may be differentiated further by many aspects, such as border controls or political and social trends, which constrain private transactions and financial decisions. This paper attempts to examine (1) whether the home asset bias in a portfolio holding is associated with higher political instability risk, and (2) to what extent international diversification among stocks, in the presence of such risk, outperforms domestic stock portfolios. Using alternative instability risk proxies in the context of a discrete-time version of mean–variance framework, we corroborate the impact of this type of risk on international portfolio investment decisions.