欧亚中高纬阻塞高压关键区高度场动力-统计跨季度预测实验

本文主要利用实际业务模式的预报结果和丰富的历史资料对乌拉尔山、 贝加尔湖和鄂霍次克海三个阻塞高压活动关键区夏季平均的500 hPa高 度场进行动力-统计跨季度预测实验, 其结果显示该方法能在一定程度上减小模式预报误差, 提高预报技巧, 显示出了良好的业务应用前景. 此外, 敏感性实验显示, 相似指标和相似年选取个数都对预测结果有显著影响. 关键词： 阻塞高压 高度场 动力-统计 跨季度预测

The experiments of transseasonal prediction by combining together the dynamical and statistical methods of the geopotential height fields on the blocking high in the Eurasia mid-high latitudes

The blocking high in Eurasia mid-high latitudes (EMHBH) is one of the leading members of East Asian summer monsoon circulation system, which also has a crucial influence on the summer flood/drought in China, especially in the region of Yangtze River. However, the objective quantitative prediction of EMHBH is an urgent issue we are facing and also a complicated problem in the current short-term climate prediction. This paper, by using the dynamical and statistical prediction (DSP) methods and based on the forecast data of the numerical modal(CGCM) and the abundant historical observations, has carried out prediction experiments of the above three blocking high regions in the summer averaged 500 hPa geopotential height fields. The results show that the DSP methods can diminish the prediction errors to some extent, which is also suitable for operational application. In addition, sensitivity tests show that the selection of the number of similar targets or similar yeas has significant influences on the prediction results.
Keywords： blocking high geopotential height fields dynamical and statistical transseasonal prediction experiment