基于启发式分割算法检测华北和全球气候变化的特征

全球变化已成为当代科学界瞩目的新领域，气候变化是其研究的核心内容之一，它受到各国政府的极大重视.气候突变是气候变化的重要表现形式之一，目前对气候突变的研究主要针对代用资料，运用传统的统计学方法进行处理，尽管取得了不少进展，但气候系统的非线性、多层次性和非平稳性对分析和检测气候突变的方法提出了较高的要求.众所周知，气候系统可能是由多个不同区域气候子系统构成的复杂体系，因而局地和全球气候变化之间必然存在一定的内在联系，但目前关于这方面研究的理论和方法还较少.介绍了一种适合非线性和非平稳时间序列的突变检测新方法 关键词： 突变 启发式分割算法 人为变率 小冰期 全球变化

Analysis of features of climate change of Huabei area and the global climate change based on heuristic segmentation algorithm

Global change science is a new research field, and one of the most important topics of which is the climate change study, to which great importance is attached by all governments of the world, and climatic abrupt change is one of manifestations of climate changes. Nowadays, research of climate change is mainly based on climatic proxy using traditional statistical method. However, climatic system is nonlinear, non-stationary and hierarchical, which makes even harder to detect and analyze abrupt climate changes. As well known, climatic system is made up of several sub-systems, and there may be inherent connections between them; however, there is only a few research methods and theories in this field. This article introduces a new detecting method, the heuristic segmentation algorithm, which is well fitted to nonlinear and non-stationary time series. Then, dealing with northern hemisphere tree rings and Beijing stalagmite based on high and low frequency series, we try to distinguish abrupt changes in different sles and disclose its physial mechanism. Defining a new physical quantity, the abrupt density, and analyzing the distribution characteristics of abrupt changes before and after 1000 a, We take Huabei area's climatic change as an example to explore the inherent connections between local and global areas.