Multiobjective linear programming with context-dependent preferences

Multiobjective linear programming algorithms are typically based on value maximization. However, there is a growing body of experimental evidence showing that decision maker behavior is inconsistent with value maximization. Tversky and Simonson provide an alternative model for problems with a discrete set of choices. Their model, called the componential context model, has been shown to capture observed decision maker behavior. In this paper, an interactive multiobjective linear programming algorithm is developed which follows the rationale of Tversky and Simonson. The algorithm is illustrated with an example solved using standard linear programming software. Finally, an interactive decision support system based on this algorithm is developed to field test the usefulness of the algorithm. Results show that this algorithm compares favorably with an established algorithm in the field.     

On the convergence of reference point methods in multiobjective programming

The purpose of this paper is to present some results about the convergence of interactive reference point methods in multiobjective programming. In particular, we describe how dual information may guide the decision maker in his choice of the successive reference points.In the literature different convergence models have been proposed. The analyst may induce convergence by selecting appropriate rules of the communication. Or he may rely on the learning process of the decision maker to induce some kind of ‘psychological’ convergence. In neither case are the activities of the decision maker precisely described. Consequently, the quality of the final decision cannot be established, and the question of convergence remains an unsolved issue.We describe different ways in which the decision maker may select his successive reference points, and we discuss the convergence of the resulting reference point procedures. Also, we comment on the relevance of these different assumptions about the decision maker's behavior. The procedures are illustrated by a small numerical example.     

Stackelberg Solutions to Multiobjective Two-Level Linear Programming Problems

In this paper, we consider a multiobjective two-level linear programming problem in which the decision maker at each level has multiple-objective functions conflicting with each other. The decision maker at the upper level must take account of multiple or infinite rational responses of the decision maker at the lower level in the problem. We examine three kinds of situations based on anticipation of the decision maker at the upper level: optimistic anticipation, pessimistic anticipation, and anticipation arising from the past behavior of the decision maker at the lower level. Mathematical programming problems for obtaining the Stackelberg solutions based on the three kinds of anticipation are formulated and algorithms for solving the problems are presented. Illustrative numerical examples are provided to understand the geometrical properties of the solutions and demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed methods.     

Multiple objectives decomposition–coordination methods for hierarchical organizations

In this paper, the integration of goal programming models and hierarchical programming models is analyzed. The systems under study are assumed to consist of interconnected subsystems with multiple goals in each. Three possible cases regarding the number of decision makers will be considered: (1) one decision maker for the overall goals and one decision maker for each subsystem, (2) conflicting decision makers who are interested in their subsystems, and (3) just one decision maker for the overall system. Next, conditions are stated under which the problem of obtaining satisfying solutions for problems (1) and (3) can be reduced to the problem of obtaining satisfying solutions for the case (2). In order to determine such solutions, hierarchical techniques which exploit the structure of a decomposable system are analyzed. The empirical implementation of the two algorithms proposed shows their efficiency in terms of processing time.     

基于方案贴近度和满意度的交互式不确定多属性决策方法

针对属性权重信息部分确知且对方案有偏好的不确定多属性决策问题,提出一种基于方案贴近度和满意度的交互式决策方法.方法首先利用已知的客观信息和决策者的主观要求建立单目标规划模型,其次通过对方案满意度和综合度的给定与修正来实现人机交互决策.最后,通过实例说明模型及方法的可行性和有效性.     

Sourcing decision under disruption risk with supply and demand uncertainty: A newsvendor approach

Multi-sourcing is considered as a common practice to hedge against supply disruption risk. In this context, this paper proposes two models for optimal order allocation in newsvendor setting, where both supply and demand are uncertain. The first model considers a risk neutral decision maker who maximizes the total expected profit under disruption risk. The second one is for a risk averse decision maker who does so under service level constraints. Analytical closed form solutions for both the models are derived. To overcome the computational complexity of the exact optimal solution, two algorithms are developed to generate optimal order quantity and the corresponding set of suppliers. The solutions with exact optimization algorithms and the proposed ones are illustrated and compared with numerical examples. The results show that the proposed algorithms give the exact optimal solution while being tractable. Finally, a case study is used to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model.     

Fuzzy programming for multiobjective 0–1 programming problems through revised genetic algorithms

Recently, genetic algorithms (GAs), a new learning paradigm that models a natural evolution mechanism, have received a great deal of attention regarding their potential as optimization techniques for solving combinatorial optimization problems. In this paper, we focus on multiobjective 0–1 programming problems as a generalization of the traditional single objective ones. By considering the imprecise nature of human judgements, we assume that the decision maker may have fuzzy goal for each of the objective functions. After eliciting the linear membership functions through the interaction with the decision maker, we adopt the fuzzy decision of Bellman and Zadeh or minimum-operator for combining them. In order to investigate the applicability of the conventional GAs for the solution of the formulated problems, a lot of numerical simulations are performed by assuming several genetic operators. Then, instead of using the penalty function for treating the constraints, we propose three types of revised GAs which generate only feasible solutions. Illustrative numerical examples demonstrate both feasibility and efficiency of the proposed methods.     

