On the predictability of the positions of the convergence zones in the ocean

The disagreement between the experimental and calculated positions of the first convergence zone are known from many publications. The most probable cause for such a disagreement, namely, the incorrect specification of the input data for the calculations, is considered. The lack of simultaneity between the hydrological surveys of the region and the acoustic experiments is emphasized. The experimental data obtained by the author in five ocean regions are presented. These data characterize the diurnal variability of the distance from the source to the nearest boundary of the convergence zone. The relations proposed by different researchers for calculating the sound speed from the temperature, salinity, and hydrostatic pressure are analyzed. It is shown that these relations lead to a substantial difference in the estimated depth dependence of the hydrostatic gradient of the sound speed. The position of the first convergence zone is calculated for the propagation conditions determined by vertical temperature and salinity profiles with the subsequent recalculation of these profiles into sound speed profiles by using eight different formulas known from the literature. It is shown that different formulas lead to different values of the distance to the first zone; this difference is substantially greater than that between the calculations and experiment. The necessity of improving the recalculation relations in view of the experimental data on sound propagation in natural oceanic waveguides, including the data on the actual positions of the convergence zones, is emphasized.