动态水声环境不确定性的预报与估计

水声环境具有强烈的时空易变性,为了解其变化中的规律和产生的不确定性,将POM海洋数值模型和水声传播模型FOR3D进行耦合,建立海洋—声学耦合数值模式。对海区的温盐等环境参数和水下声场进行预报,给出了典型断面的温度垂直结构、实验海区声速剖面和传播损失。同时,采用集合卡尔曼滤波(EnKF)方法结合海洋—声学耦合数值模式分析了水声环境的不确定性,对不同深度与频率下,传播损失的均值与满足90%的可能区间进行了计算,同时给出了不同点声速、传播损失、声纳作用距离的不确定性直方图。和实验数据的对比结果表明该方法具有较高的有效性,能对水声环境的不确定性进行合理的预报与估计。

Uncertainty Estimation and Prediction for Dynamic Acoustic Environment

Acoustic environment is variable in time and space. In order to find out the uncertain characteristics, coupling the Princeton Ocean Model and acoustic propagation model FOR3D, make the ocean-acoustic coupled numerical model. Temperature, salt and other parameter of physical ocean and acoustic environment is predicted, the representative vertical temperature section, sound speed profile and transmission loss in experiment sea area is given. Meanwhile, use Ensemble Kalman Filter(EnKF) and Ocean-Acoustic coupled Model to analyse the uncertainty of acoustic environment. The mean and 90% likelihood interval of transmission loss at different depth and frequency, the uncertain histogram of sound speed, transmission loss and sonar detect range are given. Compare to the experimental data, the result show that the model and approach is valid, they can predict and estimat the uncertainty of acoustic environment.