| 台州市台风气象灾害评估方法探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨万裕,翁之梅,刘汉华,高岭花.台州市台风气象灾害评估方法探讨[J].浙江大学学报(理学版),2015,42(Z1):153-157. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨万裕 翁之梅 刘汉华 高岭花 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过分析1984~2010年影响浙江省台州市的台风灾害资料，以新构建的台风规范化灾情指数评估台州历史台风的灾情等级，比较符合台州市的实际灾情状况.结果表明：台风规范化灾情指数预报模型拟合率较高，拟合误差1级准确率达到了88.00%以上；新指数模型计算简单，评估效果较好，可为政府及相关部门提供定量化、科学化的灾情评估和灾后灾情评估产品.
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An exploration of typhoon disaster risk evaluation method for Taizhou,Zhejiang Province |
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| Abstract: | Based on the actual disasters of typhoon from 1984 to 2010 in Taizhou, the new standard typhoon disaster index is more in line with the actual grade of typhoon disaster.The fitting rate of the model of the standard typhoon disaster index is high, and the accuracy of fitting error reaches 88.00%.The calculation is simple, and the effect of evaluation is better. So it is a quantitative and scientific product for disaster forecast and assessment. |
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