Probabilistic models and simulation methods for seismic ground acceleration

Probabilistic models of seismic ground acceleration are reviewed. The review includes uniformly modulated, oscillatory, amplitude and phase modulated, ARMA, and other processes. Moreover, a novel and general nonstationary Gaussian model is presented. The model consists of a superposition of harmonics with correlated Gaussian amplitudes. The harmonic frequencies and the amplitude probabilistic characteristics depend on the duration and the correlation of the target seismic ground motion, respectively. The model can be generalized to represent the seismic ground motion at two or more sites. Methods are also presented for generating realizations of the probabilistic models in the paper. The methods are applied to demonstrate the generation of artificial seismic ground motions and to evaluate the usefulness of various probabilistic models in earthquake engineering.Invited lecture presented at the 6th Italian National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Perugia, 13–15 October, 1993