Periodic cycles of social outbursts of activity

We study the long-time behavior of a $2\times 2$ continuous dynamical system with a time-periodic source term which is either of cooperative-type or activator–inhibitor type. This system was recently introduced in the literature 2] to model the dynamics of social outbursts and consists of an explicit field measuring the level of activity and an implicit field measuring the effective tension. The system can be used to represent a general type of phenomena in which one variable exhibits self-excitement once the other variable has reached a critical value. The time-periodic source term allows one to analyze the effect that periodic external shocks to the system play in the dynamics of the outburst of activity. For cooperative systems we prove that for small shocks the level of activity dies down whereas, as the intensity of the shocks increases, the level of activity converges to a positive periodic solution (excited cycle). We further show that in some cases there is multiplicity of excited cycles. We derive a subset of these results for the activator–inhibitor system.