Simplified prediction of creep buckling of cylinders under external pressure. Part 1: finite element validation

In this paper, a simplified method is proposed for the prediction of creep buckling. This simplified approach relies upon a model which yields an analytical evaluation of creep buckling times for cylinders under external pressure. This model is fully developed herein, and a ‘closed-form’ solution is given for the evaluation of the critical creep collapse time. The collapse mechanism is assumed to be due to the formation of a plastic hinge which induces an unstable post-buckling of the ring. The analytical ‘closed-form’ creep collapse time is then compared to finite element buckling predictions using the quasi-axisymmetric COMU shell element in the INCA code of the CASTEM system. The model is then applied to four different cylinders under external pressure and compared to finite element predictions; the cylinders' radius-to-thickness ratio varies between 50 and 550. It is shown that the proposed model performs well for this type of prediction: in all cases, the times to failure predicted by the model are lower than the finite element predictions. These predictions prove to be rather conservative for thicker cylinders. It is shown that creep buckling is a very dangerous failure mode. If the shape of the structure is observed as a function of time, nothing seems to happen during a very long ‘incubation’ period; when the initial imperfection reaches some critical value, buckling then suddenly occurs. This phenomenon is shown by the two methods of evaluation presented herein.