中国人口分布规律及演化机理研究

近20年来，中国的总人口近似地按指数规律增加，但增加的速度有减缓的趋势.省、市、县三级的人口分布具有相似的规律：人口数k小的各级人口分布随k缓慢地变化；而k较大时，人口分布随k急剧变化，满足齐普夫定律.研究结果表明中国人口系统的各级分布具有自相似性.采用无标度网络上的聚集体迁移模型较好地解释了中国人口分布的演化规律. 关键词： 人口分布 齐普夫定律 迁移 动力学行为

Rules of the population distribution of China and its evolution mechanism

The characteristics of the population distribution of China is analyzed based on the method of statistical physics. The results show that in the last 20 years, the total population of China increases roughly exponentially with time and the growth rate is found to be slowing down. The population distribution in provinces, cities or counties follows approximately the same rule: the population distribution changes slowly for small k, while it changes rapidly for large k and the distribution obeys the Zipf's law. This shows that the population distribution of China has self-similarity. A solvable model of migration-driven aggregate growth based on scale-free network is also proposed to simulate the population size distribution of China. It is found that the theoretical results are in good agreement with the realistic data.