中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型在滑坡变形预测中的应用

黄龙西村滑坡位于甘肃天水,属黄土高势能滑坡,滑体体积3.9×10⁵m³,基底为花岗闪长岩。为了提高滑坡灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测精度,采用一种改变背景值的方法--中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型。通过黄龙西村滑坡实例验证分析,结果表明中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测值与该滑坡实际监测值十分接近,且其残差平方和及平均误差百分比明显比传统灰色GM(1,1)模型的残差平方和及平均误差百分比小,具有较高的预测精度。同时,可通过调整模型中参数m的取值,使中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型具有更高的预测精度。经计算,当m=6时,中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测精度比传统灰色GM(1,1)模型提高了5.34%。

APPLICATION OF CENTER APPROACH GREY GM (1,1) MODEL TO PREDICTION OF LANDSLIDE DEFORMATION WITH A CASE STUDY

Huanglongxicun landslide is located in Tianshui city of Gansu province. It belongs to loess landslide with high potential energy. With the volume capacity of 3.9×10⁵m³, its substratum is granodiorite. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of grey GM(1,1) model, center approach grey GM (1,1) model is used in the deformation prediction of Huanglongxicun landslide. It is indicated that the predicting values of center approach GM (1,1) model are well agreed with monitoring values for the landslide, and have much higher prediction accuracy than that of traditional grey GM(1,1) model because error sum of squares and error percent for center approach GM (1,1) model is lower than that of traditional grey GM(1,1) model. Moreover, the center approach GM (1,1) model can be improved by adjusting the value of the parameter m in the model. When m is equal to 6, prediction accuracy for center approach GM (1,1) model is over 5.34% than that of traditional grey GM(1,1) model.