社会群体中观点的信任、演化与共识

针对连续观点动力学模型中缺乏对个体信任及其观点的不同权重的考虑,本文通过扩展HegselmannKrause模型,引入个体间的信任度和观点间的相似度,将有限信任假设扩展为有限影响假设,建立带权重的观点更新模型,以研究社会群体中少数的偏执个体和权威个体对观点形成、演化以及共识构建过程的影响.仿真结果表明,这两类个体的初始观点尽量接近观点分布区间中点0.5或者增加偏执个体的影响阈值和权威个体的可信任程度可以使群体形成更少和更大的观点簇.随着偏执个体的影响阈值增加,最大簇的观点位置集中于0.5附近;而增加权威个体的可信任程度,最大簇的观点不断接近权威个体的最终观点.模型结果能够在一定程度上反映和解释现实社会中偏执个体和权威个体现象.

Trust,evolution, and consensus of opinions in a social group

Most dynamical models with continuous opinion lack the considerations of trust between individuals and different weights of opinions. This article extends the Hegselmann-Krause model by introducing the trust between individuals and the similarity between opinions, and extending the hypothesis of bounded confidence to bounded influence. Finally, the model of opinion updating with weights is proposed. We have studied the formation, evolution of opinions in a social group and consensus-building process under the influence of a few of narrow-minded and authoritative individuals. Simulation results show that decreases of the difference between the initial opinions of two types of individuals and the midpoint of distribution range (0.5), or increases of the influence thresholds of narrow-minded individuals and the trust degree of authoritative individuals would form larger and fewer opinion clusters. As the influence thresholds of narrow-minded individuals increases, the opinion of maximum cluster concentrates at near 0.5, but the trust degree of authoritative individuals will increases to make the opinion of maximum cluster constantly approach the final opinion of authoritative individuals. These results can reflect and explain the realistic social phenomenon with narrow-minded individuals and authoritative individuals to a certain extent.
Keywords： opinion dynamics consensus/dissent bounded influence opinion evolution