巴基斯坦Mw≥5.8地震时空对称与旋转规律研究及趋势判断

灾害预测是世界难题，选取1966年以来巴基斯坦M_w≥5.8地震数据，基于可公度理论和对称性原理，采用蝴蝶结构图和灾害统计方法分析了巴基斯坦M_w≥5.8地震的时空对称性，对下一次发生地震的位置进行趋势判断，并结合可能触发地震的主要天文因素，从地震触发机理上验证了判断结果的可靠性。 结果表明：（1）巴基斯坦M_w≥5.8历史地震可公度性良好，2018、2019年发震信号较强；（2）巴基斯坦M_w≥5.8地震在空间上呈三边形对称结构，震中空间变化具有两点线空间迁移规律和空间旋转规律，且在70.9 °E～77.7 °E，31.5 °N～37 °N发生M_w≥5.8地震的可能性较大；（3）巴基斯坦M_w≥5.8地震多发生在太阳黑子数下降段，这也进一步佐证了2018、2019年该地区发生地震的可能性。 该研究对完善统计方法，验证统计案例有重大意义，对巴基斯坦防灾减灾有参考价值。

A study on the spatial-temporal distribution and trendency judgement for earthquakes of Mw≥5.8 in Pakistan

The hazard prediction is a worldwide problem. Exploiting the seismic data of all the earthquakes with M_W≥5.8 since 1966 of Pakistan, this paper analyses their space-time symmetry by using the butterfly structure and disaster statistics calculation method based on the commensurability theory and symmetry principle. According to the law of space rotation in the epicenter and the characteristic of the epicenter migration pattern of the adjacent space wired， the trend judgement for the location of next earthquake can be made: (1) the commensurability of Pakistan historical earthquake of M_W≥5.8 is good, the signal for an earthquake in 2018 and 2019 is strong; (2) a M_W≥5.8 earthquake is likely to happen in 70.9°E～77.7°E，31.5°N～37°N of Pakistan according to the spatial characteristics of earthquake epicenter position; (3) most M_W≥5.8 earthquakes happened during the stage when the number of sunspots declines, which offers a further evidence for the next earthquake in 2018 and 2019 in the region. This study provides a good reference in improving the statistical method, verifying statistical case, and for the disaster prevention and mitigation of Pakistan.