机动车协商模型与分岔特性研究

在环行交叉路口交通流中, 由于行驶目的的不同存在三种类型冲突. 为了真实模拟人类的自治性和智能性, 先将机动车建立为一个含有驾驶员模型的智能体, 再耦合环行交叉口的元胞自动机模型组成多智能体系统. 在总结每种类型交通冲突特点和规律的基础上, 提出通过优先级策略和动态协商机制消解机动车智能体相互之间的冲突问题. 以某中小城市城的典型环行交叉路口交通流量为样本数据, 对比验证模型的正确性, 并且进一步研究了交通流的分岔特性, 发现一定条件下流量的周期分岔和混沌现象. 数值模拟结果表明, 所建模型符合实际情况, 并且内环发生冲突越严重车流量越低, 随着机动车属性参数k和p的变化, 系统从稳定走向分岔再到混沌. 关键词： 多智能体 元胞自动机 协商 分岔

Vehicle negotiation model and bifurcation dynamic characteristics research

There are three kinds of conflicts in a traffic flow at the traffic circle because of track changing. We establish the driver model by regarding each vehicle as an intelligent agent which constitutes the multi-agent system by integrating the cellular automation model at the traffic circle. Besides, we put forward the problem how to eliminate the conflicts between the vehicle agents by priority strategy and dynamic negotiation mechanism. Take the traffic flow at the classic traffic circle of the suburban area of a small-medium city as the sample data to simulate and verify the accuracy of the model, and study the influences of some factors on the flow of motor vehicle, such as the proportion of different driver type and track changing probability, etc. The experimental result shows that the model constructed is consistent with the actual situation. Meanwhile, it is found that the driver characteristics have obvious influences on the flow, and the track changing probability follows, which does not have obvious influences on the fluctuation in the flow.
Keywords： multi-agent cellular automation negotiation bifurcation