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On the predictability of chaotic systems with respect to maximally effective computation time
Authors:Gao Xinquan  Feng Guolin  Dong Wenjie  Chou Jifan
Institution:(1) Department of Meteorological Sciences, Lanzhou University, 730000 Lanzhou, China;(2) Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100029 Beijing, China;(3) Mathematics and Physics College, Yangzhou University, 225009 Yangzhou, China
Abstract:The round-off error introduces uncertainty in the numerical solution. A computational uncertainty principle is explained and validated by using chaotic systems, such as the climatic model, the Rossler and super chaos system. Maximally effective computation time (MECT) and optimal stepsize (OS) are discussed and obtained via an optimal searching method. Under OS in solving nonlinear ordinary differential equations, the self-memorization equations of chaotic systems are set up, thus a new approach to numerical weather forecast is described. The project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40275031 and 40231006), the National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences (G1999043408) and the Key Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (K2CX1-10-07)
Keywords:climate prediction  chaotic systems  numerical calculation  maximally effective computation time  retrospective scheme
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