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| NON-LINEAR DYNAMIC MODEL RETRIEVAL OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH BASED ON EMPIRICAL ORTHOGONAL FUNCTION AND GENETIC ALGORITHM | |
| 作者姓名： | 张韧 洪梅 孙照渤 牛生杰 朱伟军 闵锦忠 万齐林 |
| 作者单位： | [1]Institute of Meteorology, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 211101, P. R. China [2]Nanjing University of Information Science ＆ Technology, KLME, Nanjing 210044, P. R. China [3]Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA, Guangzhou 510080, P. R. China |
| 摘 要： | Aiming at the difficulty of accurately constructing the dynamic model of subtropical high, based on the potential height field time series over 500 hPa layer of T106 numerical forecast products, by using EOF(empirical orthogonal function) temporal-spatial separation technique, the disassembled EOF time coefficients series were regarded as dynamical model variables, and dynamic system retrieval idea as well as genetic algorithm were introduced to make dynamical model parameters optimization search, then, a reasonable non-linear dynamic model of EOF time-coefficients was established. By dynamic model integral and EOF temporal-spatial components assembly, a mid-/long-term forecast of subtropical high was carried out. The experimental results show that the forecast results of dynamic model are superior to that of general numerical model forecast results. A new modeling idea and forecast technique is presented for diagnosing and forecasting such complicated weathers as subtropical high. |
| 关 键 词： | 非线形动力模型 遗传算法 大气动力学 亚热带 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-08-16 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-07-15 |
Non-linear dynamic model retrieval of subtropical high based on empirical orthogonal function and genetic algorithm |
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| Ren Zhang Doctor,Mei Hong,Zhao-bo Sun,Sheng-jie Niu,Wei-jun Zhu,Jin-zhong Min,Qi-lin Wan.NON-LINEAR DYNAMIC MODEL RETRIEVAL OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH BASED ON EMPIRICAL ORTHOGONAL FUNCTION AND GENETIC ALGORITHM[J].Applied Mathematics and Mechanics(English Edition),2006,27(12):1645-1653. | |
| Authors: | Ren Zhang Doctor Mei Hong Zhao-bo Sun Sheng-jie Niu Wei-jun Zhu Jin-zhong Min Qi-lin Wan |
| Institution: | 1. Institute of Meteorology,PLA University of Science and Technology,Nanjing,211101,P.R.China;Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,KLME, Nanjing,210044,P. R. China;Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology,CMA,Guangzhou,510080,P. R. Chna 2. Institute of Meteorology, PLA University of Science and Technology,Nanjing,211101, P. R. China 3. Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,KLME, Nanjing,210044, P. R. China 4. Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA, Guangzhou,510080, P. R. China |
| Abstract: | Aiming at the difficulty of accurately constructing the dynamic model of subtropical high, based on the potential height field time series over 500 hPa layer of T106 numerical forecast products, by using EOF(empirical orthogonal function) temporal-spatial separation technique, the disassembled EOF time coefficients series were regarded as dynamical model variables, and dynamic system retrieval idea as well as genetic algorithm were introduced to make dynamical model parameters optimization search, then, a reasonable non-linear dynamic model of EOF time-coefficients was established. By dynamic model integral and EOF temporal-spatial components assembly, a mid-/long-term forecast of subtropical high was carried out. The experimental results show that the forecast results of dynamic model are superior to that of general numerical model forecast results. A new modeling idea and forecast technique is presented for diagnosing and forecasting such complicated weathers as subtropical high. |
| Keywords: | genetic algorithm empirical orthogonal function non-linear model retrieval subtropical high |
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