基于Kaya扩展的浙江能耗氮排放及其影响因素研究

将1980~2014年浙江省天然能耗氮排放过程分为3个阶段：1980~1990，1991~2000，2001~2014，采用Kaya扩展恒等式并结合LMDIM，研究了1980~2014年浙江省天然能耗氮排放的主要推动因子.并通过分析1980年以来浙江省社会经济发展趋势和排氮量变化特征，定量分析了经济产出、人口规模、能源强度、能源结构和能源替代效应分别在3个阶段的贡献.得到：（1）氮排放增长的首要正影响因子为经济产出，其次为人口规模.（2）改革开放以来，能耗强度的降低抑制了氮排放，能源强度为负效应.（3）能源结构效应和能源替代效应也为负效应，但在第3阶段，二者均由负效应转变为正效应.

A study on the energy consumption nitrogen emission and its influence factors based on the expand Kaya in Zhejiang Province

This paper divides the nitrogen emission process in Zhejiang Province during 1980 to 2014 into three stages：1980-1990, 1991-2000, 2001-2014, and adopts the logarithmic mean division index model (LMDIM) combined with expand Kaya identity to study the main driving factors of natural energy consumption nitrogen emission in Zhejiang Province during 1980 to 2014. It analyises quantitatively the effect of economic, population, energy intensity, energy structure and energy substitution effect in the different stages of the process. The results show that (1) Economic effect is the primary positive contributor to nitrogen emission growth, and followed by the population effect. (2) The decrease of energy consumption intensity inhibits the growth rate of nitrogen emissions, hence leading to a negative effect since the time of reform and opening policy. (3) The negative contributors also include the energy structure and energy substitution effect, but both of them become positive contributors in the third stage.