GA-ACE: Alternating conditional expectations regression with selection of significant predictors by genetic algorithms

The non-linear regression technique known as alternating conditional expectations (ACE) method is only applicable when the number of objects available for calibration is considerably greater than the number of considered predictors. Alternating conditional expectations regression with selection of significant predictors by genetic algorithms (GA-ACE), the non-linear regression technique presented here, is based on the ACE algorithm but introducing several modifications to resolve the applicability limitations of the original ACE method, thus facilitating the practical implementation of a very interesting calibration tool. In order to overcome the lack of reliability displayed by the original ACE algorithm when working on data sets characterized by a too large number of variables and prior to the development of the non-linear regression model, GA-ACE applies genetic algorithms as a variable selection technique to select a reduced subset of significant predictors able to accurately model and predict a considered variable response. Furthermore, GA-ACE actually provides two alternative application approaches, since it allows either the performance of prior data compression computing a number of principal components to be subsequently subjected to GA-selection, or working directly on original variables.In this study, GA-ACE was applied to two real calibration problems, with a very low observation/variable ratio (NIR data), and the results were compared with those obtained by several linear regression techniques usually employed. When using the GA-ACE non-linear method, notably improved regression models were developed for the two response variables modeled, with root mean square errors of the residuals in external prediction (RMSEP) equal to 11.51 and 6.03% for moisture and lipid contents of roasted coffee samples, respectively. The improvement achieved by applying the new non-linear method introduced is even more remarkable taking into account the results obtained with the best performance linear method (IPW-PLS) applied to predict the studied responses (14.61 and 7.74% RMSEP, respectively).