Functional estimation incorporating prior correlation information

This paper deals with the problem of estimating functional data from a functional noise model, i.e., on the basis of the observations of a discrete-time stochastic process in additive white noise which can be correlated with the process. Assuming prior information on the correlation functions involved and using principal component analysis for stochastic processes, a general suboptimum estimation procedure is derived. The proposed solution is valid for smoothing, filtering and prediction problems, can be applied to estimate any operation of the process, such as derivatives, and constitutes a computationally efficient algorithm.     

Estimation of the Rate of a Doubly Stochastic Time-Space Poisson Process

We consider the problem of estimating the rate of a doubly stochastic,time-space Poisson process when the observations are restrictedto a region DR², and assuming that the rate process has a Gaussianform. In the case D=R², we extend a known result to computethe minimum-mean-square-error (MMSE) estimate explicitly. WhenDR², we consider the use of linear estimates. We give closed-formexpressions for the mean and the covariance of the rate processin terms of the mean and the covariance of an underlying stateprocess. This enables us to write down a well-defined integralequation which determines the linear MMSE estimate of the rate.     

Non parametric estimation of smooth stationary covariance functions by interpolation methods

In this paper we introduce a nonparametric approach for the estimation of the covariance function of a stationary stochastic process X _t indexed by The data consist of a finite number of observations of the process at irregularly spaced time points and the aim is to estimate the covariance at any lag point without parametric assumptions and in such a way that it is a positive definite function. After interpolating the process, we use the estimator designed by Parzen (Technometrics 3:167–190,1961) for continuous-time data. Our estimator is shown to be consistent under smoothness assumptions on the covariance. Its performance is evaluated by simulations.     

ESTIMATING A STOCHASTIC MODEL OF POPULATION DYNAMICS WITH AN APPLICATION TO KANGAROOS

In this study, we derive stochastic models of population dynamics and devise a new method of estimating the models. The models allow growth and harvest to be nonlinear functions of stochastic processes and the error terms to be nonlinear and heteroskedastic. Ordinary least-squares estimates would be biased and inefficient and generalized least-squares estimates cannot be calculated. Therefore, we implement nonlinear maximum likelihood methods to find unbiased and efficient estimates of parameters. The method is applied to the population dynamics of kangaroos in South Australia. Aerial survey data of kangaroo numbers are combined with harvest, effort and rainfall data to estimate the growth and harvest functions and the variances of the stochastic processes which drive the system. Results suggest that growth and harvest should be modeled as functions of stochastic processes and that observations on kangaroo numbers are critical for estimating population dynamics. The results also indicate that the estimation method works well and is a viable alternative to ARIMA and GARCH models, particularly for small data sets.     

Large Deviation Probabilities for Square-Gaussian Stochastic Processes

We investigate properties of square-Gaussian stochastic processes. These processes are formed by quadratic forms of Gaussian processes or by limits in the mean square of quadratic forms of Gaussian processes. Special classes of these processes are determined and investigated. For processes from these classes estimates of large deviation probability are obtained. These estimates we use to estimate the probability that Gaussian vector-valued process leave some region on some interval of time. We construct asymptotic confidence regions for estimates of covariance functions of vector-valued Gaussian processes. Criterion of hypothesis testing on covariance functions of these processes is constructed.     

The rank of the covariance matrix of an evanescent field

Evanescent random fields arise as a component of the 2D Wold decomposition of homogeneous random fields. Besides their theoretical importance, evanescent random fields have a number of practical applications, such as in modeling the observed signal in the space-time adaptive processing (STAP) of airborne radar data. In this paper we derive an expression for the rank of the low-rank covariance matrix of a finite dimension sample from an evanescent random field. It is shown that the rank of this covariance matrix is completely determined by the evanescent field spectral support parameters, alone. Thus, the problem of estimating the rank lends itself to a solution that avoids the need to estimate the rank from the sample covariance matrix. We show that this result can be immediately applied to considerably simplify the estimation of the rank of the interference covariance matrix in the STAP problem.     

Local likelihood estimation for nonstationary random fields

We develop a weighted local likelihood estimate for the parameters that govern the local spatial dependency of a locally stationary random field. The advantage of this local likelihood estimate is that it smoothly downweights the influence of faraway observations, works for irregular sampling locations, and when designed appropriately, can trade bias and variance for reducing estimation error. This paper starts with an exposition of our technique on the problem of estimating an unknown positive function when multiplied by a stationary random field. This example gives concrete evidence of the benefits of our local likelihood as compared to unweighted local likelihoods. We then discuss the difficult problem of estimating a bandwidth parameter that controls the amount of influence from distant observations. Finally we present a simulation experiment for estimating the local smoothness of a local Matérn random field when observing the field at random sampling locations in [0,1]². The local Matérn is a fully nonstationary random field, has a closed form covariance, can attain any degree of differentiability or Hölder smoothness and behaves locally like a stationary Matérn. We include an appendix that proves the positive definiteness of this covariance function.     

