小子样试验条件下的序贯概率圆精度检验方法

小子样试验条件下的精度评定问题是远程飞行器靶场试验的关键问题之一,属于未知参数的假设检验问题。通过分析装备飞行试验双方风险管控和试验成本,提出了基于序贯的命中精度概率圆鉴定方法。通过落点概率密度分布函数推导出概率圆计算公式,设计了假设条件下的概率圆计算流程和仿真算例,总结出概率圆半径、试验子样和双方风险的关系,讨论了检出比λ的使用原则,基于保证使用方风险不变的原则提出传统概率圆检验方法的修正策略。利用仿真试验结果证实了基于序贯的概率圆方法能够保证检验精度,并且提高了试验效益。飞行试验结果证实了该方法的可行性。

Sequential probability circle method for accuracy evaluation in small sample case

The accuracy evaluation in small sample case is very important for strategic missile test,and it is hypothesis test for unknown parameter.Sequential probability circle method for accuracy evaluation is proposed based on analysis of both producer risk and user risk in equipment flying test.Computation of probability circle is framed based on probability density function of impact point.Calculating process and simulation example are designed in the condition of supposition.The relationship of probability circle radius,test sample and both risks is founded.The principle of checkup proportion is discussed.The progressive method of conventional probability circle test is advanced based on invariability of user risk.Simulation experiment results show that the sequential probability circle method can keep checkup precision and improve test benefit.The flight test results approve the feasibility of this method.