Prediction of pesticide acute toxicity using two-dimensional chemical descriptors and target species classification

Previous modelling of the median lethal dose (oral rat LD₅₀) has indicated that local class-based models yield better correlations than global models. We evaluated the hypothesis that dividing the dataset by pesticidal mechanisms would improve prediction accuracy. A linear discriminant analysis (LDA) based-approach was utilized to assign indicators such as the pesticide target species, mode of action, or target species - mode of action combination. LDA models were able to predict these indicators with about 87% accuracy. Toxicity is predicted utilizing the QSAR model fit to chemicals with that indicator. Toxicity was also predicted using a global hierarchical clustering (HC) approach which divides data set into clusters based on molecular similarity. At a comparable prediction coverage (~94%), the global HC method yielded slightly higher prediction accuracy (r² = 0.50) than the LDA method (r² ~ 0.47). A single model fit to the entire training set yielded the poorest results (r² = 0.38), indicating that there is an advantage to clustering the dataset to predict acute toxicity. Finally, this study shows that whilst dividing the training set into subsets (i.e. clusters) improves prediction accuracy, it may not matter which method (expert based or purely machine learning) is used to divide the dataset into subsets.     

Qualitative and quantitative structure–activity relationship modelling for predicting blood-brain barrier permeability of structurally diverse chemicals

In this study, structure–activity relationship (SAR) models have been established for qualitative and quantitative prediction of the blood–brain barrier (BBB) permeability of chemicals. The structural diversity of the chemicals and nonlinear structure in the data were tested. The predictive and generalization ability of the developed SAR models were tested through internal and external validation procedures. In complete data, the QSAR models rendered ternary classification accuracy of >98.15%, while the quantitative SAR models yielded correlation (r²) of >0.926 between the measured and the predicted BBB permeability values with the mean squared error (MSE) <0.045. The proposed models were also applied to an external new in vitro data and yielded classification accuracy of >82.7% and r² > 0.905 (MSE < 0.019). The sensitivity analysis revealed that topological polar surface area (TPSA) has the highest effect in qualitative and quantitative models for predicting the BBB permeability of chemicals. Moreover, these models showed predictive performance superior to those reported earlier in the literature. This demonstrates the appropriateness of the developed SAR models to reliably predict the BBB permeability of new chemicals, which can be used for initial screening of the molecules in the drug development process.     

A Quantitative Structure–Activity Relationship Study of Calpeptin (Calpain Inhibitor) as an Anticancer Agent

Calpeptin analogs show anticancer properties with inhibition of calpain. In this work, we applied a quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) model on 34 calpeptin derivatives to select the most appropriate compound. QSAR was employed to generate the models and predict the more significant compounds through a series of calpeptin derivatives. The HyperChem, Gaussian 09, and Dragon software programs were used for geometry optimization of the molecules. The 2D and 3D molecular structures were drawn by ChemDraw (Ultra 16.0) and Chem3D (Pro16.0) software. The Unscrambler program was used for the analysis of data. Multiple linear regression (MLR‐MLR), partial least‐squares (MLR‐PLS1), principal component regression (MLR‐PCR), a genetic algorithm‐artificial neural networks (GA‐ANN), and a novel similarity analysis‐artificial neural network (SA‐ANN) method were used to create QSAR models. Among the three MLR models, MLR‐MLR provided better statistical parameters. The R² and RMSE of the prediction were estimated as 0.8248 and 0.26, respectively. Nevertheless, the constructed model using GA‐ANN revealed the best statistical parameters among the studied methods (R² test = 0.9643, RMSE test = 0.0155, R² train = 0.9644, RMSE train = 0.0139). The GA‐ANN model is found to be the most favorable method among the statistical methods and can be employed for designing new calpeptin analogs as potent calpain inhibitors in cancer treatment.     

