Autoignition temperature: comprehensive data analysis and predictive models

ABSTRACT

Here we report a new predictive model for autoignition temperature (AIT), an important physical parameter widely used to assess potential safety hazards of combustible materials. Available structure-AIT data extracted from different sources were critically analysed. Support vector regression (SVR) models on different data subsets were built in order to identify a reliable compound set on which a realistic model could be built. This led to a selection of the dataset containing 875 compounds annotated with AIT values. The thereupon-based SVR model performs reasonably well in cross-validation with the determination coefficient r ² = 0.77 and mean absolute error MAE = 37.8°C. External validation on 20 industrial compounds missing in the training set confirmed its good predictive power (MAE = 28.7°C).