基于灰色马尔科夫模型的团簇数量演变预测方法

本文以分子动力学方法模拟液态Si的凝固过程为基础,首次建立基于马尔科夫修正的灰色预测模型对不同团簇的演变过程进行分析,利用该模型对液态Si降温过程中团簇数量的变化进行预测.结果证实应用灰色马尔科夫模型在对团簇结构的演变预测是可行的,采用马尔科夫链预测方法能提高预测结果的准确性,该方法能有效描述凝固过程中团簇的形成和演变的整体变化规律,为研究材料微观结构演变提供了一种新的思路和方法 .

Prediction for number evolution of cluster based on Grey Markov model

In this paper, based on the evolution of clusters in liquid metal Si simulated by molecular dynamics method, the evolution of clusters in number has been analyzed. The gray prediction model is built to predict the evolution of cluster, and the Markov chain forecasting method is used to improve the accuracy of the prediction for the first time, and the results are quite acceptable, the dependability of Grey Markov model for such has been further verified by other four groups of dates with different characteritics (linear or nonlinear changes). All the results demonstrate that it is feasible to use the Grey Markov model in predicting evolution of the cluster numbers. The Gray Markov model may become a new method to address this kaid of issues.