地声参数及传播损失不确定性估计与建模

地声参数的不确定性对水声传播具有重要的影响。通过贝叶斯理论建立水声环境不确定性推理模型,理论推导了地声参数的似然函数以及地声参数和传播损失的后验概率密度,并采用MCMC(Markov Chain Monte Carlo)进行了仿真计算,给出了地声参数的二维后验联合概率密度和一维边缘概率密度,在此基础上对传播损失的不确定性进行了估计,得到了传播损失80%的可信区间。仿真和实验结果表明,该方法适用于地声参数反演和不确定性估计,并能获取因地声参数不确定性导致的传播损失不确定性估计。

Estimation and Modeling of Geoacoustic Parameters and Transmission Loss Uncertainty

Uncertainty of geoacoustic parameters has great effect on acoustic propagation, this paper modeling the uncertainty of acoustic environment via Bayes theorem, deduces the likelihood function of geoacoustic parameters and posterior probability distribution of geoacoustic parameters and transmission loss, and simulation uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). 2D and 1D posterior probability densities are given. Meanwhile, the uncertainty of transmission loss is estimated, The mean and 80% Credibility interval of transmission loss in different depth are given. The result of simulation and experiment show that the method is good at geoacoustic inversion and estimate uncertainty, and can get estimation of transmission loss uncertainty that caused by uncertainty of geoacoustic parameters.