An integrated algebraic approach to conflict resolution with three-level preference

An integrated algebraic approach is developed to calculate stabilities in multiple decision maker graph models with three levels of preference. The algebraic approach establishes an integrated paradigm for stability analysis and status quo analysis under different preference structures, such as two-level preference and three-level preference. Difficulties in coding algorithms to analyze stabilities, rooted in their logical representation, led to the development of matrix representations of preference and explicit matrix calculations to determine stabilities. Here, the algebraic approach is used to represent graph models with three levels of preference and to conduct stability analysis for such models. The algebraic approach facilitates the development of new stability concepts and algorithms to calculate them, and reveals an inherent link between status quo analysis and traditional stability analysis. Hence, it will facilitate the design of an integrated decision support system for the graph model for conflict resolution.     

A Model to Evaluate the Effect of Organizational Adaptation

When an organization's output declines due to either internal changes or changes in its external environment, it needs to adapt. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of different adaptation strategies on organizational performance, an organizational model composed of individual models of a five stage interacting decision maker was designed using an object oriented design approach and implemented as a Colored Petri net. The concept of entropy is used to calculate the total activity value, a surrogate for decision maker workload, based on the functional partition and the adaptation strategy being implemented. The individual decision maker's total activity is monitored, as overloaded decision makers constrain organizational performance. A virtual experiment was conducted; organizations implementing local and global adaptation strategies were compared to a control organization with no adaptation. The level of tolerance of the organization, the workload limit based on the concept of the bounded rationality constraint, was used to determined when a decision maker was overloaded: the limiting effect of the workload on performance. The timeliness of the organization's response was used in order to evaluate organizational output as a function of adaptation strategy.     

An interactive fuzzy satisficing method for multiobjective nonconvex programming problems through floating point genetic algorithms

In this paper, we focus on multiobjective nonconvex nonlinear programming problems and present an interactive fuzzy satisficing method through floating point genetic algorithms. After determining the fuzzy goals of the decision maker, if the decision maker specifies the reference membership values, the corresponding Pareto optimal solution can be obtained by solving the augmented minimax problems for which the floating point genetic algorithm, called GENOCOP III, is applicable. In order to overcome the drawbacks of GENOCOP III, we propose the revised GENOCOP III by introducing a method for generating an initial feasible point and a bisection method for generating a new feasible point efficiently. Then an interactive fuzzy satisficing method for deriving a satisficing solution for the decision maker efficiently from a Pareto optimal solution set is presented together with an illustrative numerical example.     

A fuzzy set approach to financial ratio analysis

Ratio analysis is a useful tool of financial analysis. Nevertheless, the traditional ratio analysis is under several constraints: over-empiricist, certainty, standard of reference not useful in all circumstances, etc. Recent researches have pointed out that to overcome those constraints formal decision models can be applied. In this article, fuzzy set theory is applied to ratio analysis with respect to one of the major management problems: liquidity. This approach enables the decision maker to include his own experience and any other type of information to that obtained by the ratio. If all the possible decisions are uniform in time, it is possible to adopt them by the decision maker in each period of analysis in a programmed form through a simple model inputs combination. The approach provided in this article can be extended to other ratio or ratio sets.     

考虑属性关联的C-TODIM决策方法

针对属性具有关联性的多属性决策问题,考虑到决策者具有参照依赖和损失规避行为,提出一种新的C-TODIM决策方法。依据经典TODIM决策方法,考虑决策者的参照依赖行为,计算每个方案相对于其它各个方案关于各属性的收益或损失值;再考虑到决策者的损失规避行为,集成属性关联情形下方案关于所有属性的收益或损失值,得到每个方案相对于其它各个方案的个体感知优势度;在此基础上,计算每个方案的总体感知优势度,并依据总体感知优势度的大小对方案进行排序。最后通过一个风险投资的算例验证该方法的可行性和有效性。     

Dynamic decision making without expected utility: An operational approach

Non-expected utility theories, such as rank dependent utility (RDU) theory, have been proposed as alternative models to EU theory in decision making under risk. These models do not share the separability property of expected utility theory. This implies that, in a decision tree, if the reduction of compound lotteries assumption is made (so that preferences at each decision node reduce to RDU preferences among lotteries) and that preferences at different decision nodes are identical (same utility function and same weighting function), then the preferences are not dynamically consistent; in particular, the sophisticated strategy, i.e., the strategy generated by a standard rolling back of the decision tree, is likely to be dominated w.r.t. stochastic dominance. Dynamic consistency of choices remains feasible, and the decision maker can avoid dominated choices, by adopting a non-consequentialist behavior, with his choices in a subtree possibly depending on what happens in the rest of the tree. We propose a procedure which: (i) although adopting a non-consequentialist behavior, involves a form of rolling back of the decision tree; (ii) selects a non-dominated strategy that realizes a compromise between the decision maker’s discordant goals at the different decision nodes. Relative to the computations involved in the standard expected utility evaluation of a decision problem, the main computational increase is due to the identification of non-dominated strategies by linear programming. A simulation, using the rank dependent utility criterion, confirms the computational tractability of the model.     

