| 禽流感H7N9传播模型的动力学分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 周飘飘,祝光湖. 禽流感H7N9传播模型的动力学分析[J]. 应用数学和力学, 2019, 40(3): 311-320. DOI: 10.21656/1000-0887.390175 |
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| 作者姓名： | 周飘飘 祝光湖 |
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| 作者单位： | 1桂林电子科技大学 数学与计算科学学院, 广西 桂林 541004;2广东省疾病预防控制中心 广东省公共卫生研究院, 广州 511430 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金（11661026）;广州市科技计划（201804010383）；广西自然科学基金(2017GXNSFAA198235) |
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| 摘 要： | H7N9型禽流感严重威胁人类健康和生命安全.为研究H7N9病毒的传播规律，提出了一个结合人群、家禽和环境中病毒之间相互作用的SI-V-SEIR禽流感传染病模型.通过动力学分析，给出基本再生数R0的表达式，并证明无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的稳定性.接着应用模型分析广东省2016年—2017年的H7N9疫情，获得疫情初期R0=18.8，此时禽类的接种率需达到94.7%才能控制病毒在禽类和环境中的传播，而采取措施后R0=0.14.结果表明，降低环境中的病毒载量、和禽类之间以及禽到人的传染率能有效地减少染病人数.
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| 关 键 词： | H7N9 动力学模型 稳定性 基本再生数 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-06-25 |
Dynamic Analysis of the Avian Influenza A (H7N9) Transmission Model |
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| Affiliation: | 1School of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, Guangxi 541004, P.R.China;2Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, P.R.China |
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| Abstract: | Avian influenza A(H7N9) is always a big threat to human health and safety. Aimed at the transmission patterns of A(H7N9), a new SI-V-SEIR epidemic model was put forward, which incorporated the viral interactions among humans, poultry and environment. Through dynamic analysis, the expression of basic reproduction number R0 was given, and the stability of disease-free and endemic equilibrium points was proved. The proposed model was further applied to study the 2016—2017 A(H7N9) outbreaks in Guangdong province. It is found thatR0=18.8 in the early outbreak, which indicates 94.7% of poultry to be vaccinated for the control of the virus transmission in poultry and environment. After control,R0 will fall down to 0.14. The results show that, reduction of the viral load in environment and the infection ratios among poultry and from poultry to humans could effectively lower human infections. |
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