Parameter Estimates and Exact Variations for Stochastic Heat Equations Driven by Space-Time White Noise

Abstract

In this article we calculate the exact quadratic variation in space and quartic variation in time for the solutions to a one dimensional stochastic heat equation driven by a multiplicative space-time white noise. We use the knowledge of exact variations to estimate the drift parameter appearing in the equation.     

Unbiased ensemble square root filters

Ensemble square root filters are a method of data assimilation, where model forecasts are combined with observations to produce an improved state estimate, or analysis. There are a number of different algorithms in the literature and it is not clear which of these is the best for any given application. This work shows that in some implementations there can be a systematic bias in the analysis ensemble mean and consequently an accompanying shortfall in the spread of the analysis ensemble as expressed by the ensemble covariance matrix. We have established a set of necessary and sufficient conditions for the scheme to be unbiased. While these conditions are not a cure-all and cannot deal with independent sources of bias such as model and observation errors, they should be useful to designers of ensemble square root filters in the future. (© 2008 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Quantile regression for robust bank efficiency score estimation

We discuss quantile regression techniques as a robust and easy to implement alternative for estimating Farell technical efficiency scores. The quantile regression approach estimates the production process for benchmark banks located at top conditional quantiles. Monte Carlo simulations reveal that even when generating data according to the assumptions of the stochastic frontier model (SFA), efficiency estimates obtained from quantile regressions resemble SFA-efficiency estimates. We apply the SFA and the quantile regression approach to German bank data for three banking groups, commercial banks, savings banks and cooperative banks to estimate efficiency scores based on a simple value added function and a multiple-input–multiple-output cost function. The results reveal that the efficient (benchmark) banks have production and cost elasticities which differ considerably from elasticities obtained from conditional mean functions and stochastic frontier functions.     

无偏的岭回归迭代算法

本文探讨线性模型的无偏的岭回归迭代算法,这种算法保持最小二乘法的性质,当存在较为严重的共线性时,它能给出较为精确的参数及其协差阵的估计值;当存在严格的共线性时,给出参数及其协差阵的无穷多解中的一个,这个解由初值决定。文章还给出了算法的收敛性及一些其它性质的证明。     

Penalized Covariance Matrix Estimation Using a Matrix-Logarithm Transformation

For statistical inferences that involve covariance matrices, it is desirable to obtain an accurate covariance matrix estimate with a well-structured eigen-system. We propose to estimate the covariance matrix through its matrix logarithm based on an approximate log-likelihood function. We develop a generalization of the Leonard and Hsu log-likelihood approximation that no longer requires a nonsingular sample covariance matrix. The matrix log-transformation provides the ability to impose a convex penalty on the transformed likelihood such that the largest and smallest eigenvalues of the covariance matrix estimate can be regularized simultaneously. The proposed method transforms the problem of estimating the covariance matrix into the problem of estimating a symmetric matrix, which can be solved efficiently by an iterative quadratic programming algorithm. The merits of the proposed method are illustrated by a simulation study and two real applications in classification and portfolio optimization. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Joint semiparametric mean-covariance model in longitudinal study

Semiparametric regression models and estimating covariance functions are very useful for longitudinal study. To heed the positive-definiteness constraint, we adopt the modified Cholesky decomposition approach to decompose the covariance structure. Then the covariance structure is fitted by a semiparametric model by imposing parametric within-subject correlation while allowing the nonparametric variation function. We estimate regression functions by using the local linear technique and propose generalized es...     

Semiparametric Estimation and Selection for Nonstationary Spatial Covariance Functions

We propose a method for estimating nonstationary spatial covariance functions by representing a spatial process as a linear combination of some local basis functions with uncorrelated random coefficients and some stationary processes, based on spatial data sampled in space with repeated measurements. By incorporating a large collection of local basis functions with various scales at various locations and stationary processes with various degrees of smoothness, the model is flexible enough to represent a wide variety of nonstationary spatial features. The covariance estimation and model selection are formulated as a regression problem with the sample covariances as the response and the covariances corresponding to the local basis functions and the stationary processes as the predictors. A constrained least squares approach is applied to select appropriate basis functions and stationary processes as well as estimate parameters simultaneously. In addition, a constrained generalized least squares approach is proposed to further account for the dependencies among the response variables. A simulation experiment shows that our method performs well in both covariance function estimation and spatial prediction. The methodology is applied to a U.S. precipitation dataset for illustration. Supplemental materials relating to the application are available online.     