Evaluating the quality of online optimization algorithms by discrete event simulation

A key feature of dynamic problems which offer degrees of freedom to the decision maker is the necessity for a goal-oriented decision making routine which is employed every time the logic of the system requires a decision. In this paper, we look at optimization procedures which appear as subroutines in dynamic problems and show how discrete event simulation can be used to assess the quality of algorithms: after establishing a general link between online optimization and discrete event systems, we address performance measurement in dynamic settings and derive a corresponding tool kit. We then analyze several control strategies using the methodologies discussed previously in two real world examples of discrete event simulation models: a manual order picking system and a pickup and delivery service.     

An interactive fuzzy programming system

An interactive system is introduced which supports a decision maker in solving programming models with crisp or fuzzy constraints and crisp or fuzzy goals. One part of the system is the determination of membership functions representing goals. To this purpose fuzzy extreme solutions are computed and are presented to the decision maker. These and each of the proposed compromise solutions are fuzzy-efficient.     

A multiple criteria sorting method where each category is characterized by several reference actions: The Electre Tri-nC method

This paper presents Electre Tri-nC, a new sorting method which takes into account several reference actions for characterizing each category. This new method gives a particular freedom to the decision maker in the co-construction decision aiding process with the analyst to characterize the set of categories, while there is no constraint for introducing only one reference action as typical of each category like in Electre Tri-C (Almeida-Dias et al., 2010). As in such a sorting method, this new sorting method is composed of two joint rules. Electre Tri-nC also fulfills a certain number of natural requirements. Additional results on the behavior of the new method are also provided in this paper, namely the ones with respect to the addition or removal of the reference actions used for characterizing a certain category. A numerical example illustrates the manner in which Electre Tri-nC can be used by a decision maker. A comparison with some related sorting procedures is presented and it allows to conclude that the new method is appropriate to deal with sorting problems.     

A visual reference direction approach to solving discrete multiple criteria problems

In this paper, we propose a new visual interactive method for solving discrete multiple criteria problems. The method is based on the use of a reference direction, which is determined by the aspiration levels for the criteria specified by the decision maker. The reference direction is projected onto the set of efficient alternatives. A subset found in this way is presented to a decision maker in a visual form using computer graphics. He can choose any efficient alternatives he pleases.We need notmake any assumptions about the properties of the utility function.The method has been implemented on an IBM/PC1 microcomputer. The name of the program is Vimda (a Visual Interactive Method for Discrete Alternatives).     

Learning and transfer in dynamic decision environments

An important aspect of learning is the ability to transfer knowledge to new contexts. However, in dynamic decision tasks, such as bargaining, firefighting, and process control, where decision makers must make repeated decisions under time pressure and outcome feedback may relate to any of a number of decisions, such transfer has proven elusive. This paper proposes a two-stage connectionist model which hypothesizes that decision makers learn to identify categories of evidence requiring similar decisions as they perform in dynamic environments. The model suggests conditions under which decision makers will be able to use this ability to help them in novel situations. These predictions are compared against those of a one-stage decision model that does not learn evidence categories, as is common in many current theories of repeated decision making. Both models' predictions are then tested against the performance of decision makers in an Internet bargaining task. Both models correctly predict aspects of decision makers' learning under different interventions. The two-stage model provides closer fits to decision maker performance in a new, related bargaining task and accounts for important features of higher-performing decision makers' learning. Although frequently omitted in recent accounts of repeated decision making, the processes of evidence category formation described by the two-stage model appear critical in understanding the extent to which decision makers learn from feedback in dynamic tasks. Faison (Bud) Gibson is an Assistant Professor at College of Business, Eastern Michigan University. He has extensive experience developing and empirically testing models of decision behavior in dynamic decision environments.     

Newsvendor-type models with decision-dependent uncertainty

Models for decision-making under uncertainty use probability distributions to represent variables whose values are unknown when the decisions are to be made. Often the distributions are estimated with observed data. Sometimes these variables depend on the decisions but the dependence is ignored in the decision maker??s model, that is, the decision maker models these variables as having an exogenous probability distribution independent of the decisions, whereas the probability distribution of the variables actually depend on the decisions. It has been shown in the context of revenue management problems that such modeling error can lead to systematic deterioration of decisions as the decision maker attempts to refine the estimates with observed data. Many questions remain to be addressed. Motivated by the revenue management, newsvendor, and a number of other problems, we consider a setting in which the optimal decision for the decision maker??s model is given by a particular quantile of the estimated distribution, and the empirical distribution is used as estimator. We give conditions under which the estimation and control process converges, and show that although in the limit the decision maker??s model appears to be consistent with the observed data, the modeling error can cause the limit decisions to be arbitrarily bad.