考虑处置效果的苯系物泄露应急方案生成方法

针对苯系物泄露次生突发环境事件的应急响应问题，研究了基于案例推理和处置效果的应急方案生成方法。首先，在计算案例相似度时，为避免历史案例不全产生的情景要素遗失，基于随机森林算法，结合专家知识构建了权重求解方法，采用案例检索方法得到相似案例集；然后，构建了应急处置效果评估指标体系，以全面评价相似案例对应的处置效果；进一步，考虑多专家评价可弥补决策者知识、经验等的不足，引入了自适应群共识调整算法，得到群体评价意见，通过集结相似度与处置效果，得到了方案的综合评价值并生成最优方案；最后，用算例说明了方法的可行性和有效性。

Generation of emergency response plan for benzene explosion considering the disposal effect

In order to take prompt and effective response to environmental emergencies caused by benzene leakage, the method of generating emergency plan based on case-based reasoning and emergency response effect is studied. Firstly, based on the random forest algorithm and expert knowledge, a method of calculating weight is constructed to retrieve all the historical similar cases. The similar case set is then obtained. Secondly we develop a system to evaluate the emergency response effect of each similar case. Thirdly we introduce an adaptive group consensus adjustment algorithm to get the group evaluation opinions. The comprehensive evaluation value of each response plan is obtained by jointly accounting for the case similarity and disposal effect, based on which the optimal scheme can be generated. An example is used to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.