养老金预测相关模型及替代率、收支平衡的分析

企业职工养老基金的收支平衡，关系到社会稳定和向老龄化社会的顺利过渡．利用微分方程、高阶函数建立了预测远期社会平均工资及职工在职时的工资模型，并经分析对比，选用与实际吻合较好的模型，以3种年龄段为例，计算分析了它们的养老金、替代率、收支等情况．结果表明：职工年平均工资高、退休年龄迟于60岁、缴费年数多于20年，则替代率高，能接近目标值；若基础养老金按现收现付方式管理，且按目前法定年龄退休，则缺口较大．因此，要从政策与管理等多方面采取有效措施，保障养老金保险制度顺利实施．

Pension Prediction Model and its Rate of Substitution, Balance of Revenue and Expenditure

Pension fund balance of enterprise workers concers the social stability and smooth transition to an aging society.The author uses differential equation and higher-order function to establish a model which can predict long term staff’s salary and average wage.Through comparison and analysis,a suitable model is chosen and an example including three different age cohorts is taken.In the end,it is concluded that,if the staff’s per capita annual salary is high,his retirement age can start after 60,and his payment year lasts for more than 20 years,as a result,the rate of substitution is high.If basic pension is under the management of pay-as-you-go,and the retirement age is carried out in accordance with the government statute,there will be a big gap.Therefore,it needs to take effective countermeasures on policy and management to guard the smooth implementation of pension insurance system.