Comparative study to predict toxic modes of action of phenols from molecular structures

Quantitative structure–activity relationship models for the prediction of mode of toxic action (MOA) of 221 phenols to the ciliated protozoan Tetrahymena pyriformis using atom-based quadratic indices are reported. The phenols represent a variety of MOAs including polar narcotics, weak acid respiratory uncouplers, pro-electrophiles and soft electrophiles. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA), and four machine learning techniques (ML), namely k-nearest neighbours (k-NN), support vector machine (SVM), classification trees (CTs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs), have been used to develop several models with higher accuracies and predictive capabilities for distinguishing between four MOAs. Most of them showed global accuracy of over 90%, and false alarm rate values were below 2.9% for the training set. Cross-validation, complementary subsets and external test set were performed, with good behaviour in all cases. Our models compare favourably with other previously published models, and in general the models obtained with ML techniques show better results than those developed with linear techniques. We developed unsupervised and supervised consensus, and these results were better than our ML models, the results of rule-based approach and other ensemble models previously published. This investigation highlights the merits of ML-based techniques as an alternative to other more traditional methods for modelling MOA.     

Towards predicting the solubility of CO2 and N2 in different polymers using a quasi-SMILES based QSPR approach

The solubility of gases in various polymers plays an important role for the design of new polymeric materials. Quantitative structure–property relationship (QSPR) models were designed to predict the solubility of gases such as CO₂ and N₂ in polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), polystyrene (PS), polyvinyl acetate (PVA) and poly (butylene succinate) (PBS) at different temperatures and pressures by using quasi-SMILES codes. The dataset of 315 systems was split randomly into training, calibration and validation sets; random split 1 led to 214 training (r² = 0.870 and RMSE = 0.019), 51 calibration (r² = 0.858 and RMSE = 0.020) and 50 validation (r² = 0.869 and RMSE = 0.017) sets. The suggested approach based on the quasi-SMILES, which are analogues of the traditional SMILES gives reasonable good predictions for solubility of CO₂ and N₂ in different polymers. The described methodology is universal for situations where the aim is to predict the response of an eclectic system upon a variety of physicochemical and/or biochemical conditions.     

Holographic quantitative structure-activity relationship for prediction of the toxicity of polybrominated diphenyl ether congeners

Polybrominated diphenyl ether congeners (PBDEs) might activate the AhR (aromatic hydrocarbon receptor) signal transduction, and thus might have an adverse effect on the health of humans and wildlife. Because of the limited experimental data, it is important and necessary to develop structure-based models for prediction of the toxicity of the compounds. In this study, a new molecular structure representation, molecular hologram, was employed to investigate the quantitative relationship between toxicity and molecular structures for 18 PBDEs. The model with the significant correlation and robustness (r ² = 0.991, q ² _LOO = 0.917) was developed. To verify the robustness and prediction capacity of the derived model, 14 PBDEs were randomly selected from the database as the training set, while the rest were used as the test set. The results generated under the same modeling conditions as the optimal model are as follows: r ² = 0.988, q ² _LOO = 0.598, r ² _pred = 0.955, and RMSE (root-mean-square of errors) = 0.155, suggesting the excellent ability of the derived model to predict the toxicity of PBDEs. Furthermore, the structural features and molecular mechanism related to the toxicity of PBDEs were explored using HQSAR color coding.     

QSAR models for biocides: The example of the prediction of Daphnia magna acute toxicity

ABSTRACT

Biocides are multi-component products used to control undesired and harmful organisms able to affect human or animal health or to damage natural and manufactured products. Because of their widespread use, aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems could be contaminated by biocides. The environmental impact of biocides is evaluated through eco-toxicological studies with model organisms of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. We focused on the development of in silico models for the evaluation of the acute toxicity (EC₅₀) of a set of biocides collected from different sources on the freshwater crustacean Daphnia magna, one of the most widely used model organisms in aquatic toxicology. Toxicological data specific for biocides are limited, so we developed three models for daphnid toxicity using different strategies (linear regression, random forest, Monte Carlo (CORAL)) to overcome this limitation. All models gave satisfactory results in our datasets: the random forest model showed the best results with a determination coefficient r² = 0.97 and 0.89, respectively, for the training (TS) and the validation sets (VS) while linear regression model and the CORAL model had similar but lower performance (r² = 0.83 and 0.75, respectively, for TS and VS in the linear regression model and r² = 0.74 and 0.75 for the CORAL model).