Efficient parameter estimation via modified Cholesky decomposition for quantile regression with longitudinal data

It is well known that specifying a covariance matrix is difficult in the quantile regression with longitudinal data. This paper develops a two step estimation procedure to improve estimation efficiency based on the modified Cholesky decomposition. Specifically, in the first step, we obtain the initial estimators of regression coefficients by ignoring the possible correlations between repeated measures. Then, we apply the modified Cholesky decomposition to construct the covariance models and obtain the estimator of within-subject covariance matrix. In the second step, we construct unbiased estimating functions to obtain more efficient estimators of regression coefficients. However, the proposed estimating functions are discrete and non-convex. We utilize the induced smoothing method to achieve the fast and accurate estimates of parameters and their asymptotic covariance. Under some regularity conditions, we establish the asymptotically normal distributions for the resulting estimators. Simulation studies and the longitudinal progesterone data analysis show that the proposed approach yields highly efficient estimators.     

A moving average Cholesky factor model in joint mean-covariance modeling for longitudinal data

Modeling the mean and covariance simultaneously is a common strategy to efciently estimate the mean parameters when applying generalized estimating equation techniques to longitudinal data.In this article,using generalized estimation equation techniques,we propose a new kind of regression models for parameterizing covariance structures.Using a novel Cholesky factor,the entries in this decomposition have moving average and log innovation interpretation and are modeled as linear functions of covariates.The resulting estimators for the regression coefcients in both the mean and the covariance are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed.Simulation studies and a real data analysis show that the proposed approach yields highly efcient estimators for the parameters in the mean,and provides parsimonious estimation for the covariance structure.     

Limiting optimal adaptive filtering with unknown disturbance covariance

The accuracy of estimating the variance of the Kalman-Bucy filter depends essentially on disturbance covariance matrices and measurement noise. The main difficulty in filter design is the lack of necessary statistical information about the useful signal and the disturbance. Filters whose parameters are tuned during active estimation are classified with adaptive filters. The problem of adaptive filtering under parametric uncertainty conditions is studied. A method for designing limiting optimal Kalman-Bucy filters in the case of unknown disturbance covariance is presented. An adaptive algorithm for estimating disturbance covariance matrices based on stochastic approximation is described. Convergence conditions for this algorithm are investigated. The operation of a limiting adaptive filter is exemplified.     

On the maximum-entropy approach to undersized samples

In the context of estimating a covariance matrix, the problem of undersized samples occurs when the number of sample observations is less than the number of variables. One possible solution to such problems as they arise in the estimation of covariance matrices, and more general multivariate analyses, is provided by the maximum-entropy (ME) distribution and its covariance matrix. This paper addresses two questions that are often posed with regard to the ME covariance matrix: (1) Does the procedure involve a heavy computational burden? (2) How does it relate to the solutions provided by generalized inverses?     

Cahn-Hilliard stochastic equation: Strict positivity of the density

This paper deals with the Cahn-Hilliard stochastic equation driven by a space-time white noise with a non-linear diffusion coefficient. Using new lower estimate of the kernel, we prove the "local" existence of the density without non-degeneracy condition in a case of Hölder continuous trajectories, and we show that the density of any vector is lower bounded by a strictly positive continuous function under a non-degeneracy condition.     

The cross-entropy method in multi-objective optimisation: An assessment

Solving multi-objective problems requires the evaluation of two or more conflicting objective functions, which often demands a high amount of computational power. This demand increases rapidly when estimating values for objective functions of dynamic, stochastic problems, since a number of observations are needed for each evaluation set, of which there could be many. Computer simulation applications of real-world optimisations often suffer due to this phenomenon. Evolutionary algorithms are often applied to multi-objective problems. In this article, the cross-entropy method is proposed as an alternative, since it has been proven to converge quickly in the case of single-objective optimisation problems. We adapted the basic cross-entropy method for multi-objective optimisation and applied the proposed algorithm to known test problems. This was followed by an application to a dynamic, stochastic problem where a computer simulation model provides the objective function set. The results show that acceptable results can be obtained while doing relatively few evaluations.