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中国近58年温度极端事件的区域特征及其与气候突变的联系
引用本文:龚志强,王晓娟,支蓉,封国林.中国近58年温度极端事件的区域特征及其与气候突变的联系[J].物理学报,2009,58(6):4342-4353.
作者姓名:龚志强  王晓娟  支蓉  封国林
作者单位:(1)常熟理工学院物理与电子工程学院,常熟 215500; (2)国家气候中心中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京 100081;中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室,北京 100029; (3)扬州大学物理科学与技术学院,扬州 225002;国家气候中心中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京 100081
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划( 批准号:2006CB400503)、国家自然科学基金(批准号:40675044)和国家科技支撑计划(批准号:2007BAC29B01) 资助的课题.
摘    要:运用动力学自相关因子指数Q分析中国温度的时空变化特征,得到8个不同的动力学温度变化特征区:准噶尔区、 东北区、西北区、西南东区、西南西区、华北区、东南区和中南区.初步讨论了这些特征区的年均温度变化和极端温度年出现天数及其与温度突变的关系,以及不同温度段对中国近58年增暖的可能影响.研究结果表明:(1)准噶尔区、东北区等7个温度特征区近58年的年均温和极端高温的年出现天数均表现为增长趋势,极端低温天数则为降低趋势,极端高温的变化与温度增暖呈正相关,与极端低温则呈负相关.同时,北方涛动、南方涛动 关键词: Q指数')" href="#">Q指数 温度段 极端温度 温度突变

关 键 词:Q指数  温度段  极端温度  温度突变
收稿时间:2007-11-30

Regional characteristics of temperature changes in China during the past 58 years and its probable correlation with abrupt temperature change
Gong Zhi-Qiang,Wang Xiao-Juan,Zhi Rong,Feng Guo-Lin.Regional characteristics of temperature changes in China during the past 58 years and its probable correlation with abrupt temperature change[J].Acta Physica Sinica,2009,58(6):4342-4353.
Authors:Gong Zhi-Qiang  Wang Xiao-Juan  Zhi Rong  Feng Guo-Lin
Abstract:Based on recent studies of nonlinear science, we reconstruct dynamics of National Centre of Environment Prediction (NCEP) daily temperature series from 1948 to 2005 of grids located in China with the time-delay method and then analyse the dynamics structure by using dynamical correlation factor exponent Q.Eight significant temperature change regions are obtained. The characteristics of temperature changes and frequencies of extreme temperature in these regions are discussed, and the probable correlations between temperature changes and frequencies of extreme temperature are studied. Results indicate that, 1) the temperature and frequencies of extreme high temperature in ZhunGe’Er and North China both increased during the past 58 years, while frequencies of extreme low temperature in South China decreased. Furthermore, north oscillation, south oscillation, North Pacific oscillation and El Nio-south oscillation have distinct influence on temperature changes in North China, North-East China, west of West-South China and east of West-South China, while El Nio has distinct influence on South China and South East China. 2) The reason for warming during the past 58 years might be the increase of frequencies of extreme high temperature and the decrease of frequencies of extreme low temperature. 3) The abrupt change of extreme high/low temperature in the 1970s is 3—4 years later than that of abrupt temperature change. That is to say, the process of abrupt temperature change might be the inter-grade of extreme temperature from one stationary period to another stationary one.
Keywords:Q index  temperature segment  extreme temperature  abrupt temperature change
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