基于熵效率模型的环渤海地区海洋经济系统韧性研究

可持续发展理论难以深入解释区域经济为何能在扰动因素下保持增长, 而“韧性”是解析区域经济演化的重要概念. 本文基于演化韧性视角, 提出海洋经济系统韧性概念, 建立以信息熵为基础的评价体系, 并构建熵投入和熵产出的熵效率模型, 应用SBM模型测算环渤海地区17个沿海城市在16年间的海洋经济系统熵效率, 最后分析了海洋经济系统熵变过程及韧性的演化规律与机制. 研究表明2000~2015年环渤海地区: (1)海洋经济系统的发展与韧性水平的提升由系统熵流与熵产生所形成的负熵所驱动; (2)海洋经济系统韧性经历由慢到快、由差到优的发展过程, 目前韧性整体相对较好, 城市间的差异依然显著; (3)海洋经济系统的完善与韧性的提升主要依赖于海洋经济系统压力输出的持续减小, 以及适应与更新能力的提升, 而受生产力水平与扰动因素的影响较小; (4)为保持海洋经济持续健康增长, 应在强调可持续发展的同时, 注重提升海洋经济系统的韧性水平.

Assessment of marine economy resilience of coastal cities in Bohai Sea Ring Area based on entropy efficiency model

The sustainable development theory is difficult to explain why regional economy can keep growing under disturbance factors, whereas “resilience” is an important concept to analyze the evolution of regional economy. Based on the evolutionary resilience, this paper proposes the concept of marine economic system resilience and establishes an evaluation system on the basis of Information entropy. An entropy efficiency model is built based on entropy input and entropy output, and SBM model is applied to calculate the entropy efficiency of marine economic system of 17 coastal cities in Bohai Sea Ring Area over the past 16 years. Finally, the paper analyzes the entropy change process and the evolution law and mechanism of resilience of marine economic system. The concrete results are given as follows: (1) The development and resilience of marine economic system are driven by the negative entropy generated by entropy flow and entropy generation from 2000 to 2015. (2) The resilience of the marine economic system has experienced a process of improving on all fronts. At present, the overall resilience is relatively satisfying, but the significant differences can still be noted among cities. (3)The decrease of the output pressure and the increase of the adaptability and renewal capacity of marine economic system are the main causes contributing to the development and the improvement of its resilience. However, it is found that the productivity level and disturbance factors have less effect on them. Therefore, to maintain the sustained and healthy growth of marine economy, the resilience of marine economic system should be kept with improvement while emphasizing sustainable development.