中日关系、国民好感度及对旅游互动的影响

依据2005—2016年中日关系定量测定、国民好感度问卷调查、中日两国旅游互动数据，分析了中日关系、国民好感度及对旅游互动的影响。结果发现：在2005—2006年以及2010年“钓鱼岛事件”后中日关系恶化，导致两国国民对对方国家的好感度下降，给双边旅游互动造成不同程度的负面影响。日本国民好感度与中国大陆国民好感度均为完全中介效应，其值分别为0.040和0.143，即中日关系对双边旅游互动的影响通过国民好感度起作用。

Sino-Japanese relations,national favorability and their impact on tourism interaction

Based on the Sino-Japanese relations, the national favorability a survey and the tourism interactive data between China and Japan from 2005 to 2016, this paper analyzed the influence of these factors on tourism. The result shows that: Sino-Japanese relations value declined during 2005 and 2006 and after the Sino-Japanese “Diaoyu dispute” in 2010. Following the deterioration of Sino-Japanese relations the degree of favorability between Chinese and Japanese declined and the degree of bad impression increased. During the period of 1992 to 2007, the number of Japanese tourists entering China and the proportion of outbound tourists was both increasing, and then declined due to the financial crisis and “Diaoyu Island incident” from 2008 to 2016. From 1992 to 2010, China's outbound tourists to Japan showed a growth trend, then a declining trend during 2010 and 2013. After 2014, Japan has introduced a number of preferential policies to attract Chinese tourists, the number of China's outbound tourists to Japan then rised. It is recognized that the mediating effect of national favorability is the complete mediating effect. In the process of Japanese' inbound tourism to China, the mediating effect is 0.040. In the process of Chinese' outbound to Japan, the mediating effect is 0.143.