Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Exponent and Quantification of Local Predictability |
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| Authors: | DING Rui-Qiang LI Jian-Ping HA Kyung-Ja |
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| Affiliation: | State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University, Busan 609-735, Korea |
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| Abstract: | ![]()
Nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) is applied to quantitatively determine the local predictability limit of chaotic systems. As an example, we find that the local predictability limit of Henon attractor varies considerably with time, and some underlying phase-spatial structure does not appear. The local predictability limit of initially adjacent points in phase space may be completely different. This will cause difficulties in making the long-time analogue forecast. |
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| Keywords: | 95.10.Fh 92.60.Wc |
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