复杂网络上的意见动力学对谣言传播的影响

通过在SIR(susceptible-infected-recovered)模型中引入抑制者对谣言的辟谣机制研究了在线社交网络上的意见动力学对谣言传播的影响.在这一模型中,节点可以与自身的邻居组成1个群,传播者可以通过该群传播信息,抑制者也可以在此群中对信息发表意见进行辟谣.辟谣机制在降低未知者对于谣言的接受概率的同时也可以促使传播者向抑制者转变.本文采用ER(Erd?s-Rényi)随机网络、无标度网络以及真实的社交网络研究了抑制者的沉默概率对于谣言传播范围的影响.首先发现,谣言传播的过程以传播者的峰值为界可以分为两个阶段,即谣言自由传播的前期以及抑制者和传播者互相制衡的后期;其次,谣言的传播会随着抑制者的沉默概率的增大而突然暴发.在谣言暴发阈值之下,沉默概率的增大不会导致谣言传播范围显著增大,这是由于未知者在感知到谣言并转变为传播者后又迅速转变为抑制者;而当沉默概率达到谣言暴发阈值时,抑制者将不能控制传播者对谣言的传播从而导致抑制者的降低和谣言的暴发;最后,无标度上的谣言自由传播的前期阶段比随机网络持续的时间更短,从而使无标度上的谣言更难以暴发.本文的模型综合考虑了意见动力学和谣言传播的相互作用,更加真实地模拟了真实世界社交网络中的谣言传播过程.为谣言传播的控制和干预提供了一些有用的思路和见解.

Influence of opinion dynamics on rumor propagation in complex networks

In this paper,the influence of opinion dynamics on rumor propagation is studied by introducing the mechanism of stifler’s comments on rumors into the susceptible-infected-recovered(SIR)model.In this model,individuals can form a group together with their direct neighbors,through which the spreader can spread rumors,and the stiflers can express opinions and refute the rumors.The mechanism of rumor refuting can not only reduce the acceptance rate of the ignorant to rumor,but also increase the transition probability of the spreader to be a stifler.In this paper,we use the Erd?s-Rényi(ER)random network,scale-free network and real social network as the underlying interaction structure to study the influence of stifler’s silence probability on the rumor spreading dynamics.First of all,we find that the process of rumor propagation can be roughly divided into two stages,i.e.,the early stage of free propagation of rumors and the later stage of checks and balances between the stiflers and the spreaders,respectively.Secondly,it is found that the rumor will break out with the increase of stifler’s silence probability.Under a threshold of rumor outbreak,the increase of silence probability will not lead the number of spreaders to significantly increase,but will cause more ignorance to perceive the rumor and quickly turn into spreaders,and then change into stiflers under the guidance of other stiflers.When the silence probability reaches a threshold,the stiflers will not be able to control the spread of rumors,which will lead the number of stiflers to decrease and the rumors to break out.Finally,the early stage of rumor propagation in scale-free networks is shorter than that of random network,which makes rumor more difficult to break out.Our model comprehensively considers the influence of opinion dynamics on the spreading of rumors and more realistically simulates the rumor diffusion process,which provides a useful insight for the rumor control in real-world social networks.