基于遗传优化的西太平洋副高异常活动年份的动力预报模型反演

基于2000–2010年NECR/NECP的500 hPa位势场资料, 用EOF时空分解方法和动力模型重构思想, 通过遗传算法的全局优化搜索和并行计算途径, 开展了500 hPa位势场动力预报模型反演, 建立了刻画副高活动的非线性动力预报模型, 实现了副高活动的中长期预报. 模型预报试验表明, 该模型对副高的中长期活动, 尤其是异常活动能够较好地描述和预报, 进而为副高等复杂天气系统的预报探索了新的方法思路. 关键词： 副热带高压 500 hPa位势场 动力模型反演 遗传算法

Retrieving dynamic forecast model of the western pacific subtropical high in abnormal years based on GA

On the basis of the potential field data on 500 hPa from 2000-2010 from NCEP/NCAR, introducing the ideas of EOF(empirical orthogonal function) time-space separation and the dynamic system reconstruction of time series, with the advantages of the global optimization and parallel calculation by genetic assistance, dynamic model inversion is carried out, thus a nonlinear forecast model of the subtropical high activity and aberrance is established. And a mid/long-range forecast of subtropical high activity was carried out. The results of dynamic model forecast experiment showed that the mid/long-range forecast of subtropical high pressure by our model can be very actual. Especially, the aberrance of the subtropical high pressure can be drawn and forecast. A new method of idea is presented for diagnosing and forecasting such complicated weathers as subtropical high activity.