云贵地区气象旱涝的气候响应特征

根据1960~2014年云贵地区49个站点的逐月降水量和气温资料,利用标准化降水指数、Mann-Kendall突变检验及小波分析等方法研究了季尺度和年尺度的气温和降水量的变化特征及旱涝演变趋势.结果表明:(1)1960~2014年云贵地区气温呈明显上升趋势,且上升速率冬季秋季春季夏季,1997年出现了气温突变现象.(2)降水量呈下降趋势,其中,秋季降水量下降最快,冬季最慢,且降水呈现14a和28a的周期变化.(3)1960~2014年云贵地区呈现偏旱的趋势,且夏秋两季干旱趋势较为明显.(4)从空间尺度分析,云贵地区整体上趋于干旱(SPI倾向率小于0),在云南与贵州交界处,偏旱现象较为严重,仅在云南省北部出现偏湿现象.因此近55a云贵地区气候呈暖干化趋势.

Drought-flood response characteristics to the climate in Yun-Gui area

According to the monthly precipitation and temperature data of 49 sites in Yun-Gui area from 1960 to 2014, this paper uses standardized precipitation index, Mann-Kendall mutation test and wavelet analysis method to study the changes in seasonal scale and the year scale of temperature and precipitation characteristics, as well as the drought evolution trend. The results show that:(1)The temperature gradually increased from 1960 to 2014. The temperature rise rate of winter was the largest. The abrupt change of average annual temperature occurred in 1997. (2) The precipitation was decreasing; The fastest decline in autumn, and the slowest in winter; The precipitation presents 14 a and 28 a cycle.(3) Yun-Gui area presented a droughty trend from 1960 to 2014. The summer and autumn drought appeared as an obvious trend. (4)The climate of Yun-Gui area was becoming drought (SPI trend rate was less than 0), and is more seriously at the junction of Yunnan and Guizhou province, while, only the Northern Yunnan rigion becomes wetting. So the climate of Yun-Gui area was becoming warmer and drier in recent 55 years.