1960~2014年淮河流域5省旱涝变化

基于1960~2014年淮河流域5省72个站点的气温、降水数据，运用克里金插值法、标准化降水指数（SPI）、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法进行分析，探讨该地区气候变化特点，分析淮河流域5省旱涝灾害的变化趋势.结果显示：（1）1960~2014年淮河流域5省多年平均气温为14.463℃，并以0.009℃·a^-1的速率上升，1997年年均温发生突变，空间上温度变化大体呈现由西南向东北递减的趋势；（2）年降水量呈缓慢递减趋势，下降速率为0.28 mm·a^-1，且年降水量存在3个较为明显的峰值，分别对应28，22，10 a的时间尺度，空间上呈现自东南向西北递减的“W”型分布，并且研究区呈现明显的暖干化特征；（3）气温突变后，雨涝覆盖面积不断增加，干旱覆盖面积逐渐减小；（4）气温突变后与突变前相比，干旱频率和雨涝频率明显降低.

An analysis on floods and droughts in the five provinces of Huaihe River Basin from 1960 to 2014

Based on the meteorological data of 72 stations in the five provinces from 1960 to 2014, the influence of climate change on different disaster inducing factors are analyzed by using Mann-Kendall test method, standardized precipitation index and the wavelet analysis to explore the trend of droughts and floods. It shows that: (1) In recent 55 years, the annual average temperature is 14.463 ℃ in the five provinces, with a rising tendency of 0.009 ℃·a^-1 while the spatial distribution of temperature in this area presents a degressive trend from southwest to northeast. The abrupt change of average annual temperature occurred in 1997. (2)The precipitation declines slowly under the rate of 0.28 mm·a^-1. It exists three obvious peak values, which corresponds to the time scale changing of 28, 22, 10 a. The precipitation diminishes spatially from southeast to northwest presenting the “W” type. The entire area exhibits the characteristics of warmer and dry changing. (3) After the abrupt change of temperature, the flood covered area increases and the drought area decreases. (4) After temperature mutation, the frequency of droughts and floods decreases significantly.